College Football Picks: CFB Week 11 Odds, Picks, Predictions and Best Bets

Written by

Chris Bennett

Jeff Edgerton

Greg Vara

Published on November 7, 2024

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Chris' Picks

Last week started hot and fizzled in the evening, but a winning week is a winning week, something this guesser hasn't had enough of this season. There are lots of bye weeks again this week, so there are a limited number of choices, and many don't jump out. I like the over in both ECU/FAU and Appalachian State/Coastal Carolina Thursday night if you need some earlier-week action.

Liberty (-10.5) at Middle Tennessee State

I am well aware the Flames are struggling mightily right now, but I'm going to bank on that giving us a lowered line and a buying opportunity. MTSU is a bad football team, having beaten only Tennessee Tech, Kennesaw State and UTEP. Their closest loss was by 17 points and they have an average margin of defeat of 28.5 points. Liberty has played only two road games, and they don't inspire confidence, nor does the play of QB Kaidon Salter, who isn't running as successfully and doesn't have dynamic playmakers to get the ball to. The target is against the Blue Raiders on a line I think would have been 14-17 points two weeks ago.

Duke (+3.5) at North Carolina State

These two are moving in opposite directions, as the Wolfpack have won two straight while Duke has lost three of four, but I'm going to go against that trend. NCST isn't great defensively, allowing 30.8 ppg, so while I don't trust Duke's offense, they'll be able to score some here. And I like Manny Diaz to disguise blitzes and confuse freshman QB C.J. Bailey, stalling drives and potentially creating turnovers.

Iowa State (-3) at Kansas

Perhaps this is a trap, and early action has been heavily on the Jayhawks, as the number opened at (-6.5) and has plummeted downward since. But I'm taking the bait. Kansas is 2-6 and seemingly finds ways to lose more often than not. as only one of those defeats is by more than a possession. The Cyclones are elite against the pass, though I do worry about their run defense in this spot. Ultimately, they need the win to remain in contention in the conference and nationally and get back on track after last week's loss.

Jacksonville State (-9.5) at Louisiana Tech

The Gamecocks are rolling under Rich Rodriguez, winning five straight by an average of 29.8 points, piling up an amazing 358.4 rushing yards per game and 27 touchdowns. It's strength on strength, as the Bulldogs are allowing just 3.2 ypc and 112.0 ypg on the ground, but I question who they've slowed. They limited Nicholls State, MTSU and FIU but allowed 160+ to New Mexico State and UTEP. This is a different animal and while they know what's coming, they won't be able to fully stop it, and offensively, the Bulldogs have scored only 17 points over the last two weeks. That's not enough.

Notre Dame (-25.5) vs. Florida State

I don't love taking these big numbers at this point in the season, and it's a rising number that started at -22 and was remarkably -3 during the preseason! But the Seminoles may not score outside of some 50-yard field goals from Ryan Fitzgerald. They haven't topped 21 since their opener against Georgia Tech and have been held between 11 and 16 points in every game since while allowing 35.5 ppg over their last two. The Irish are allowing 12.1 ppg, more than 16 points just once, and are off a bye. Further, the 'Noles have allowed 200+ rushing yards in four of their last five and 259.5 ypg in their last two. Notre Dame's 13th-ranked rushing attack will go right through them.

Last week: 3-2; Season: 23-25-2

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Greg's Picks

The winning continued this past week with another 3-2 showing, but man, what a roller coaster it was. I was a few plays from 5-0 and a few from 0-5.

The week started on a terrible note, with Duke +20.5 points. If you followed this game, you understand why this loss was so painful. Duke was up 11 points midway through the 3rd quarter, not vs. the spread; the Blue Devils were up 11 on the scoreboard! At that moment, they just needed to stay within 31 points over the final 21 minutes, and they could not. Lady luck paid me back on the next one, however, as I had the under in the Purdue-Northwestern game, which went to OT at 20-20. Fortunately, Purdue came up empty on its first possession in OT, which meant any score from Northwestern and the under was good. Game three was an easy win on the under in the OSU-PSU game. I was a bit lucky to get Oregon vs. the number, as the Ducks scored very late in that game to cover. The final game was a little frustrating as North Carolina was moving the ball with ease all day, but once FSU failed to keep up, the Tar Heels took their foot off the gas pedal.

Ohio State (-38.5) vs. Purdue

After a few rough weeks, the Buckeyes are going to appreciate a team like the Boilermakers coming to town this week. Purdue is the absolute basement of the Big Ten this season, and although there have been some interesting games lately, one look at how they've fared against the better competition in the conference and it's clear that this game is destined for a blowout…as long as the Buckeyes show up. The reason I think we see a good game from OSU this week is that everything has been tough for the past few weeks; nothing has come easy, and now it's time to have some fun. There's nothing on the horizon next week to divide their attention, so it's time to relax and have some fun.

Minnesota (-6) at Rutgers

This game makes me nervous because the Gophers are rolling right now, and things never stay good for the Gophers for too long. This is one of those games that they would drop in the past, and I'm hoping that's not the case again this week. One thing that provides me with some confidence is Rutgers' inability to stop the run. On paper, the Gophers running game looks pretty poor and while it's not what it has been over the past decade, they've still got a pretty RB in Darius Taylor. Taylor got going this past week at Illinois, and if he's rolling, then this offense will be tough to stop. This is a revenge game for Rutgers QB Athan Kaliakmanas, but I'm not sure he's got the weapons to make the Gophers pay.

