This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.
Top Players:
Myles Powell, Seton Hall ($8,500 FD, $9,200 DK): Powell and the Pirates get one of the best matchups of the night on paper. It's the highest over/under of the night on the DraftKings slate, and second to only California/UCLA on FanDuel. Georgetown plays at a top-20 tempo with a defense outside the top-100 in adjusted efficiency (per KenPom), which has made them a team to target all year. Powell has dominated the usage over the last 10 games, but Quincy McKnight ($6,100 FD, $6,200 DK) should also be considered along that same line of thinking. After that the Pirates spread the ball around pretty well, but each starter gets an uptick due to the matchup. Powell becomes an elite play after averaging 37.7 FD points over his last three -- which could very well be the floor here.
Terence Davis, Mississippi ($8,100 FD, $8,800 DK): There's a lot to like in this matchup, with both Auburn and Ole Miss playing at above-average tempos with defense that leaves much to be desired at times. I'm not sure I like Davis as much as Myles Powell, purely on a matchup basis, but I couldn't fault anyone for wanting to make this pivot. Davis gets guard eligibility but rebounds like a forward, leading the team with 6.3 RPG. For good measure, he also leads the Rebels in assists and steals to go along with his 16.2 PPG average.The senior has gone under 20 DK points just once in conference play, and
Top Players:
Myles Powell, Seton Hall ($8,500 FD, $9,200 DK): Powell and the Pirates get one of the best matchups of the night on paper. It's the highest over/under of the night on the DraftKings slate, and second to only California/UCLA on FanDuel. Georgetown plays at a top-20 tempo with a defense outside the top-100 in adjusted efficiency (per KenPom), which has made them a team to target all year. Powell has dominated the usage over the last 10 games, but Quincy McKnight ($6,100 FD, $6,200 DK) should also be considered along that same line of thinking. After that the Pirates spread the ball around pretty well, but each starter gets an uptick due to the matchup. Powell becomes an elite play after averaging 37.7 FD points over his last three -- which could very well be the floor here.
Terence Davis, Mississippi ($8,100 FD, $8,800 DK): There's a lot to like in this matchup, with both Auburn and Ole Miss playing at above-average tempos with defense that leaves much to be desired at times. I'm not sure I like Davis as much as Myles Powell, purely on a matchup basis, but I couldn't fault anyone for wanting to make this pivot. Davis gets guard eligibility but rebounds like a forward, leading the team with 6.3 RPG. For good measure, he also leads the Rebels in assists and steals to go along with his 16.2 PPG average.The senior has gone under 20 DK points just once in conference play, and is averaging 38.9 over his last five. He had 27 points and 12 rebounds when the Rebels hosted Auburn back on Jan. 9.
Jessie Govan, Georgetown ($9,300 DK, $7,800 FD): In general, FanDuel pricing has been much more competitive and reactionary than that of DraftKings in the 2018-19 season, and that is extremely evident here. Govan is averaging just 23.2 DK points over his last four games, due largely to a 6.5-point dud against Villanova. I can hardly fault him for that, but he's far from a player that should be topping the pricing charts on any site at this stage of the season. It's much easier to stomach on FanDuel, especially given this game has the second-highest over/under on the slate, and Seton Hall plays with the No. 78 adjusted tempo in the country. I'd still prefer other players in his tier on FanDuel, but that's not to say there isn't a GPP angle here.
Jordan Murphy, Minnesota ($8,400 FD): Murphy catches himself in an exceptional spot here due to several factors. First, Nebraska hasn't won a game since the unfortunate loss of Isaac Copeland to a season-ending ACL injury, due in big part to a real lack of post defense. That's exactly what Murphy is here to exploit. Furthermore, we have a banged-up starting center for the Gophers in Eric Curry (calf), who is a true game-time call Wednesday. If he does play, there's a chance he's not 100 percent. Murphy had a poor showing Saturday against Michigan State (which can happen to anyone), but recorded double-doubles in the previous six contests, hitting 40 or more FD points three times.
Value Plays:
Kaleb Joseph, Creighton ($3,500 DK): Joseph has now started consecutive games for the Blue Jays, filling in for Marcus Zegarowski (hand), who is just getting out of a cast. Don't expect much ceiling, but I'll take 30 MPG and 16.6 FD points/game over his last three at this price.
