Final Four Preview: Michigan State vs. Duke

Matchup: The 2015 NCAA Tournament has been all about the bluebloods, and this Final Four matchup is no exception. Coach K has taken the Duke Blue Devils to his 12th Final Four, tying legendary UCLA coach John Wooden for most all-time. The Blue Devils are led by 6-foot-11 Jahlil Okafor, the likely No. 1 pick in this year's NBA Draft, but have multiple offensive weapons. Meanwhile, Tom Izzo leads the Michigan State Spartans into their seventh Final Four since 1999. Four non-conference losses, including one at home to Texas Southern, did not inspire confidence as Michigan State entered January, but that is a distant memory now as the Spartans are rolling. This is the third time Izzo has led the Spartans to the Final Four as a five seed or lower. Coach K is 8-1 all-time vs. the Izzo-led Spartans, including an 81-71 victory earlier this season.

Michigan State Spartans, East Region No. 7 Seed

Backcourt: While the Spartans can score from many angles, it's the play of guard Travis Trice that has elevated this team to the Final Four. Trice has averaged 19.8 points, 4.0 assists and 3.3 rebounds in four tournament games, a far cry from the 6-3-1 line he posted in an overtime loss to Wisconsin in the Big Ten championship. At 6-5, bigger backcourt mate Denzel Valentine gives the Spartans a second scoring option on the perimeter. He has scored at least 15 points in three of the team's four tournament games, while also grabbing six rebounds three times. The Spartans start a three-guard lineup with freshman Lourawls "TumTum" Nairn joining Trice and Valentine, while Bryn Forbes also plays significant minutes. There's depth here, and the soft pressure that Duke has applied throughout the tournament does not figure to disrupt the Spartans guards, who are not often rattled as the shot clock winds down.

Frontcourt: The Spartans' length on the perimeter is paramount because they are undersized on the interior. The frontcourt is led by 6-foot-6 Branden Dawson, who has averaged nearly 10 rebounds a game in the tournament. But after scoring 29 points in the team's first two tournament games, Dawson totaled only 15 last weekend. Still, paired with Valentine and Trice, Dawson gives the Spartans three legitimate scoring options. Unfortunately, that's where the offensive threats end. Gavin Schilling provides starting size at 6-9, 240, but does not play more than 20 minutes a game. Matt Costello, 6-9, 245, sees more minutes as a reserve but has fouled out twice during the tournament. His ability to stay on the court against Duke's bigs will go a long way in the Spartans' upset bid. A 6-6 freshman, Marvin Clark Jr. rounds out the forward rotation.

X-Factor: Free Throws. The Spartans hit only 62.8 percent during the season, hindering their ability to close out games. They have converted an almost identical 62.5 percent during the tournament (55 of 88). At that rate, the Spartans leave nearly nine points on the floor a game. If there is any silver lining, it's the 22 attempts they've averaged on their way to Indianapolis. That many attempts, and a few additional makes, will be needed Saturday. The backcourt can help, as Trice, Valentine and Forbes each makes at least 71.6 percent.

Who They Beat to Get Here:

Georgia, 70-63
Virginia, 60-54
Oklahoma, 62-58
Louisville, 76-70 OT

They'll Win If: they beat Duke at its own game. Yes, the presence of Jahlil Okafor gives Duke a tremendous inside threat, but the Blue Devils have long lived and died by the three-point shot. But it is the Spartans who have reached the Final Four on the heels of three-pointers, both offensively and defensively. Michigan State has hit at least six three-pointers in all four games, nine in two games, resulting in a solid 38.8 percent (31 of 80) clip from the perimeter. And yes, they have averaged 20 attempts. Meanwhile, Sparty has held opponents to just 23.7 percent shooting (14 of 59) from outside. If those averages hold, Michigan State will outscore Duke roughly 24-12 from long range, more than enough to make up for missed free throws and second-chance points allowed.

-- Chris Bennett


Duke Blue Devils, South Region No. 1 Seed

Backcourt: Tyus Jones does not get enough credit for the Blue Devils' success. Often overshadowed by Jahlil Okafor and Justise Winslow in the frontcourt, the freshman Jones is cool, calm and collected. He averages 5.7 assists per game, gets to the rack with relative ease and is an excellent free-throw shooter, much like his backcourt counterpart, Quinn Cook. The senior Cook has had his best season for the Blue Devils, switching primarily to shooting guard this year. He has responded by shooting more than 40 percent from three-point land en route to a career-high 15.5 points per game. Cook also provides stifling defense and is almost always asked to defend the opponent's best guard.

Frontcourt: Jahlil Okafor's strengths have been highlighted ad neauseum throughout the season; the 7-footer is not only big and strong, but also agile, smooth and polished in the post. He can beat his defender with his back to the basket or while facing up. His defensive intensity has been questioned at times, but his big body in the middle often is intimidation enough for opposing drivers. Meanwhile, the best player for the Blue Devils in the tourney has been Justise Winslow. At 6-7, 225, he is a freight train coming down the court on the fast break, but he can also step out and hit a contested jumper. He consistently makes clutch plays, whether nailing a crucial trey or swatting an opponent's shot.

X-Factor: Matt Jones. In the Elite Eight win over Gonzaga, the sophomore guard scored 16 points for a Duke squad that is not deep. That included four three-pointers for Jones, who shoots 38.7 percent from long distance. Jones only averages 6.1 points per game, but when he finds his stroke, the Blue Devils are incredibly difficult to beat. Duke is 10-0 when Jones hits at least two three-pointers in a game this season, with an average margin of victory of 24.7 points.

Who They Beat to Get Here:

Robert Morris, 85-56
San Diego State, 68-49
Utah, 63-57
Gonzaga, 66-52

They'll Win If: they can contain Michigan State from three-point territory. The Spartans looked lost in the first half against Louisville, but the three-point shot kept Michigan State in the game. The Spartans hit nine three-pointers against the Cardinals, including four from sharpshooter Bryn Forbes. The Blue Devils did a superior job defending the three-point line against Gonzaga, as the Bulldogs shot just 2 of 10 from long distance. Not only did the Blue Devils defend the three-point line well, but they chased Gonzaga off several more opportunities with superb court awareness, timely rotations and overall effort.

-- Jesse Siegel


PREDICTION

Bennett: This game plays out nearly as the stats script. Duke controls the lead for the majority of the game, while a hot, confident and scrappy Michigan State team punches back often and remains within striking distance. But ultimately, Duke's size and Michigan State's lack of frontcourt depth prove decisive. Even if they enter the final four minutes with a lead, the Spartans miss scoring chances down the stretch, and Duke's Justice Winslow continues to show he's a clutch scorer. Duke prevails in the neighborhood of 70-64.

Siegel: The Blue Devils average 80.6 points per game, but Coach K slowed the pace against Gonzaga, as Duke limited possessions and played stifling defense down the stretch to seal the victory. Duke likely will try to ratchet up the pace again, forcing the sometimes offensively clumsy Spartans to keep up. If Okafor and Winslow can get Branden Dawson into foul trouble, the Blue Devils will be tough to beat. Let's also not forget that the Spartans do not have anybody taller than 6-9. Expect the double team to come early and often once Jahlil Okafor gets the ball down low. However, defense will play the biggest factor. If Duke plays with the type of defensive intensity exhibited against Gonzaga, the Blue Devils will be nearly impossible to beat. The Spartans have the experience, and Tom Izzo is a coaching dynamo. But the Blue Devils have too much talent, athleticism and court spacing, and ultimately Okafor and Winslow will carry the day for Duke.