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Chris' Picks
I at least turned in a winning week last week, but I still feel like there's been some missed opportunities. Unlike the first two weeks, there were a lot of lines that jumped out early in the week. Some feel like too obvious/trap plays, and it's always a challenge to widdle down the choices to just five. Fingers crossed, I can make the right choice of games, and then the right choice on sides here and get back above .500. Rocking and rolling on the longer, assigned games from our editors at a cool 4-0! So fade there, and hopefully, this column pops!
Kansas State (-4) at Missouri
Shop around because this number appears to be falling the closer we get to gameday, having peaked at -5.5 and now potentially as low as -4. And to be frank, if you're backing Mizzou, I'd go all the way to the moneyline and not mess with the points. For me, I'll take the better-coached side over the more talented talented Tigers. Missouri has dudes along their defensive front that can limit the KSU run game and frustrate QB Will Howard. And Missouri likely finds some success on the ground when they possess. But I don't trust the Tigers' quarterback situation to make winning plays, nor do I back their coach to make the right calls. This line feels too obvious, which has me nervous. But I'm taking KSU, and if it continues to drop, it may be for multiple units.
Liberty (-3.5) at Buffalo
This line screams trap, but I'm biting anyway. Buffalo just lost to Fordham, giving up 40 points in the process. Is that a case of them allowing Week 1 opponent Wisconsin to beat them twice? They're desperate, at home, and surely come with a spirited effort. And while the Flames are 2-0, they haven't exactly been stellar, beating lowly Bowling Green and New Mexico St. by a combined 26 points. Both teams stink defensively against the run, but Liberty excels at rushing the ball, while the Bulls are averaging a mere 3.7 ypc and got just 97 yards on 30 carries in last week's loss. I view this as more of an expected 7-to-10-point spread, which suggests value on the Flames. I also live in Virginia, where we can't bet on state schools, so if I'm not convincing, take the Bulls ML for entertainment.
Duke (-18.5) vs. Northwestern
We've got a 48.5 point total here, which implies a 33-15 type expected outcome. Do we think Northwestern can score three times? Because that should be all it comes down to. Duke's defense has been borderline elite, allowing just seven points in each of their first two games. They've been more vulnerable against the run, allowing 4.6 ypc against just 4.9 ypa through the air. But the Wildcats just stink, scoring seven points in a 17-point loss to Rutgers. No significant analysis is needed; Duke is better than Rutgers. I find the Blue Devils to be more lucky than good, but they are an elite-coached team. Mike Elko will have them schemed up for success, motivated to not go through the motions, and they'll coast to a convincing win.
Appalachian State (-9.5) vs. East Carolina
I successfully targeted ECU last week, and I'm going back to the well, as I don't believe the lines have caught up to how much of a rebuild the Pirates are in the midst of. ECU is a woeful offensive team. They rotate quarterbacks, one of whom is their leading rusher, which is where you attack the Mountaineers. Appalachian State has been great against the pass and can probably stack the box a bit to help with their poor rush defense stats to date. ASU could struggle out of the gates after a narrow miss at UNC last Saturday, but through four quarters, I'm confident in the home side winning by two scores.
Arkansas (-7.5) vs. BYU
Are we getting a discount thanks to Arkansas struggling against lowly Kent State last week? I sure hope so. I was interested in this at -10 when it opened, and that it's falling has me all in. We can't take too much away from each team's first two performances, but the stats say BYU can't run the ball at all. They rank 118th overall with just 79.0 ypg and 2.8 ypc while facing Sam Houston and Southern Utah. How are they going to crank that up against an SEC front? The Razorbacks' competition leaves plenty to be desired, but they've allowed just 1.4 ypc to date. Arkansas, too, has struggled to run, so this seems to come down to a quarterback battle between Kedon Slovis and KJ Jefferson, which I think gives the Hawgs a huge advantage. Keep tracking the spread, and if it gets below a touchdown, pounce. But I'm comfortable where it is; BYU struggles more to score than Arkansas does.
