College Football Picks: Week 12 Recap and Best Bets for Week 13

This article is part of our College Football Picks series.

College Football Week 12 Betting Roundup

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In Week 12, action in college football favorites went 55-14 straight-up (SU) and 34-33-2 against the spread (ATS). The market was priced quite well on double-digit home favorites as they went 24-3 SU and 13-14 ATS for 48% winners. For the season, double-digit home favorites have seen just 22 upsets among 330 games and have produced a 154-170-6 ATS record for 47.5% winning tickets. 

In games with a posted total of 60 or more points, double-digit home favorites have gone 64-1 SU and 37-28 ATS for 57% winning bets, but just 2-11 ATS if on the road this season. Double-digit road favorites have done much better when the total was 50 or fewer points, posting a 29-4 SU record and 20-13 ATS mark good for 61% winning bets. 

In a matchup of ranked opponents, the home team has gone 26-12 SU and 23-12-2 ATS for 64% winning bets this season. Ranked home teams with a posted total of fewer than 60 points and facing a ranked foe have gone 19-8 SU and 17-9-1 ATS for 65.4% winning bets this season. 

In Week 13 action, there are two monumental games of ranked matchups. Oregon dines themselves priced as a 13.5-point home favorite with a total of 62.5 points when they take on their PAC-12 rival, Oregon State. In the Big Ten, the much-anticipated showdown of two Top-5 ranked teams will take place when the Buckeyes take to the road to face the Wolverines, who are priced as 4-point favorites and with a game total of 47.5 points. 

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College Football Betting Algorithm

The following college football betting algorithm has produced a 56-4 SU record and a 42-18 ATS mark, good for 70% winning bets since 2010. The requirements are:

·      Bet on double-digit favorites up -21.5 points.

·      The favorite has lost their last two games

·      The favorite has won between 40 and 50% of their games on the season.

Drilling down a bit deeper into the database and filtering all games between a total of 50 and 59.5 points improves the record of these favorites to a highly profitable 29-2 SU mark and 23-8 ATS mark, good for 74.2% winning bets. 

This Algorithm instructs us to make a solid bet in a Sun Belt Conference matchup on Louisiana-Lafayette when they host Louisiana-Monroe. Lafayette is currently priced as a 12.5-point favorite with a posted total of 52.

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College Football Expert Picks for Week 13

Double-digit underdogs to monitor in Week 12 based on the models

College Football Best Bet for Week 13: Florida State -6.5 points vs. Florida (DraftKings Sportsbook)

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The Florida State Seminoles are ranked fourth in the College Football Playoff rankings and undefeated at 11-0 and will be taking to the road to Gainesville and the Swamp to face the Florida Gators. FSU is priced as a 6.5-point road favorite with a posted total of 51 points. Dating back to 1989, FSU owns a 19-15-1 SU record and an 18-7 ATS mark for 51.4% winning tickets when facing Florida. When traveling to Gainesville, FSU is 8-9 SUATS since 1989 but has won five of the last six ATS. 

Last year, FSU was priced as a home underdog of 9.5 points and defeated Florida 45-38, and the 83 total points scored easily went over the closing total of 58.5 points. So, Florida is playing with revenge, but that has not been a factor for FSU, who is 6-3 SUATS when having defeated Florida at home in the previous meeting. 

FSU has a tremendous offense that ranks 8th nationally, scoring an average of 38.3 PPG. Despite losing Heisman candidate Jordan Travis for the season last Saturday, the Noles turn to a solid backup option in Tate Rodemaker, who completed 12 of his 23 pass attempts for 217 yards and two touchdowns against North Alabama. Florida's defense has not been consistent this season and ranks 94th nationally, allowing 30 PPG, 131st, allowing 6.8 yards per play, and 106th, allowing 252 passing yards per game. FSU should still have the advantage when they have the ball in this matchup. 

FSU is still a complete team on both sides of the ball and ranks 9th nationally, allowing 17.3 PPG and 7th with a 0.254 points per play ratio. The unit has been at its best in third situations when they rank third, allowing just 27.7% converted third downs. I do not see how Florida will be able to keep pace with FSU on the scoreboard and produce time-consuming scoring drives. If Florida finds itself in constant third down and long situations, Florida will struggle in this one.

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A Betting Algorithm that Supports This Betting Opportunity

The following betting algorithm supports a bet on FSU and has produced an outstanding 45-21-1 ATS record for 68% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are:

·      Bet on road favorites.

·      Our favorite is facing a host that has averaged 400 or more yards per game on the season.

·      The host also has allowed 500 or more yards in each of their two previous games.

I am betting on FSU at -6.5 points and expect them to win this rivalry game by double-digits.