This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Playoff Picks: Notre Dame vs. Indiana
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The new paradigm for FBS college football takes center stage for the first time Friday. We have a proper "first round" of the college football playoff because we have 12 teams partaking in the playoff now. The teams ranked fifth through 12th are squaring off this weekend, with the higher seed getting a home game out of the equation. While Saturday is when the playoff really takes flight, everything begins Friday at 8 p.m. in a game that puts the spotlight on the Hoosier State.
We begin the first round with an unexpected intrastate battle. The seventh-seeded Notre Dame Fighting Irish are at home in South Bend, Indiana, hosting the 10th-seeded Indiana Hoosiers. One of these two teams will make history by punching their ticket to the quarterfinals, a round that is taking place in a traditional bowl format. So, how will the first postseason game play out, and what is the lay of the land from a betting perspective? Let's see.
Notre Dame vs. Indiana Betting Odds
Spread: Notre Dame -7.0 (DraftKings Sportsbook), Indiana +7.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Total: Over 52.0 (Caesars Sportsbook), Under 52.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Notre Dame -265 (FanDuel Sportsbook), Indiana +230 (ESPN Bet)
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The Fighting Irish are favorites in the first game of the first round, and perhaps even comfortably so. Given that this is a home game for Notre Dame, there is a bit of a baking in going on there, but that doesn't account for being a touchdown, or even a touchdown plus a hook in one instance, favorite. Is that justified?
Notre Dame vs. Indiana Betting Picks
While Notre Dame was tapped by many to be a member of the 12-team playoff, Indiana certainly was not expected to earn a spot. The Hoosiers have a fine history of success on the hardwood but not on the turf. Curt Cignetti has worked wonders in previous jobs, but this was even more robust for him. However, Indiana had to fight cynicism to earn the 10th seed. The Hoosiers lost one game this year, a fairly sizable loss against Ohio State, but I'd argue that Notre Dame's only loss was worse.
The Buckeyes are a playoff team, they were at home, and a couple special teams plays ended up breaking that one open for them. Notre Dame lost at home 16-14 to Northern Illinois, a team that went 4-4 in the MAC. And yet, there was little talk about Notre Dame being unworthy of a playoff spot and a litany of talking heads and social media chatterers with their knives out for Indiana. It's almost like these people are knee-jerk traditionalists trying to cut down an upstart program.
Many called Indiana's schedule into question, but people often lose track of the fact it's how you beat a team as much as who you beat. Rolling a below-average team is as instructive and impressive as eking out a win over a good opponent. Indiana handled its business, scoring 520 points and only allowing 176. Notre Dame is seventh in SP+, but Indiana is 10th. Hey, that directly lines up with their seeding!
The Hoosiers are between 10th and 13th in offensive, defensive, and special teams SP+. Notre Dame is fifth offensively and defensively but a concerning 101st in special teams. With thin margins for error, that could mean something. The Irish have grown accustomed to playing without defensive back Benjamin Morrison, but top running back Jeremiyah Love left the team's last game with a leg injury. He'll likely play, but it's hard enough to run against the Hoosiers as is. Indiana's key offensive players, mostly important quarterback Kurtis Rourke, are healthy.
Obviously, I like Indiana, and I believe in its talent. I believe in Cignetti. The Ohio State loss means something, but not everything. Notre Dame is also one of those "public teams" that draw a lot of bets, which shapes spreads. Do the Irish win at home? Probably, but asking them to win comfortably is a lot.
Notre Dame vs. Indiana Best Bet: Indiana +7.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Notre Dame vs. Indiana Betting Predictions
These are two top-10 defenses. Indiana allowed the second-fewest yards per game this season, while Notre Dame was eighth. You can't throw on the Irish (157.9 passing yards per contest) and you can't run on the Hoosiers (70.8 rushing yards per game, lowest by over 12 yards). That means Indiana will likely have to rely on the duo of Justice Ellison and Ty Son Lawton, and Notre Dame will have to rely on Riley Leonard throwing it to…somebody. That's one of the things that gives me pause for the Irish. They don't have any receivers of note. It is also late December in Indiana, the time of the year for smashmouth, low-scoring football. When the Hoosiers played the Wolverines, they ground out a 20-15 win. I'm not saying they do that to the Fighting Irish, who are a decidedly better team, but I could see the Hoosiers' role being reversed and them losing a close, low-scoring game such as that.
