College Capper: Picking Winners Week 6

Chris' Picks

If not for a touchdown with 43 seconds left, I'd have had a third consecutive winning week, so curses to the Liberty defense and the New Mexico offense for that late cheapy. My one-offs have started to stink, which paired with the official plays recent success has me feeling better about picking the right games. Let's try not to mess that up.

Buffalo +4 vs. Ohio

Buffalo is a team I can't figure out, and won't appear in this column again if it loses. The Bulls dominated Temple at home out of the blue, jumped to a 14-3 lead at Miami (OH) last week before INTs led to their demise. I initially liked Ohio, but did a 180 when seeing the home team has won the last nine games in this series. The Bobcats last three trips to upstate New York have led to three defeats by 38 total points. I'm not overly worried about the potential absence of Buffalo QB Matt Myers, as the Bulls simply don't pass. Ohio is 1-3 ATS to date, and I like Buffalo's 18th-ranked rushing offense to dominate Ohio's 112th-ranked rush defense. Taking the points at home feels right.

Auburn -3 at Florida

This feels like low-hanging fruit, but I just don't see this as a winnable game for Florida. Both sides boast top-20 run defenses, but Auburn ranks 14th in rushing offense while UF is at 88th. The Tigers have a huge advantage with their defensive line against the Gators' offensive line, and it's going to force Florida to be one dimensional. Florida coach Dan Mullen has a great record as a home underdog, but it's just difficult seeing Florida scoring enough to win. Auburn already owns a road win at Texas A&M, and the offense will make enough plays to win a low-scoring game by a touchdown-plus.

Marshall -4 at Middle Tennessee State

I think there's some value in the Herd. They showed well prior to Cincinnati gashing them last week, and this spread has moved four points in their favor since opening at -8. It's entirely possible I'm hung up on their seven-point defensive effort at Boise State, which was playing on a Florida State win hangover. But MTSU is a rebuilding program that has lost to Michigan, Duke and Iowa by a combined 99 points. Marshall isn't in that tier, but are they four touchdowns worse?

Washington -16.5 at Stanford

The Huskies might cover this number by winning 17-0. That shows how beat up Stanford is. Injuries at quarterback and across Stanford's offensive line should have the Washington defense as one of fantasy nation's most streamed defenses. It's a bigger number than I'd like in a likely lower scoring game, but this figures to be a one sided matchup.

Rice +9.5 at UAB

Despite being 0-5, Rice is a sound 3-1-1 ATS. They're using ball control to keep contests close, holding Army, Baylor and Louisiana Tech to a combined 58 points, losing by an average of six points. UAB has failed to impress in matchups against South Alabama, Akron (which lost to UMass) and Alabama State, while losing to Western Kentucky. It would be great to sit on this spread in hopes it moves, but the Owls are in a spot to compete Saturday.

Other games I like include North Carolina (-10.5) at Georgia Tech, Penn State (-28) vs. Purdue (-28), UCF (-4) at Cincinnati and Boston College (+6) at Louisville.

Last week: 2-2-1; Season: 14-12-1

GREG'S PICKS

Another mixed bag last week with two easy wins, two bad losses and one game that I probably should have won. The losses were Wisconsin and North Texas. Wisconsin never got anything going on offense and it's tough to cover 24 points when that happens. It doesn't change my view of Northwestern; the Wildcats aren't any good, but they can be pesky. The easy wins were Indiana and South Carolina. The Gamecocks started strong and were never in danger. Indiana hung tough all day with Michigan State and was never really out of cover range. Virginia failed to cover, but probably should have if its QB, who happens to be the best player on the team, could have merely held onto the ball while getting sacked just once. 

Penn State -28 vs. Purdue

Purdue's defense is atrocious, there's no debating that, the Boilers let Gophers QB Tanner Morgan complete 21 of 22 passes last week en route to surrendering 38 points. Now they are without their top QB and only play maker, Rondale Moore. This season is about to go from bad to worse. Penn State, meanwhile, is cruising, coming off a complete thrashing of Maryland last week. My only concern is that with Iowa on deck, the Nittany Lions could overlook Purdue. But even if they aren't completely focused, they should be able to clear this number.         

Kansas State -1 vs. Baylor 

Kansas State was exposed last week as a team that's not quite as good as we thought. This week, it's Baylor's turn. The Wildcats turned in an impressive effort at Mississippi State a couple weeks ago, but they were unable to duplicate that effort at Oklahoma State last week. That said, there's no shame in losing at Oklahoma State and the fact that the Cats held OSU to less than 28 is actually pretty impressive. Baylor is starting to pick up some steam as a team that might be much better than it was the last couple seasons, but the Bears have yet to face any kind of challenge on the road. That challenge comes this week. They will fail.          

California +18 at Oregon 

The Bears suffered a huge blow last week when they lost their starting QB Chase Garbers, but last I checked, they still have a pretty solid defense. Oregon can bring it on both sides of the ball, but outside of the Nevada game, the Ducks haven't really shown that extra gear on offense to which we've become accustomed. I expect the Ducks to let down a bit in this spot, knowing Garbers is out, and without that sharpness, it will be tough to cover a number this big. Cal's defense will keep it in this game long enough to hold onto the cover.

Kansas +32 vs. Oklahoma

It's my first, "hold your nose" moment of the season. Despite winning at Boston College earlier this season, Kansas is really not much better than it was last year — and last year, it was terrible. That said, there have been slight improvements under coach Les Miles, but this isn't about the Jayhawks, it's about Oklahoma and who the Sooners have next week. The Red River Rivalry is a week from Saturday and I'm not sure how the Sooners will stay focused on lowly Kansas this week. Don't get me wrong, Oklahoma will win and win big, but that slight loss of focus will turn this into a four-score game instead of a five-score game.     

Auburn -3 at Florida 

Florida is undefeated this season, but I'm still not sold on the Gators. Perhaps if they looked better against Miami or didn't squeak past Kentucky, I'd be more optimistic, but until they beat one of the big boys, I'll withhold praise. Auburn, meanwhile, has looked the part of a top-tier team with a neutral site win over Oregon, a road win at Texas A&M and a complete thumping of Mississippi State last week. If Auburn wants to be in the national championship conversation, the Tigers need to win this game.  

Last Week: 2-3-0, Season: 11-14-1