College Capper: Best Bets Week 10

Chris' Picks

I cannot believe we're already in Week 10. Holy moly things are moving. Things are also starting to percolate here, as I've turned in three-straight winning weeks capped by last week's 4-1 mark, with two underdogs even winning straight up. Clearly due some regression, but maybe we can stretch the hot streak out a little more!

Virginia Tech (-3) at Boson College (Friday)

The Hokies showed a pulse last week at Georgia Tech and haven't fully quit on embattled coach Justin Fuente. They still can't stop the run, though, and that's what Boston College wants to do. That said, the Eagles are so one-dimensional with Dennis Grosel under center instead of injured Phil Jurkovec. They've scored just no more than 14 points in any of their last four games, totaling 40 overall. As much as I don't trust much of anything the Hokies bring to the table, I think they can score 20+ points here, which lends confidence to a cover.

Pittsburgh (-21) at Duke

Pitt is appearing here for the third week in a row, something I try to not do often, but the last two times I went against them. This spread just seems too low in what should be a huge bounce-back spot for the Panthers. Sure, they could fall victim to the empty stands at Wallace-Wade Stadium, but nothing suggests this will be close. Duke has lost their last two by a combined 93-7 and has allowed at least 31 points in four straight. Pitt is going to soar past that, having done so six times already this season. Duke remains a one-dimensional offense, simply handing the ball off to Mataeo Durant and hoping for the best. Kenny Pickett, Jordan Addison and Israel Abanikanda are all in for huge days offensively, and the Pitt defensive front won't allow much if any yardage. Pitt wins by 30+.

Florida (-18) at South Carolina

This is a weird spot in the schedule for both sides. Florida just got hammered by Georgia, but now faces lowly South Carolina, Samford, Missouri and Florida State. They can absolutely go through the motions and end up 4-0. South Carolina is coming off of a bye, so maybe they are ripe underdogs. But I just don't see it. They are offensively challenged, to say the least, having not topped 20 points in-conference, where they are 1-3 ATS, only covering as 31.5 point dogs at Georgia. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Gators struggle early here. But over the course of four quarters, they'll score more than enough to pull away. And it appears this line is dropping...yes, please.

East Carolina (-16) vs. Temple

ECU has covered in five straight, including last week when it was favored for the first time all year. But I also find their straight-up losses be hard-fought and or tough luck. They play hard on both sides of the ball for HC Mike Houston, have a battle-tested quarterback in Holton Ahlers, and their rushing game is really emerging with second-year freshmen Rahjai Harris banging between tackles and Keaton Mitchell a speedy game-changer. That bodes well against Temple's 123rd-ranked run defense that's allowing 218.6 yards per game. Offensively, Temple hasn't topped 14 points in any of their losses, three times going for seven or less. The Owls have lost their last three by a combined 135-24. This won't be that lopsided, but ECU still rolls.

Wyoming (+3.5) vs. Colorado State

This is a simple case of taking points at home. Both sides have sound-to-good defenses, with Colorado State allowing 21.4 ppg and Wyoming 21.9 ppg. As such, the total comes in at a meager 40.5 points, so we're expecting a low-scoring, tight game. Catching more than a field goal just makes too much sense. Wyoming has lost four straight overall and failed to cover in five straight, yet the line seems to be moving downward. Hmm.

Last week: 4-1; Season 26-23

GREG'S PICKS

I hit my first game, with ease, this past weekend, and then it all fell apart. I guess that's what I get for complaining about going 2-3 or 3-2 every week. Let's take a quick look at what happened, and move on. 

That first win was on Navy, which won outright as an 11-point dog. From there it was just a bunch of frustration. Michigan was in control for most of the game but fell apart late. Iowa... well Iowa was a situation where I should have reevaluated the resume. The Hawkeyes were never in that game. The over in the Texas game was on pace early, but they hit a lull in the 2nd and 3rd quarters and Cincinnati must be reading its press clippings because there's no excuse for the effort the Bearcats put up this past Saturday.     

All lines courtesy of draftkings.com

Over (76.5) Wake Forest at North Carolina

I've been on a lot of North Carolina overs this season and early on, it wasn't paying off, but lately, the Tarheels have started to become the team I envisioned early in the season. What the 'Heels need to hit the over is an opponent that can push them all game long. Enter Wake Forest, which has a high-powered offense and just an average defense. What works here is Wake Forest's rushing defense, which allows over 200 yards per game. That will open up the offense for the 'Heels. Meanwhile, Wake Forest is scoring on everyone this year, so that won't be a problem.               
Over (66.5) Liberty at Ole Miss 

This should be a fun game and if the Rebels aren't careful, they might slip up. Liberty has plenty of firepower on the offense, enough to put up points on just about any team in the country. Ole Miss' defense is nothing special and I expect Liberty to put up a decent number of points. Liberty's defense looks good on paper, but the Flames just haven't played anyone. The only Power 5 team they faced was Syracuse and they gave up 24 to a fairly punchless Orange offense. Ole Miss hasn't been in a shootout for a few weeks, but that's about to change.        

Pittsburgh (-21) at Duke

I'm definitely worried that I missed the boat on this terrible Duke team, but I don't think the line is high enough in this game. Duke has been getting throttled week after week and most often, these trends end before they get out of hand, but I'm expecting another blowout this week. The problem for Duke is that it gives up almost 300 yards per game through the air and here comes Kenny Pickett…off a loss. I can't see Pittsburgh scoring less than 40 in this game, so unless the Duke offense finally wakes up, there's no reason to think the Blue Devils will cover in this spot.     

Cincinnati (-22.5) vs Tulsa

Fool me once, shame on me, let's see if I get fooled again. The Bearcats were awful this past week, they should have throttled a bad Tulane team, but they played around with them. After seeing the initial CFP rankings, I don't think that'll be the case this week. Cincinnati may have relaxed a bit then it was number two in the polls, but now that it's on the outside looking in, it's time to turn it up a notch. I faded Tulsa last week at home against Navy and it paid off. I'll fade them again this week as the Golden Hurricane find themselves in a tough spot.    

Kentucky (pick) vs Tennessee

This line is a little curious as Kentucky is ranked and Tennessee is not. Rankings aren't always the be-all-end-all, but in this case, the line makes less sense because the game is at Kentucky and the Wildcats have a better resume. Perhaps there is something I'm missing here, but Kentucky appears to be the better team and it's at home. The Wildcats also have the better defense, which is always comforting when taking a side in a pick 'em game.    

 
Last Week: 1-4-0, Last Season: 19-27-0