College Football Picks: Clemson at Duke Odds, Picks & Predictions for Week 1

College Football Picks: Clemson at Duke Odds, Picks & Predictions for Week 1

This article is part of our College Football Picks series.

Clemson at Duke Betting Odds and Best Bets

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A second ACC opener closes an elongated Week 1 of college football action, following Louisville's thrilling come-from-behind win over Georgia Tech Friday. Duke is coming off an impressive 9-4 2022 campaign, but the Blue Devils enter 2023 with a season win prop of just 6.5, so a repeat isn't predicted. Clemson meanwhile went a somewhat disappointing 11-3 last year, not really competing on a national stage. These two teams haven't met since 2018 due to the league's unbalanced schedule, where the Tigers prevailed at home 35-6.

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Clemson at Duke Betting Odds for Week 1

Spread: Clemson -12.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Total: 55.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

Moneyline: Clemson -450 (Bet MGM); Duke +385 (FanDuel SportsBook)

The spread here has slowly been ticking up, opening at Clemson -11 and never dipping down, now sitting at -13 at most books. Simply, if you're backing Clemson, I hope you've already locked in. That said, I don't see enough late line movement to push this north of two touchdowns.

The total has gone in the reverse direction, opening at 57.0 and slowly trending downward, a sign of new times in college football with the clock running more. Coming below 56 points is interesting as it comes in below eight total touchdowns. 

The moneyline has danced all over the place, with Clemson going as high as -550 and Duke to +410. There's no value in the Tigers unless you have a major boost at your preferred booked, and even then you'll need to toss in a MLB ML option in a parlay to make it worth the risk. Duke has higher preseason expectations than normal, but tickets are still readily available through their office. This isn't a hostile environment where an upset seems like a worthy dart throw.

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Clemson at Duke Betting Picks for Week 1

This is a tough one to make a pick on. On talent alone, Clemson remains far superior, and the spread sitting below two touchdowns makes it preferable, almost too much so. They've brought in former TCU OC Garrett Riley to bolster what's become a stagnant passing attack. Riley's Horned Frog attack averaged 38.8 ppg last season, but Clemson's one offensive weakness remains proven wide receiver explosiveness behind emerging sophomore Antonio Williams.

Mike Elko is an emerging elite coach. He'll have Duke schemed up well here and even if the atmosphere isn't in the upper echelon, this doesn't feel like a spot where the Tigers will simply waltz in and dominate from the opening kick. I just don't see Duke being able to keep Clemson off the scoreboard enough to win, nor do I see them scoring enough points to keep it close. I'm not usually a totals bettor, and unders are among the least favorite things to root for. But that's where I've landed. Clemson gets a few spark plays from the passing game, but dominates up front on both sides, limiting Duke's scoring and pounding the ball with Will Shipley. I noted the total dipping below eight total touchdowns, but I don't see Duke getting three, nor Clemson getting five. And field goals don't hurt as much, and may be somewhat scare too. Clemson is breaking in a freshman kicker while Duke's Todd Pelino made just eight in six games last year, as the Blue Devils have a propensity for fourth-down attempts.

Clemson at Duke Best Bet: Under 55.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook

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Clemson at Duke Predictions for Week 1

I'm expecting Clemson to be better offensively under Riley, but that will take time to emerge througout the season. They can be slightly aggressive early to get a lead, but will lean on Shipley to salt this game away. Given the massive talent gap, how many missed assignments and broken plays can Duke earn to post points? Outside of quarterback Riley Leonard, they still lack big-play explosiveness. Clemson can spy him and won't likely allow many plays deep downfield or sustained long drives.

There's such a hard game script towards finding a way for a Duke upset. Clemson jumps early, Duke competes but the margin of victory slowly expands in the second half. Clemson 31-17.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Chris Bennett
Bennett covers baseball, college football and college basketball for RotoWire. Before turning to fantasy writing, he worked in scouting/player development for the Atlanta Braves and Montreal Expos. He's also a fan of the ACC.
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