This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Week 7 Betting Roundup
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The huge showdown in the Pac-12 conference between the Oregon Ducks and the host Washington Huskies provided one of the most exciting games in recent memory, with Washington winning 38-35 and pushing as 3-point favorites. With the win, Washington quarterback Michael Penix, Jr. became the Heisman favorite at -130 as offered at DraftKings. Next in line to hoist the hardware is Oklahoma quarterback Dillon Gabriel at +1000, then Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy at +1000, then Florida States' quarterback Jordan Travis at +1200, and rounding out the Top-5, LSU's quarterback Jayden Daniels at +1400.
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College Football Betting Algorithm
The following betting algorithm has earned a highly profitable 61-34 ATS record for 64% winning bets spanning the last 20 seasons. The requirements are:
1. Bet on any road team from Week 6 on out.
2. The road team lost to the host in their previous meeting.
3. The host is coming off their first loss of the season.
A deeper look into the database reveals a subset that has produced a highly profitable 28-11 ATS for 72% winning bets over the past 20 seasons if our team is a home favorite of 17.5 or more points. This betting algorithm targets a best-bet opportunity on the Washington State Cougars when they take a road trip as 20-point underdogs to play the Oregon Ducks set to start at 3:30 PM EST, Saturday.
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College Football Expert Picks For Week 8
Double-digit underdogs to monitor in Week 8
The big dogs have always been a target for potential betting opportunities and are the teams to reinvest your money in this season. Road underdogs of 17.5 or more points have gone just 7-167 for 4% upset wins but have produced a money-making 97-73-4 ATS mark for 57% winning bets this season. Moreover, slicing the data a bit more reveals that road dogs of 17.5 or more points in a game with a posted total between 50 and 56 points have gone a solid 43-26-1 ATS for 62.3% winning bets this season. Moreover, home underdogs of 17.5 more points have gone 0-5-1 SU, but a near-perfect 5-1 ATS for 83% winning bets.
1. SMU Mustangs vs Temple Owls +17.5 set to kickoff at 7:30 PM EST, Friday.
College Football Expert Best Bet: Under 44 Eastern Michigan vs. Northern Illinois (DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Eastern Michigan Eagles vs Northern Illinois Huskies
Huskie Stadium, Dekalb, IL
Northern Illinois -11.5 | Total: 44 points
3:30 PM EST | ESPN+
This game is a showdown in the MAC Conference, with both teams at 2-1 in conference play. EMU is 4-3 SU and ATS, while NIU is 3-4 ST and 4-3 ATS for the season. The EMU offense is led by Austin Smith, who has amassed 952 passing yards on 57% completions and produced a 119-quarterback rating. He has done far better in conference games, sporting a 129-quarterback rating and a 60% completion percentage. The NIU offense is led by Rocky Lombardi, who has completed 57% of passes, gaining 1,187 yards with six touchdowns and four interceptions, resulting in a 123-quarterback rating. Like his counterpart, he has done much better in conference games, earning an outstanding 166 quarterback rating on 66% completions, including five touchdowns.
For the season, NIU averages 24.9 points per game (PPG) but has struggled at home, scoring an average of just 16 PPG. EMU has averaged 19 PPG for the season but a horrid 9.7 PPG in road games. NIU is allowing 16.7 PPG in home matchups this season, and their game plan will be to control the clock and grind out time-consuming scoring drives.
From my predictive model, NIU is expected to contain the EMU offense to 100 or fewer rushing yards and 175 or fewer passing yards. In past games in which they met or exceeded these performance measures, the Under produced a 14-5 for 74% winning bets.
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