This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.
The holidays are approaching, which means the occasionally lighter college basketball DFS slate. Still, we have a $2k top prize up for grabs, and with my Badgers being one of the featured games, I figured we'd go ahead and break it down.
With that out of the way, let's take a look at the rest of the potential options.
Top Tier
Jake Stephens, F, Chattanooga ($9,100)
I'll be the first to admit the Mocs have played a pretty soft schedule since losing to Mississippi on Nov. 15, though that has helped in Stephens putting together a four-game streak of 50+ DK points. Chattanooga's implied total of 66.5 ranks sixth out of eight teams on Thursday's slate, and MTSU ranks in the top-41 nationally in both offensive and defensive rebounding rate. That being said, Stephens still has the highest ceiling of any player. I might be a little lighter than the field on him given the need for a balanced lineup due to difficulty finding value Thursday, but it's far too risky to exclude him altogether.
K.J. Simpson, F, Colorado ($8,300)
Colorado checks in with the highest implied total of the slate, and while the Buffaloes run a relatively deep rotation, Simpson is one of the safest plays. He leads the team with a 30.7 percent usage rate (next highest among starters is 22.1), in addition to averaging the most minutes and overall fantasy points over the team's last five games. He's coming off a 39.3 DK point effort and has reached as high as 56.3 DK points this season, making him another strong pay-up option to anchor lineups around.
Tyler Wahl, F, Wisconsin ($8,200)
All Badgers are in play Thursday, as Lehigh checks in with the 25th-fastest adjusted tempo in the nation, mixed with a defense that ranks all the way down at 260 in efficiency (per KenPom). Wahl boasts a usage rate nearly seven percent higher than any other Badger over the last five games, as he's the team's go-to option when in need of a bucket. Chucky Hepburn ($7,900) is the point guard if you're looking for a pivot, but working in both is absolutely in play. Center Steven Crowl ($7,400) has paid off before, and while his salary is a bit high for my liking, he should absolutely be in the player pool in mass entry, especially considering the Mountain Hawks' 335th-ranked offensive rebounding rate.
Middle Tier
Dexter Akanno, G, Oregon State ($5,800)
The Beavers are off to an underwhelming 4-6 start to the season, but despite the team's slow pace, there are fantasy opportunities worth looking into. Akanno leads the team in usage rate and three-point shot attempts, in addition to checking in at second in minutes, so he's worth a flier at a friendly salary. Perhaps better suited for cash games, Akanno has reached double-digit DK points in ever game this season, though his ceiling to date is just 30.5.
Also Considered: Elias King, G, MTSU ($6,200); Dominique Clifford, G, Colorado ($5,700)
Value Tier
Max Klesmit, G, Wisconsin ($5,500)
As previously noted, the Wisconsin matchup Thursday is as good as it gets for DFS, so when there are only four games to choose from, I'm going back to the well here for my value. The price of sixth-man Connor Essegian ($6,600) is now borderline prohibitive, but let's take a look at another three-point shooter that will stay on the court for his defense. Klesmit's usage rate of 11.4 percent isn't much to write home about, but he's third on the squad in minutes and averaging 19.5 DK points over his last three games. The up-tempo matchup could pave the way increased production in ancillary stats and a 4x value.
Riley Grigsby, G, Seattle ($5,200)
Grigsby could very well end up as the chalk option of the slate, as Seattle is in for a close matchup against likely Pac-12 bottom dwellers in Oregon State. The fifth-year wing is third on the team in both usage rate (23.8 percent) and minutes played (27.4 mpg) over the last five games, and he's coming off performances of 32.0 and 22.7 DK points. Without many value options Thursday, he's a perfect lineup filler despite a down-tempo matchup.
Lastly, there are several Chattanooga options that will mathematically show up in optimizers, and getting these right will likely be the key to the slate. One is Dalvin White ($3,600), who was extremely productive prior to missing the last two games. Another is Khristion Courseault ($4,800), who missed a seven-game stretch but has been steady in the two games he's played since returning, albeit against weaker competition. Randy Brady ($3,800) is coming off his first start (against a D2 opponent), and that resulted in 26.3 DK points. I can't recommend any of these in good conscience, but guess right, and you'll be on the fast track to taking down a GPP.
