This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
Gasparilla Bowl Picks: Florida vs. Tulane
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Florida vs. Tulane Gasparilla Bowl Betting Odds
Spread: Tulane +10.5 (-105, BetMGM); Florida -10 (-110 ESPN Bet)
Total: Over 49.5 (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook); Under 49.5 (-105, Caesars Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Tulane +340 BetMGM); Florida -380 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Florida vs. Tulane Gasparilla Bowl Betting Picks
The Tulane Green Wave (9-4) meet the Florida Gators (7-5) in the Gasparilla Bowl on Friday at Raymond James Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed or streamed on ESPN2.
Tulane was worked over 35-14 by Army in the American Athletic Conference (AAC) championship game at Michie Stadium in West Point. It was a second straight loss for head coach Jon Sumrall's Green Wave, which comes on the heels of an eight-game win streak. Tulane was 7-1 against the spread (ATS) in that win streak, too, but it has failed to cover in two in a row, too.
Florida pounded rival Florida State on Nov. 30 in its most recent game, covering as a 16.5-point favorite. The Gators have won and covered three in a row, as head coach Billy Napier turned the temperature down on his hot seat quite a bit. And bettors have loved the Gators lately, going 8-1 ATS in the past nine outings, while the Under has cashed in three in a row.
Unfortunately, we have to deal with the opt-outs and transfer portal players because that's college football in 2024. The Green Wave will be without QB Darian Mensah, as he has already committed to Manny Diaz and Duke in the ACC for 2025. In addition, backup QBs Kai Horton and Ty Thompson are both in the portal, too, although Thomas has stated he will still stick and start.
On the defensive side of the ball, DL Parker Petersen has also bounced, as moves to Wisconsin, while DE Matthew Fobbs-White is headed for Baylor. Meanwhile, DB Calen Ransaw is a potential opt-out candidate.
For Florida, the portal hits aren't as terrible. OLB T.J. Searcy is a big one, while DE Justus Boone and DL Kelby Collins are also on the way out. Perhaps the most famous defection was DL Jack Pyburn, who was asking for certain playing time "guarantees." Napier lets him walk, and he goes to LSU.
As far as possible opt outs, WR Elijhah Badger and DT Cam Jackson have said they will play. RB Montrell Johnson isn't as much of a certainty. Even if Johnson cannot go, RB Jadan Baugh is more than capable.
Under center, QB Graham Mertz is long since gone to a knee injury, and it's been the QB D.J. Lagway show. He completed 59.2 percent of his passes for 1,610 yards, 11 TDs and 7 INTs, while running for 97 yards. No one is confusing him with Anthony Richardson, that's for sure.
The Green Wave aren't as deep, and this game is being played in Florida. There will be a lot of orange and blue invading the RayJay thanks to the quick trip down Interstate 75 from Gainesville. It will be Swamp South, and not very welcoming for the Green Wave. With an inexperienced QB going for Tulane, and more consistency and continuity for Florida, let's lay the big points with UF.
Florida vs. Tulane Expert Pick: Gators -10 (-110 at ESPN Bet)
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Tulane vs. Florida Predictions for Gasparilla Bowl
As far as the total is concerned, again, Tulane has some personnel issues on offense. It's going to be difficult going from Mensah to Thompson, which is quite a drop-off in talent.
The Florida defense was rather so-so, allowing 392.3 total yards per game while coughing up 236.1 passing yards per outing. Again, the latter isn't as bad, as Tulane started an inexperienced guy. While Thompson has had some packages designed for him previously, it's mostly been the Mensah show. The Gators allowed a respectable 24.3 PPG, too.
The Tulane defense has tailed off, allowing 34.5 PPG in the past two losses to Memphis and Army, but Florida will have a difficult time getting to that type of production. It just isn't a quick-strike offense, although getting into the high 20s or around 30 wouldn't be a shocker.
Side with the Under here unless this line were to drop down to the neighborhood of 47 to 47.5.
