This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
Louisville vs. Duke Betting Odds and Best Bets
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Louisville emerges from a bye and will look to get the bad taste out of their mouths after an upset loss at Pittsburgh when they battle Duke on Saturday afternoon. The Cardinals sit at 6-1 SU and 3-4 ATS, with the total going over four times so far this season. Duke is off their first conference loss last week at Florida State, hitting the road for the second straight time. They're 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS, with the total going over three times, under three times, and one landing right on the number.
Louisville vs. Duke Betting Odds for Week 9
Spread: Louisville -5.5 (BetMGM)
Total: 46.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Louisville -218 (DraftKings Sportsbook); Duke +188 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
The spread has moved so much that I've had to rewrite this piece and rethink my strategy in attacking this game. It opened at -4.5, fell a point, moved back to its opening number, and then between 2:00 and 4:00 EDT, we saw an additional one or two-point swing. Nothing has been confirmed, but this seems to insinuate Duke QB Riley Leonard will miss this game with a lingering ankle injury. The spread is sitting at -6 or -6.5 for most books, and I wouldn't be surprised to see it finish at -7 or higher
The total is following suit. It opened at 47.5 and has seen a steady decline. Some books have it as low as 45 as of Friday afternoon. I'd anticipate this moving downward once injury issues are confirmed.
As expected, the moneyline numbers are moving heavily as well and are currently at their widest disparity. I honestly don't hate a dart throw on the Blue Devils here but for a small fraction of a unit. Louisville now only looks appealing as a throw-in to a moneyline parlay.
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Louisville vs. Duke Betting Picks for Week 9
We're now assuming Riley Leonard sits this game out due to the heavy line movement toward the Cardinals. Backup Henry Belin has been nothing short of bad as a replacement, completing just 5-of-18 passes for 114 yards while somehow amassing two touchdowns. He's led this offense to just those two scores in roughly six quarters of play.
An underlooked injury scare in this game is that of Louisville RB Jawhar Jordan, who is questionable with a hamstring issue. He's averaging a massive 7.4 yards per carry, while backup Isaac Guerendo got only 2.9 ypc at Pittsburgh following Jordan's injury.
I trust Duke's defense to be motivated here and will overlook their fourth quarter at FSU last week. They were on the field too often, with Belin not moving the offense. They'll be coached up, per usual, and competitive. I just don't see how the Blue Devils score. Louisville is elite against the run, allowing just 97.1 ypg and 3.1 ypc. Personally, if you're betting just before kickoff, see how low the under falls or see how much the Cardinals are favored by. I don't trust Jack Plummer, but I trust him far better than Belin. Duke won't score much, if any, without Leonard, and their defense is good enough not to allow the Cardinals to do this all by themselves.
Louisville vs. Duke Best Bet: Under 46.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook
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Louisville vs. Duke Predictions for Week 9
The game script has been completely flipped now that Leonard seems unlikely to play. You'd assume Duke HC Mike Elko has known this despite labeling his starter as day-to-day and will have game-planned all week, as they did against North Carolina State two weeks ago. It's just not enough. Duke doesn't have enough skilled players to get this done.
Both teams have just one loss in conference, but Louisville has home games ahead with Virginia and Virginia Tech, both very manageable. They win here and keep their conference championship game hopes alive. This likely doesn't have great watchability, however. LOUISVILLE 24-10.