Last week: 3-2; Season: 4-6
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Greg's Picks
I'll start this week off by stating the obvious: it's always a good sign when one of your picks ends up on the right side of a "Bad Beats" segment. In this case, it was Oregon, which was one of three wins this past week. As you might have guessed, I was fairly fortunate to get that game as Oregon was not only not covering late in the game but was trailing very late in the game. I will say this in my defense. However, I've been on the wrong side of games like that before, so I won't apologize for getting the W there.
As for the other games, I split my under plays, while hitting an easy winner on Colorado and taking another tough loss on Michigan. That's the second consecutive week that Michigan got out to a big lead and stalled down the stretch. It's clear that this team is not interested in style points, at least during the non-conference portion of its schedule.
All lines courtesy of DraftKings.com
Boston College (+26.5) vs Florida State
If you've followed me over the years, you know that I base my picks largely on the intangibles; some you can measure, and some you can't. I mention that because there are no numbers that could justify this selection, but there are plenty of intangibles that make B.C. a good pick. Let's start with the ego that the kids from FSU are building. Are they ready to go on the road, in the conference, and lay a number like this? I'm not sure they are. The Seminoles were very impressive in Week 1, and they cruised this past week against Southern Miss, which means that a letdown is coming soon, perhaps this week. The other factor in this game is the wind, which is forecasted to be around 25 mph and should greatly affect the passing game. Both the spread and the total have dropped since the opening lines came out, and there are good reasons for that.
Alabama (-31.5) at South Florida
Tough spot here for the Bulls as you don't often catch an Alabama team off a loss, but that's exactly what they get this week. Alabama does not appear to be the juggernaut we are used to seeing, but the 'Tide still has plenty of firepower, and they'll be ready to unleash it this week. The problem for USF this week is its pass defense. After two games this season, the Bulls are averaging 355 against them through the air. That's going to lead to a lot of easy scores for 'Bama, and once they get the lead, I don't see them letting up this week, not after losing the way they did against Texas this past week.
Minnesota (+7.5) at North Carolina
The Tar Heels looked very good in their opening week win over South Carolina and not quite as good this past week when they needed overtime to beat Appalachian State. It's clear that their offense is good, but I'm not quite sold on this offense being outstanding. As for Minnesota, I'm not quite sure what we have here. It looks like the Gophers have a pretty strong defense and a decent offense. The reason I am siding with the Gophers this week is because I think they can make this game ugly. The Gophers have not been the most reliable favorite under P.J. Fleck, but one thing they have been is a very pesky out as an underdog. North Carolina's defense has been beatable through the air this season, and while the Gophers prefer to stay on the ground, they do have a capable QB in Athan Kaliakmanis. This could be his coming out party this week.
Duke (-18.5) vs Northwestern
One relatively easy win over UTEP is not going to erase the memory of what Rutgers did to Northwestern a couple of weeks ago. A closer look at the 'Cats win against UTEP this past week reveals that it was actually a fairly tight game until UTEP started giving the ball away. No, I don't buy into Northwestern finding itself this past week, and I think we'll see why when they travel to Durham, NC, this week. Duke is off to a great start, with wins over Clemson and Lafayette to start the season and sure, Clemson is not what it's been over the past decade, but it showed a lot that the Blue Devils came up big in a national spotlight game the opening week. What matters here is that Duke doesn't need to do much on offense as it should have an easy time slowing the offensive "attack" of the Wildcats.
Over (63.5): Georgia Tech at Mississippi
When I first saw this line, I thought about taking Georgia Tech as I think Ole Miss might be a little overhyped at the moment, but upon noticing that the Yellow Jackets are surrendering over 211 yards per game on the ground, I thought better. Ole Miss is thought to be a high-flying air attack, but the Rebels can run it as well, and I think they'll get a ton of yards on the ground this week in addition to plenty of yards through the air. On the other side of the ball, the Yellow Jackets are averaging over 500 yards per game on offense, and while Ole Miss' defense looks to be improved, remember that this past week, the Rebels did not face Tulane's stud QB. This should be a track meet in the first half, and hopefully, Georgia Tech keeps it close enough in the second half that both teams need to keep scoring.
