This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Picks: Georgia vs. Ole Miss
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Ole Miss, at 7-2 SU, hosts 7-1 Georgia on Saturday afternoon. The Rebels come in 6-3 ATS, though just 1-3 in their last four games (all in conference), with the total going under in seven of their nine games. Georgia, meanwhile, is a weak 2-6 ATS with the under going at a 3-5 clip.
I've been remised to toot my own horn, and I'm laboring on my season-long picks, but by my very loose count, I'm 8-1 on these single-game spotlights. Yes, I'm aware I just 100 percent jinxed whatever prediction I'm about to make.
Georgia vs. Ole Miss Betting Odds for Week 11
Spread: Georgia -1.5 (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook); Ole Miss +2.5 (-108 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Total: Over 54.5 (-105 FanDuel Sportsbook); Under 55 (-110 Caesars Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Georgia -120 (DraftKings Sportsbook); Ole Miss +120 (BetMGM)
If we remove the fact that this game was tagged for preseason betting as a marquee matchup, and Georgia opened as (-7) point favorites, we've seen very little line movement. It fell from (-3.5) to (-2.5) in early-week betting and has sat there pretty much all week.
The total had no preseason options but has remained largely consistent. It opened at 54.5, moving up and down but never more than a point. It's a consistent number across books.
Moneyline odds aren't something we often consider within these columns as there's rarely value, but we appear to have a near toss-up. Georgia has been as high as (-142) and as low as (-130), while Mississippi has been as low as (+110) and as high as (+120). Simply very minimal movement everywhere, which suggests ambiguity or complete even money on all fronts.
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Georgia vs. Ole Miss Betting Picks for Week 11
Margins here are incredibly narrow, and I think we can make a case for any side of any bet, which makes this a game that we may want to wager 110% for entertainment purposes/rooting interest only rather than chalking it as a five-unit play. I had an early lean on one side Sunday evening before this week's selection for a spotlight, so I didn't double-dip and may be wavering.
Georgia has already played at Alabama and Texas, so the road environment won't phase them. They were dominant defensively at Texas and played 1.5 quarters of incredible football at Alabama, speaking to their inconsistency. This is a game where we expect the Bulldogs' championship pedigree to step up, dominate, and move toward securing their playoff berth. But Ole Miss has similar aspirations and a smaller margin for error. Pair that with the nation's top defense allowing 13.2 ppg, and the fact that Georgia QB Carson Beck has thrown 11 interceptions in his last five games, I'm not sure how we can back either side. The theme of the column is that it's a toss-up.
Moneyline plays offer a fair return on investment, so if you have a hunch, play it, so much so that I may not even mess with the spread on either side. But with no confidence in a winner for me, we're looking at the total. And it screams under. Mississippi erupted for 63 against Arkansas last week but had not topped 27 in any previous conference game. WR Tre Harris is hurt, so they'll lean on the run, and so will Georgia, given Beck's recent mistakes. Conservative, limiting mistake approaches from both sides is my expectation.
Georgia vs. Ole Miss Expert Pick: Under 55.0 (-110 Caesars Sportsbook)
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Georgia vs. Ole Miss Predictions for Week 11
As noted above, I had an early lean here, and it was Ole Miss on the moneyline. Beck's play leaves so much to be desired, and the Bulldogs' backfield is completely decimated by injury, while Mississippi has quite literally bought their elite defense. I can't find a path to a Georgia offensive explosion.
Jaxson Dart, meanwhile, has been pedestrian before last week and likely doesn't have his top weapon, so I'm unsure how they'll hit the explosive deep passes the offense is known for. Instead, they'll use Henry Parrish and DT JJ Pegues in short yardage to extend drives and score touchdowns. See above: conservative, limiting mistake playcalling from both sides that play to not lose rather than win for three quarters, pushing scoring down.
Ole Miss 24-23