Collin Smith, UCF ($5,100 DK): Here's a fun one. Smith had 41.0 DK points his last time out, yet his price remains stagnant. That's because he registered -0.25 points the game before against the conference's best team in Houston. The previous six games were all between 18.25 and 26.5 DK points, so I'll take an average floor now that we've seen his ceiling.
Braxton Beverly, NC State ($6,100 FD, $4,900 DK): This one is primarily for DraftKings, where the $1200 difference is the greatest discrepancy on the whole slate outside of Jessie Govan. There's some inconsistency to deal with, but teams launch a lot of three-pointers against the Syracuse zone, and Beverly could be in for a good day if he's on. He leads the Wolf Pack with 55 three-pointers made.
Jamorko Pickett, Georgetown ($5,600 FD, $4,700 DK): It's a fast-paced game, and we have a starter that's averaged 24.8 DK points over his last three. If you can't work in the high-priced studs (or even if you can), Pickett is a great way to sneak in some exposure.
Game to Target:
Auburn (-8) vs. Mississippi, o/u 151.5, 8:30 p.m. EST
The highest over/under of the night goes to Seton Hall vs. Georgetown, but since I discussed a few of those players in both sections above, we'll move to No. 2. Here we have a rematch of a Jan. 9 contest where 149 total points were scored, but this time Auburn gets the home court advantage and will be looking to avenge a 15-point loss. Bryce Brown ($6,300 FD, $6,400 DK) was the go-to shooter in that one, attempting 24 field goals and 19 three-pointers in his 36 minutes. No guarantee he sees the same volume, but I still think I prefer him to the more expensive Jared Harper ($8,000 FD, $8,000 DK). What's mainly different from the first game is the Auburn frontcourt alignment. Austin Wiley ($5,000 FD, $5,300 DK) started that game, but has since missed time with a lower-leg injury and has seen just eight combined minutes off the bench in his last two. Chuma Okeke ($7,800 FD, $6,900 DK) has been the main beneficiary, and I like him on DraftKings with the price break. He's had 33.8 DK points/game over his last three, and hasn't been below 20 in a month. For those feeling dangerous, Anfernee McLemore ($4,900 FD, $4,800 DK) and Horace Spencer ($4,500 FD, $4,400 DK) are other frontcourt options that could see extra looks with Wiley limited, especially if Okeke gets whistled early.
I discussed Davis above, but we can't disregard leading scorer Breein Tyree ($8,000 FD, $7,500 DK), who is averaging 38.0 DK points/game over his last three. I still prefer Davis, who is less scoring dependent, but a full-on stack could feature both. Tyree struggled in their first meeting with more turnovers (6) than points (5). After the top-two, the pricing for Ole Miss drops off quite a bit. Dominick Olejniczak ($4,700 FD, $4,400 DK) had his second-best fantasy day of the year in their first meeting and is super cheap, but has been in single-digit fantasy points in two of his last three. Conditions are better this time with Wiley limited, but I wouldn't go here outside of GPPs. The same goes for Devontae Shuler ($6,400 FD, $5,900 DK), who scored 14 back on Jan. 9, but was kept off the glass with only one board. I like the lineup flexibility offered by freshman G/F Blake Hinson ($5,500 FD, $4,800 DK), who is third on the team in usage over their last 10 games. There's plenty to like on the whole in this matchup.
Game to Fade:
Virginia Tech (-12) vs. Georgia Tech, o/u 123.5, 8:00 p.m. EST
The Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech matchup is equally unappealing, but we'll stick to the matchup that is found on both sites for the purposes of this column.
Justin Robinson (foot) doesn't appear to be much closer to returning, and the Hokies have slowed down their pace considerably since their second-leading scorer went down. While Georgia Tech and their 11-13 record doesn't seem menacing, they do have the No. 12 mark in the nation in defensive efficiency, per KenPom. The Virginia Tech numbers are even worse, as they sport the No. 18 defense and No. 332 adjusted tempo. You *might* be able to convince me that Abdoulaye Gueye ($5,600 FD, $6,100 DK) is in play after reaching double figures in seven of his last eight, but I do expect him to get a face full of Kerry Blackshear for most of the game. I'm having a tough time rationalizing anybody else.