Last Week: 3-2-0; Season 5-5-0
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Jeff's Picks
I completely whiffed two picks and came within 1 point of a win in another game, but I am proud of the two successful picks, taking Washington State and Notre Dame while many experts were going the other way. I had faith in Cameron Ward and Sam Hartman, and I think the Vegas books will lose as much as they are losing with the Colorado valuation if they don't start pricing the Cougars appropriately.
Florida (-7) vs. Tennessee
Let's begin with some cold, hard stats. Florida coach Billy Napier is 17-5 ATS when cast as the underdog, dating back to his tenure at Louisiana. He's also 5-0 ATS against ranked opponents during his tenure with the Gators. Those are encouraging numbers, and based on what we've seen from the Vols so far, it looks like Napier may go 6-0. After convincing wins over UT-Martin and Virginia, they barely showed up against Austin Peay with a lackluster 30-13 over a team they should have pummeled into submission. A win is a win, but something doesn't feel quite right with the offense, and Joe Milton is struggling. The Gators play tough against the run, so I don't expect Jabari Small and Jaylen Warren to light it up, but Tennessee could flip the script if they break some big plays. Ultimately, Milton and the Vols will make too many mistakes at one of the worst places to play on the road.
Georgia Tech (+18.5) @ Ole Miss
I expect Lane Kiiffin and his boys to pull through here, but after they struggled against Tulane's backup quarterback, I lack the confidence to give them this spread. The Rebels have Alabama and LSU coming up, so if they manage to take a three-touchdown league, they'll rest their starters and allow the Ramblin' Wreck to get closer. Buster Faulkner has put together a decent offense and has surprised many people, and I think Haynes King will give Ole Miss some problems. I believe this number will continue to sink, so lock it in while you can - I would probably balk at -17 or less.
UNDER 49.5: Tulane @ Southern Mississippi
Tulane QB Michael Pratt is improving daily, but his knee should still cause a few problems. If the Green Wave's offense is as limited as I expect, then the Under is pretty safe. The Golden Eagles struggled to contain Florida State but are still a stalwart bunch. Tulane's defense will play well enough to stifle Southern Miss, but I doubt they'll post enough production to get to this total. Something like 27-14 sounds about right with a seven-point margin of error.
Penn State (-14.5) @ Illinois
This game is a classic mismatch that has blowout written all over it. Things couldn't be going better for the Nittany Lions. Drew Allar is throwing darts, the running game is the best in the Big Ten, and the defense is getting the job done. Conversely, the Illini are struggling. They were gutted by graduation, with many stars on both sides of the ball out of the picture. They rank dead-last in the Big Ten for third-down stops, and the offense needs help staying on the field with an equally alarming third-down conversion rate. Illinois doesn't have the same defensive chops as last year, and despite a bit of a speed bump against West Virginia, the Nittany Lions are humming. I would tease this line up to 17.
Air Force (-9.5) vs. Utah State
Despite losing Brad Roberts, the triple-option is alive and well for the Falcons. Just about anyone could carve out a considerable number running the ball with Air Force's stalwart offensive line, which routinely ranks as one of the best in the country. The Falcons have handled Utah State with ease over the past two seasons, and the Aggies project to be even worse this year. Cooper Legas doesn't look like the answer at quarterback, but he isn't entirely at fault. The offense line lacks experience, and while they hung tough against Iowa and destroyed Idaho State, this spread is entirely too low. I'm unsure whether it's a lousy valuation of the Falcons or a better opinion of the Aggies at 1-1. Either way, the Falcons win by two touchdowns or more.
Last Week: 2-3
Season: 4-6
