This article is part of our CFL Picks series.
CFL Betting: CFL Bets and Props for Grey Cup
We've reached the end of the line in the 2024 CFL season, and the 111th Grey Cup brings us an intriguing rematch from the 2022 game. However, the Argonauts are much bigger underdogs than they otherwise would be due to the loss of starting QB Chad Kelly to a broken tibia in the East Final victory over the Alouettes.
Read on for a look at which two Grey Cup bets catch my eye on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Toronto Argonauts vs. Winnipeg Blue Blue Bombers Best Bets (Sunday, Nov. 17, 6:00 p.m. ET)
The Blue Bombers are the epitome of a battle-tested, championship-caliber squad. Winnipeg will be playing in its fifth consecutive Grey Cup, a streak that dates back to the previous decade. Key components of past success remain in key positions – Zach Collaros, Brady Oliveira, Nic Demski and Kenny Lawler are some pertinent examples.
However, the journey for this year's Bombers team has been a bit different than others. Mike O'Shea's squad looked to be headed anywhere but the Grey Cup after they opened the season 0-4 with losses to the Alouettes, Redblacks, Lions and Stampeders that saw Winnipeg fail to score 20 points on three occasions.
Yet, the team that emerged from that adversity looks primed for its third title since 2019. The Bombers went 11-3 the rest of the way, although two of those losses came by a combined six points to these same Argonauts. Nevertheless, the Toronto team these red-hot Bombers will face is significantly different offensively without Kelly at the helm. Winnipeg also has more recent cumulative rest, as the Bombers had a first-round playoff bye before toppling the Roughriders in the West Final.
Veteran journeyman Nick Arbuckle will take over for Kelly under center in the Argos' offense. While Arbuckle certainly has had his moments throughout his long CFL career and could be replaced by another capable backup in Cameron Dukes if things start to go south, the former's well-documented struggles with turnovers over the years could lead to an early snowball effect in the talented Bombers' defense's favor.
Since the 2021 season, Arbuckle has thrown a whopping 47 interceptions despite making just 22 starts in that span. Meanwhile, the Bombers finished the regular season allowing a league-low 20.3 points per game, 328.6 net offensive yards per game and 33 touchdowns, as well as the second-lowest yards per play (6.34).
In contrast, the Argonauts did a very good job against the run but were a sieve against the pass, surrendering the second-most passing yards per game (296.8), the second-highest completion percentage (70.8), the second-most TD passes (31) and the most completions of 30+ yards (36).
Those vulnerabilities make Collaros and downfield specialist Kenny Lawler an especially dangerous matchup for them, especially considering Lawler has four 100-yard efforts in the last five games, including a four-catch, 177-yard, three-touchdown performance against the Riders in the West Final and a 108-yard tally in Week 19 against Toronto.
I'm ultimately in the camp of a Blue Bombers victory, but with the price on a straight moneyline bet prohibitive, I really like the idea of a same-game parlay that factors in a win and a solid day for Lawler through the air.
As a secondary bet, I don't mind teasing the existing spread of Argonauts +9.5 an additional four points and pairing that with a productive performance by Toronto RB Ka'Deem Carey, who's facing a Bombers defense that did surrender 5.3 yards per carry during the season and gave up 62 rushing yards on just 10 carries to Carey in one of the two regular-season meetings.
CFL Picks for Argonauts vs. Blue Bombers
- SGP: Blue Bombers moneyline and Kenny Lawler 70+ receiving yards (+112 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- SGP: Argonauts alternate spread +13.5 and Ka'Deem Carey 60+ rushing yards (-107 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
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