This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Picks: Utah vs. Arizona State
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Two 4-1 teams collide late Friday evening when No. 16/17 Utah travels to Tempe to face Arizona State, who got one vote in the Coaches Poll. The Utes are just 2-3 ATS (1-1 on the road), with their games going under the listed total four times. Arizona State is 4-1 ATS (3-0 at home), with their games going over three times.
Utah vs. Arizona State Betting Odds for Week 7
Spread: Utah -5.5 (-105 Caesars Sportsbook); Arizona State +6.5 (-118 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Total: Over 45.5 (-115 FanDuel Sportsbook); Under 46.5 (-110 ESPN Bet)
Moneyline: Utah -210 (BetMGM); Arizona State +190 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
It's been a bumpy ride for the spread here, and it all centers on the health and availability of Utah QB Cameron Rising. Ironically, we're essentially back where we started, as the Utes opened at (-5), climbed to (-6.5), dropped briefly as low as (-3.5), and are now trending back upward as word Thursday evening is that Rising will play. The number above at (-5.5) likely won't be available by kickoff.
Rising's availability also has the total rising too, pun intended! It opened at 45.5, dipped to 43.5, and now most sites have it at 46.5. Again, it's unlikely the FanDuel number above will be available by kickoff, barring another status change for Rising.
Moneyline odds, too, have fluctuated throughout the week, given the varying comments on Rising's availability from head coach Kyle Whittingham. And while reports are that he'll start, as of 6:00 p.m. EDT Thursday, they are just that, reports. This got as high as (-258) for the Utes and (+210) for Arizona State. There's honestly still value on both sides, but again, I'd expect more fluctuation before late Friday.
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Utah vs. Arizona State Betting Picks for Week 7
Have you noticed a trend with the intro and line breakdowns? Good, because I hope I'm laying it on pretty thick; this game almost entirely relies on Rising playing for the Utes. He has a sterling 7:0 TD:INT ratio in less than six quarters, while backup/fill-in starter Isaac Wilson is sitting at 6:7 with far more playing time, completing 55.7 percent of his passes. But we've seen Rising cleared in previous weeks, reports of him being in line to start, only to have a switcheroo pulled on us near or even after kickoff. As such, I can't advocate a play on the spread for either side.
You can obviously make the same argument with the total: Rising plays, we like the over, he doesn't, we like the under. But perhaps it's not that simple. Wilson has put up just 32 points in roughly 2.5 games against Big 12 competition; that's a concern. But Arizona State isn't a defensive juggernaut. Their rushing stats are skewed by a dominant first two weeks, and they can be thrown on, allowing 260+ yards in three of four and an 11:3 TD:INT ratio. They've also allowed 28 or more points in three straight. The over isn't a comfortable play in a game that could move quickly, given the Sun Devils' proclivity to run often, but that's my lean. Knowing full well I expect the line to move some, don't hesitate to get an alternate line, but tepidly, I'd feel okay at anything from 47.5 and down.
Utah vs. Arizona State Expert Pick: Over 45.5 points (-115) at FanDuel SportsBook
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Utah vs. Arizona State Predictions for Week 7
Rise(ing) and shine(s)! I'm usually not into cheesy slogans like that, but it was too easy. Rising has been as efficient as you can be given his limited snaps, and he'll play Friday and play well. His mobility and arm will open running lanes for Micah Bernard, and Utah easily gets a season-high in points in a conference game.
Arizona State competes, and Cameron Skattebo finds the end zone while getting 80-ish yards, keeping the Sun Devils competitive. But unless he's more than that, Utah won't respect the passing game enough to make this competitive. Utes cover.
UTAH 31-17.
