This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
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College Football Picks: LSU vs. Alabama Best Bets
As we near the end of the regular season, another historic division rivalry is set to help determine the SEC West. LSU will square off with Alabama following a one-point upset in last year's matchup. Jayden Daniels will look to repeat history and be the second quarterback to beat Nick Saban in back-to-back years since Drew Brees in 1998 and 1999. That will be a tough ask this week against a Crimson Tide team that features one of college football's best defenses and an offense that is playing its best football of the year.
LSU vs Alabama Betting Odds for Week 10
Spread: Alabama -3 (DraftKings Sportsbook); LSU +3 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Alabama -155 (DraftKings Sportsbook); LSU +138 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Total: Over 61.5 (BetMGM); Under 61.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
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LSU vs Alabama Betting Picks for Week 10
The spread has slowly dropped since the end of last week, coming down from LSU +4 to +3 since Monday. The total has also moved slightly, bumping up from 60 to 61.5 in the same timeframe. While the spread and total have fluctuated throughout the week, the moneyline odds have stagnated.
LSU vs Alabama Expert Pick: Alabama -3 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Saturday's matchup will feature strength versus strength, with the high-powered LSU offense squaring up against a stout Alabama defense. A quick dive into the numbers shows that LSU is number one in the country in Offensive Success Rate, while Alabama is second in the nation in Defensive Success Rate (via CFB-Graphs). Both rates are metrics that measure how often a play produces positive Expected Points Added (EPA), another metric tracking yard-to-point translation on a per-play basis. Delving deeper into those numbers reveals the Tigers near the top of the charts at fourth in the nation in Expected Points Added Per Pass (EPA/pass) and first in EPA/rush (EPA metrics via CFB-Graphs). On the other side of the ball, the Crimson Tide defense ranks 11th in the nation in EPA/pass and 21st in EPA/rush. Flipping the field, the LSU defense has noticeably struggled this year, while the Alabama offense has steadily improved as the season progresses. The LSU defense sits at 92nd in the nation in Defensive Success Rate while standing at 88th in EPA/pass and 77th in EPA/rush. Meanwhile, the Crimson Tide are slightly above average at 51st in Offensive Success Rate while standing at 42nd in the nation in EPA/pass and 43rd in EPA/rush.
LSU vs Alabama Predictions for Week 10
This matchup is a timeless one, where we see a high-powered offense with a lackluster defense challenging a top-end defense. These games typically favor the better defense, as most CFB fans will know. However, to secure the victory, the Crimson Tide will have to corral Jayden Daniels, whose name is up there in the Heisman discussion. Last year, Daniels wreaked havoc with his legs against a Crimson Tide defense that struggled against high-end offenses. For Alabama to succeed this year, they will look to keep Daniels in the pocket and prevent him from extending plays with his legs. Alabama has succeeded in slowing down dual-threat quarterbacks this season, as Joe Milton of Tennessee, KJ Jefferson of Arkansas, and Byrum Brown of USF all struggled against the Crimson Tide defense. However, none of those quarterbacks are of the same caliber as Daniels. One of the major factors for the Crimson Tide that needs to be accounted for is the play of Jalen Milroe over the past few games. Milroe has completed 60% of his passes for an average of 259.7 yards passing over his last three games, with a total of seven touchdowns and two interceptions. In the clash between a high-flying offense and a smothering defense, I lean towards the smothering defense. Couple that with the impressive play of Milroe recently; I believe the Crimson Tide have a recipe for success in this one: take Alabama to cover -3.
