College Football DFS Picks: Championship Week Friday Slate

Championship Week kicks off with a tantalizing two-gamer that kicks off at 7:30 p.m. EDT. This collection of games will be loads of fun to play.

SLATE OVERVIEW

UTSA (-8.5) vs. North Texas O/U: 69.5

USC (-2.5) vs. Utah O/U: 67.5

The advantage we have in this slate is game history, as these teams have already faced each other.  The Utes rolled it for all the marbles and gave USC its only loss via a gutsy call for a two-point conversion. The outcome may have been different if the officials hadn't bungled a call in the end zone that would have given USC the go-ahead touchdown. The call was so bad, the officials were eventually fined by the Pac-12. The final score: Utah 42, USC 41

UTSA somehow made it past UNT 31-27 despite allowing Austin Aune three touchdowns and 325 passing yards. Ultimately, the Roadrunners' rushing attack was too much for the Mean Green to overcome, but like the Pac-12 matchup, the game was close throughout.

This slate is probably the most intriguing two-gamer we've had all season. Despite the firepower present in the Pac-12 matchup, it's apparent that the C-USA Championship game is where we will find lower rostership and comparable value at a couple of positions. The salary differences between DraftKings and FanDuel will make certain calls more favorable for a particular site. Let's start trying to make sense of it, shall we?

QUARTERBACK

There's a valid argument for all four signal-callers tonight, and that's one reason why you'll need to field two of them. As you might expect, the Pac-12 quarterbacks have a higher profile and are more expensive.  After crunching some numbers and looking at some recent trends, I have some semblance of the duo I would go with, but keep in mind that all four of the quarterbacks have merit. I'll also say that the only reason you'd move away from Caleb Williams is if you're building a tournament lineup.

Cameron Rising, Utah (DK $8,000, FD $10,200) vs. USC

Would it surprise you to know that by the numbers, Rising was the better quarterback over Williams in their first meeting? He outpaced the presumptive Heisman winner by around 10 FP, depending on the scoring system you're using. Let's face it - despite being 11-1, the Trojans' defense can be downright abysmal at times, and they rank a lowly 257th in the FBS against the pass. The loss of Tavion Thomas has forced Rising to make more plays from the pocket, and although Caleb Williams has eel-like slipperiness, Rising knows how to scramble as well, with six rushing touchdowns to his credit. There are better defensive minds on the Utes' side of the ball, and you can bet they've devised a strong game plan for the Trojans. If the defense can put the Trojans into enough third-and-long situations, we could see Rising finishing the game with more snaps and more opportunities to produce. 

Austin Aune, North Texas (DK $5,100, FD $9,200) OR Frank Harris, UTSA

(DK $11,000, FD $6,100)

As you can see, the salaries on both sites are pretty favorable, but DraftKings is the site where I would pivot to Frank Harris (DK $6,100) because FanDuel has overvalued him and made him the second-best QB on the slate. There are some clear differences between Aune and Harris, and the most obvious gap is in their rushing stats. The Roadrunners have designed run plays for Harris, and he's amassed 539 yards and eight touchdowns with his feet. Aune isn't even on the same planet, as he rarely runs with any success.  Aune has a 31:11 TD/INT ratio, and Harris' is 27:7. Harris has the edge in passing yards, and their recency is about the same. Conclusion - Harris makes more sense on DraftKings, but on FanDuel you might as well spend an extra $1k and go to Caleb Williams, Aune is the best pivot if you find yourself flirting with a salary overdraft, but as you'll see, you won't need help until you get to the wideouts.

RUNNING BACK

Injury situations have forced us into certain scenarios, and there are a few backs that look like obvious chalk as a result.

Kevorian Barnes, UTSA (DK $4,100, FD $7,100) vs. UNT

Trelon Smith is doubtful and Brendan Brady is out. If we look at recent box scores, Barnes usually gets the bulk of the carries behind Brady, so it makes sense that he'll lead the rushing attack. As mentioned earlier, it was UTSA's run game that made the difference in their last meeting, and it seems logical that Barnes' snap count is going to double.

Ikaika Ragsdale, North Texas (DK $3,500, FD $6,800) vs. UTSA

Although Ragsdale wouldn't have been the best pick earlier in the season, he's trended up gradually to the point where he has more touches than Isaiah Johnson. He has four rushing touchdowns and three receiving touchdowns to his credit this season while generating 662 yards of total offense.

I'll explain why we are only going with these two backs only.  We aren't going to trust Austin Jones because Utah's run defense is just that good, and while Jones has a better offensive line than he had at Stanford, he had very little success against the Utes during his tenure with the Farm. The second reason we're stopping here is that my pick for Utah (Ja'Quinden Jackson) is listed as a quarterback on both sites, making him only a borderline add at the S-FLEX position.

WIDE RECEIVER

We should have sufficient room to go after all of the big names at this position, so let's drill them out.

Jordan Addison, USC (DK $7,400, FD $9,700) vs. Utah

Addison was double-teamed relentlessly against Utah and still came up with seven catches for 106 yards and a touchdown. This time around, not only is the receiving corps completely healthy, but Willams has developed a stronger rapport with Tahj Washington (DK $5,300, FD $7,100) and Brenden Rice (DK $4,100, FD $5,700). Also. Mario Williams (DK $5,100, FD $6,800) is healthy and ready to go. Mario actually led the group in receiving yards against Utah, but his injury issues are a concern. He may have temporarily lost a step, but there are plenty of additional targets to keep Utah guessing, and that's great news for Addison.

Dalton Kincaid, Utah (DK $6,600, FD $7,800) vs. USC

Kincaid had the best game of his college career against the Trojans, posting 16 catches for 234 yards and a touchdown. You can bet the Trojans have looked at the tape and have a plan to stop him, but there's one problem with that strategy. He's also a perfect decoy for Devaughn Vele (DK $6,000, FD $7,800) and Jaylen Dixon (DK $5,500, FD $6,000), and USC may surrender a few big plays if they try to just contain Kincaid. I still like the tight end in this scenario, but you could always stack Vele and Kincaid if you end up loading Rising into your lineups. There is a build where you can use Williams and Rising, and just superstack, but we can safely assume that it will be an exceedingly popular strategy.

Zakhari Franklin (DK $6,900, FD $9,600) and Joshua Cephus (DK $6,300, FD $8,700), UTSA vs. UNT

One could argue that UTSA's top two wideouts are better than USC's setup. Both wideouts are flirting with 1,000 receiving yards and together, they account for 18 touchdown catches. Franklin has the slight edge in that category with 11, but there's plenty of work to go around for both of them. If you elect to field Harris, you must have one of them, and if you can't stack I would give Frankin the slight edge.