College Football Picks: Picking Winners Week 12

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Updated on November 16, 2018 2:48PM EST

CHRIS' PICKS

Another winning week, but this one comes with complaints. Not LSU/Arkansas-level complaints, but Cincinnati certainly sat on the ball late, costing a cover, and Miami and their two special teams turnovers inside the 20 also cost me with what I consider a fluky loss. Still, I've inched my way to 10 games over .500. That'll work.

SMU +9 vs. Memphis (Friday)

SMU appears to be surging, going 3-1 SU and ATS in their last four. That includes a win against Houston and a narrow loss to Cincinnati, with the defense letting it down last week at UConn. Both teams will put up points, as evident from the 73.5 total, which seems to bode well for the Mustangs. In all of their defeats, they've been held to 23 points or less. They may not win this one, but scoring 30, 40-plus points wouldn't be a surprise. And if they put up that much, Memphis would need 50-plus to cover. No shame in a garbage score late for a backdoor cover.

Navy -5 vs. Tulsa

Quite simply, Navy is overdue for a win. They showed some fight last week at UCF after a shutout loss to Cincinnati, and look to have settled under center with Zach Abbey. We know they'll churn out rushing yards, but a matchup against Tulsa's inviting 120th ranked run defense should have chunk plays coming regularly. That success will lead to clock churning, and keep the defense on the sideline, limiting Tulsa's ability to punch back.

Until Louisville puts up a fight, I'm content to keep playing against it. Every week looks like a trap, but every week the Cardinals fall and fall big. They are 1-9 ATS, and during their current seven-game losing streak, only one loss has come by less than 18. They've allowed at least 54 points in three straight and four of their last five, and a coaching change won't fix that. This opened at 14, and I loved it more there, but the feeling is that N.C. State's loss to Wake Forest last week will be a blessing, and it's used their long week to refocus and will coast to a victory.

Boston College –1.5 at Florida State

I'm not even sure I care if AJ Dillon is 100 percent healthy, and/or if Anthony Brown sits for the Eagles. This is a Florida State team that has beaten only Samford, Northern Illinois, Louisville and Wake Forest. Boston College is clearly superior to those squads, has experience playing without key skill players throughout the year. The Eagles held Clemson to 21 points last week, and Miami to 14 a few weeks earlier, and FSU has been held to 13 points or less in each of Deondre Francois' last two starts. Further, the Seminoles have allowed seven rushing scores in their last three, capped by Notre Dame's 365 yards on the ground last week. There is no home field at Doak Campbell presently, and the Eagles can impose their will.

Baylor –2 vs. TCU

After winning just one game last year, Baylor needs one of its last two for bowl eligibility. The Bears should have a better shot this week against a beaten and bruised TCU side than next week against Texas Tech. Injuries have completely derailed the Horned Frogs, and they've failed to cover in seven consecutive games. Their last cover came by half of a point back in September against Ohio State, and they've put up only 24 total points in their last two outings, while also falling to Kansas and taking down Kansas State by one. The Bears will be the more motivated side while TCU goes through the motions.

Last week: 3-2; Season: 32-22-1

GREG'S PICKS

There's nothing quite as sweet as bouncing back after a losing week. Losing is a tough habit to break, and one losing week can easily turn into two, three, four, etc. That's what makes last week's 4-1 record so satisfying. It wasn't just the record either. The wins came fairly easy. Pittsburgh trucked the Hokies, Georgia Tech was on top of the number for most of the game and the over in the Nebraska game hit with plenty of time on the clock. The Texas game held more drama than it should have as the Longhorns were up 17 in the fourth quarter, but in the end, a win is a win. The only loss was the Purdue over, which was quite the game. Purdue was unable to get anything going against a terrible Gopher defense and the result was the total going under.  

 Michigan -28 vs. Indiana  

As we get closer to the college football playoff, the chatter is increasing and one of the scenarios lobbed around this week is, what happens if Georgia beats Alabama in the SEC Championship game? The consensus seems to be that if Notre Dame wins out in that scenario, Michigan would be the odd one out. The Wolverines have heard this chatter and they know that the only thing they can do now is win-out and do it in style. Yes, Ohio State is on deck and some might be looking ahead, but the Wolverines have handled business at home all season and that won't change this week.

 Purdue -4.5 vs. Wisconsin

Purdue looked terrible last week, there's no debating that, but college teams, especially ones that are good, like Purdue, look bad one week and good the next. Elite teams play well almost every week and Purdue is not elite, but the Boilermakers have proved that they are at least a good team. I'm not sure the same can be said about Wisconsin, which has some how regressed as the season has wore on. Purdue gets back on track here against a Badger team that threw in the towel weeks ago.

Over 48 Minnesota vs. Northwestern

  It takes a lot of things to go right or wrong depending on your perspective for a total in the 40s to go under in college football. Generally, you would need at least one dominant defense or in lieu of that, you would need every bounce to go your way. Last week, the under hit in the Gopher game, but as discussed, that was an aberration and that number was in the high-50s. The Gopher defense stepped-up like they hadn't all year, but it's simply not going to happen in two consecutive weeks. Northwestern plays to the under quite a bit, but again, the total is in the 40s, it's not like we need a shootout.

  Over 66 UMass at Georgia

The Bulldogs have been through the gauntlet over the past month and now it's time to take a deep breath and maybe relax just a bit. With that in mind, I nearly pulled the trigger on UMass, but when I saw that the Minutemen are surrendering over 260 yards per game on the ground, that stopped me in my tracks. Instead, I focused on the over as Georgia will be able to run all day and score at will, but if the defense lets up at all, UMass is more than capable of putting a couple scores on the board. Georgia will put up 50-plus points, possibly more, but we'll need UMass to contribute just a little bit as well.

Nebraska -2 vs. Michigan State

  I don't often go on strictly hunches, but I have a feeling this is a letdown spot for Sparty. The gap between the two Big10 divisions is enormous and one of the effects of playing in the East is that the teams that aren't at the top, get beat up almost every week. MSU is one of those teams that has taken its lumps week in and week out and they've been beaten down over the past two months. Nebraska meanwhile hasn't had nearly the push back against the West and it continues to improve each week.

 Last Week: 4-1; Season: 32-23