This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.
Top Players
Isaiah Mobley, F, USC ($9,200)
The pick is all about the matchup. Arizona State is arguably the worst rebounding team in the Pac-12, recording the worst offensive rebounding rate and third-worst defensive rebounding rate since conference play started. USC, on the other hand, has the second-highest rebounding rate (both offensive and defensive) in the Pac-12 during conference play, giving the Trojans a significant advantage on the glass. Isaiah Mobley is the team's leading rebounder and scorer, so he should be the primary beneficiary in this matchup. Mobley is coming off a season-high 24-point performance against California, his fifth contest of the season with 20-plus points. Furthermore, Mobley has scored in double figures in 12 of his last 13 games, so he has a great opportunity for a double-double considering the Trojans' rebounding edge. I should also note, Chevez Goodwin is another strong option here, as he's second on the team in rebounds while also leading the team in usage rate.
Andrew Nembhard, G, Gonzaga ($7,600)
No surprise here, as Gonzaga is once again projected to score the most points on the slate. Andrew Nembhard is an intriguing option, as he's been playing at a higher gear since conference season started, scoring in double figures in four of six conference games, including multiple performances with 20-plus points. Additionally, Nembhard also boasts the highest assist rate and second-highest offensive efficiency rating among all WCC players since conference play began. The Bulldogs are so loaded that sometimes it's hard to predict which player will be the most productive on any given night, but either way, starting point guard Nembard should be significantly involved throughout the game, racking up assists along the way. He already has a couple of games this season with double-digit assists, and based on today's scoring projections, I like his chances for another one.
Middle Tier
Marco Anthony, G, Utah ($6,300)
Oregon State has the worst defense in the Pac-12, and it's not close. Most notably, the Beavers are struggling to stop opponents inside the arc. Oregon State's defense is allowing opponents to make 55 percent of two-point field goal attempts, nearly ranking in the bottom five percent of the country. And as bad as that sounds, Oregon State's defense has been even worse since conference season started, allowing Pac-12 opponents to make 60 percent of attempted two-point field goals. Marco Anthony leads the Utes in two-point field goal attempts this season, so based on the matchup, we can probably expect a few more of those attempts to fall through the basket in today's contest. And despite being listed as a guard on DK, Marco Anthony also leads the team in rebounding, which is convenient because Oregon State also ranks last in the conference in terms of defensive rebounding rate. All in all, Marco Anthony has a good shot at providing value considering the highly favorable matchup.
Efe Abogidi, F, Washington State ($5,700)
Given the matchup at Stanford today, it appears we're going to have a block party on our hands. Since conference play started, Stanford ranks dead last in the Pac-12 with allowing the highest rate of blocked shots on offense. Coincidentally, Washington State boasts the highest defensive shot blocking rate in the conference. This takes us to Efe Abogidi, who currently leads the team in blocked shots by a wide margin. Additionally, Abogidi also has the highest offensive efficiency rating among all Pac-12 players during conference season, as well as the highest offensive rebounding rate. Abogigi probably won't lead the team in scoring, but, considering the favorable matchup, he should still provide some value when it's all said and done.
Value Plays
Montez Mathis, G, St. John's ($5,200)
St. John's has the pleasurable distinction of going against the worst defense on the slate, in terms of KenPom's adjusted efficiency ratings. Georgetown's defense is particularly vulnerable inside the paint, allowing Big East opponents to make 57 percent of two-point field goal attempts since conference season started, the worst percentage in the Big East. Montez Mathis has attempted the third-most two-point field goals on the team this season, so he naturally sees a boost in this contest considering Georgetown's weakness. Mathis was a bit inconsistent earlier in the season, although he's scored nine-plus points in four straight games, so he appears locked-in now that conference season is heating up.
Quincy Guerrier, F, Oregon ($4,900)
This pick is a gamble but has a chance at paying off assuming history can repeat itself. Two games ago on Jan. 25, Guerrier had his best game of the season, scoring 22 points and grabbing six rebounds against Colorado. These same two teams are going at it once again, so I'm rolling the dice on Guerrier having another outstanding performance. Guerrier has scored in double figures in three of the past five games while collecting at least four rebounds in all but one of the five games. Guerrier carries a slight risk, as he has put up a few duds this season, but ultimately I'm trusting that Guerrier will have another productive game against a familiar opponent, one that he dominated just over a week ago.
