This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.
DraftKings' main slate Tuesday evening gets going at 6:30 p.m. and stretches tips until 8:30 p.m., where nine games are in place for us to sort through. We've got a $2,000 first-place prize and $8,000 in overall prizes available for a $15 entry, which is becoming prety normal at this point.
Five of the nine games have totals of at least 150 points, highlighted by Florida-LSU which sits at 161.0. Three of the remaining four games leave plenty to be desired in the scoring column, with totals of 136.0 or less, low-lighted by Pittsburgh at Virginia's low 123.0
Top Players
Armando Bacot, F, North Carolina ($8,700)
It's usually wise to use one of North Carolina's big three whenever they're on the slate, and Bacot looks like the choice Tuesday even with his surging price. He's turned in three-straight double-doubles, averaging 19.7 points and 12.7 rebounds. He also posted a double-double in a prior meeting with Syracuse despite playing just 17 minutes. Syracuse plays fast (31st in tempo, per KenPom), and doesn't defend the interior well, allowing a 53.0 percent success rate on 2-point attempts (284th) while ranking 279th in offensive rebound percentage allowed. The Orange simply do not have size to battle Bacot.
Marcus Domask, G/F, Illinois ($7,600)
The Illini profile almost identically to the Tar Heels Tuesday; they have three solid fantasy options and face a team that isn't elite defensively, ranking 179th, which results in Illinois having an 84.5 point implied total. Domask is my preference here over Terrence Shannon and Coleman Hawkins simply because of position flexibility and the slightly cheaper price tag. Domask offers well-rounded production and a stable floor, which is something I've struggled to highlight successfully in this upper tier throughout the season. Since December 22, he's been under 29.0 DKP just three times in 12 outings, and that floor was 24.5 DKP, which happened to come over the weekend. A bounce back is in store, leading to a 4x return on investment.
Middle Tier
Walter Clayton, G, Florida ($6,600)
Florida scores, and LSU gives up points freely, leading to the Gators 85+ point implied total here. UF also gets production from multiple players, so its not the easiest squad to go in on. I'll take a stab here on a second-tier option in Clayton, who's scored 18+ in three of his last four and is averaging 17.2 points in conference play. He doesn't do much peripherally, averaging 3.5 rebounds and 1.7 assists, so the ceiling is limited unless he erupts in the scoring column, but with LSU ranking 213th in 3-point percentage defense, there's a good chance Clayton does just that.
Viktor Lakhin, F, Cincinnati ($5,700)
The price has fallen so much here that Lakhin seems worth the reduced risk. He's not in good form, missing a game due to illness and seeing 48 total minutes across three games since returning, twice not earning more than 5.25 DKP. Plus, Iowa State is elite defensively, ranking third in efficiency. Everything points against Lakhin bouncing back here, but it's a shot I'm willing to take on a player who has been priced as high $8,000 in December. Nothing is out there to suggest his minutes will increase, so it's a hunch/gut play rather than one based in statistics. At this price, if we get pre-illness Lakhin, he's going to return 4-5x this low number.
Bargain Options
Jaelin Llewellyn, G, Michigan ($4,900)
It's a broken record for me and this column when Michigan is on the road. This is an easy out for me, and an unoriginal thought, but that doesn't make it wrong. With Dug McDaniel not playing Tuesday, Llewellyn will again draw a start in his absence. This didn't work out too well over the weekend, when Llewellyn had a low 14.75 DKP across his now four starts. He still took 12 shots, however, so it's not like opportunity wasn't there. He's had at least 22.0 DKP in his other three starts, which seems to suggest a 3x floor and a 4x or better ceiling.
Jacob Groves, F, Virginia ($4,800)
Groves is quietly emerging off of the Cavaliers' bench. Over his last five games, he's had a 13.75 DKP floor and a 32.5 DKP ceiling, piling up an impressive 25.4 percent usage rate while averaging 13.2 points and 2.6 rebounds. He's been an elite shooter, hitting an obscene 72.7 percent from 3-point range. That doesn't play into Pittsburgh's defense, which ranks 24th at defending the arch, but Groves has taken eight or more shots in four straight, so we should feel confident the volume will be viable. It's obviously a risk; he doesn't start and the game has the slate's lowest total by 13 points, but even 15 DKP here works just fine.