Over (49) Michigan at Indiana

My first instinct was to side with the Hoosiers minus the points, and while I think that's a good play, I like the over better. Indiana has done everything right this season. The offense is a machine, the defense has been stout, there's nothing not to like. Michigan, meanwhile, has struggled to look like a complete team, often failing because of its offense, but I've seen some things in the past couple of weeks that make me think the offense is starting to turn a corner. I'm not saying the Wolverines are about to imitate Oregon's offense, but they have been moving the ball a lot better since Davis Warren took the reigns back. I'm expecting the Hoosiers to do the heavy lifting here, but Michigan should pitch in as well and get this one over the total.

Texas (-21.5) vs. Florida

At first glance, this number just looked way too high, but a closer look reveals that Florida might be in trouble this week. Let's start with the Gators' QB DJ Lagway, who is likely out this week. Backup Aidan Warner filled in this past week and really struggled, granted it was a tough spot, but still, 7/22 for 66 yards is bad no matter the competition. This week, it only gets tougher as Texas is number one in the country in pass yards allowed. I just don't see how Florida scores many points this week. On the other side, Florida's defense is just middle of the pack, which won't be good enough this week. Add to that the letdown of putting up a good fight this past week against Georgia, only to lose by two scores in the end, and I think you've got a situation where Florida throws in the towel early.

Iowa State (-3) at Kansas

Not only does this line look odd, but the movement looks odd as well. This game opened at ISU -6.5, and it's plummeted down to three. Now, I'm not one to walk blindly into a trap, but I think the public might be off on this one. Yes, Kansas has played better since an awful start, but that hasn't resulted in much success, as the Jayhawks have dropped four of their past five games. ISU is coming off its first loss of the season this past week against Texas Tech, and honestly, I think that helps the Cyclones here as it should have refocused them this week. If the Cyclones were coming into this game undefeated, I'd be a little more worried about this number.

Last Week: 3-2-0; Season 23-27-0

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Jeff's Picks

All good things come to an end, and I limped out of the week with a 2-3 record. I narrowly missed the Minnesota-Rutgers Over, and Texas A&M let us down, but the nets for ASU and Vandy were solid calls. Vandy was an especially gutsy call on my part, and although we finished below .500, the Vandy win is the kind of wager that generates a lot of confidence. I am desperate to get in positive territory to keep my aspiration for 60 percent within striking range.

Minnesota -6 @ Rutgers

These teams are going in opposite directions. Minnesota has won four straight, while the Scarlet Knights have gone off the rails, losing the last four contests. Standout RB Kyle Monangai may not take the field for Rutgers, but up to this point, he's represented a key part of the offense. Minnesota's offense isn't particularly explosive, but Max Brosmer is efficient and directs the offense without making many mistakes. The key to this game is Minnesota's defense, which ranks 15th naturally in forcing three-and-outs. Rutgers has allowed 119 points over the past three games, and they'll struggle to put points on the board, especially if Monangu sits.

Washington State -20.5 vs. Utah State

Utah State should enter the game with some confidence after a narrow win over Wyoming, but this one won't be close. Wazzu has been excellent on both sides of the ball, and John Mateer might be one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country. The Cougars don't put a lot of emphasis on the run. But Utah State ranks next-to-last in FBS in rushing yards allowed. They are slightly better against the pass (102nd), but not enough to make a difference. The Cougars need to hang a big score to improve their CFP ranking, and I'll take them and lay the points without a second thought.

Boise State Total OVER 41.5 vs. Nevada

You can tinker with this total on DraftKings, but putting them just under six total touchdowns seemed like the best number against a Nevada squad that will have no answer for Ashton Jeanty. They rank 80th against the run, and it will be a long day against the Broncos, who have the fourth-best rushing attack in the country. Nevada has some talent on offense, which is why the wide spread isn't my favorite play, but there's no doubt that Boise State will be able to score. You'll net less money, but you can move this number down if you wish.

Alabama -2.5 @ LSU

Alabama will enter a hostile environment, and LSU's defense has demonstrated an inability to defend against mobile quarterbacks. The Crimson Tide certainly has some shortcomings, especially on defense. If Garrett Nussmeier can take advantage, this game could be a lot closer, but I think Jalen Milroe and company will rise to the occasion here. It's one of the most watchable games of the weekend, but this is a tale of two mediocre defenses: It'll come down to who scores with their possessions, and Bama has the advantage there.

BYU -2.5 @ Utah

I keep my ear to the ground over the course of the week, and I see a lot of pubic love for Utah. I get that the Holy War is always going to be a tough matchup, but BYU beats Utah on every major metric. The Cougars are 5-0 as a road favorite and the non-believers of this team have been silenced every week. Utah's offense is a mess right now, and nothing short of pure luck will allow Utah to move the ball. I think Jake Retzlaff will get his share of opportunities through the air and will win by at least a touchdown. If possible, I'd tease this line higher and give the Utes six points.

Last Week: 2-3-0

Season: 26-24-0 (52%)

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