This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.
Four more games are there for the taking Friday evening. It's a slightly smaller GPP tournament than Thursday, but it still comes with $20,000 to first place with five total five-figure prizes available.
Overall, Friday's slate is expected to be slightly lower scoring than Thursday's based on over-unders, but three of the four games are pretty tight in expected points to Thursday's action. Houston-Duke is the outlier with a 134.0 expected total, but Houston just gave up 95 points, and Duke just scored 93 points, so we should absolutely still consider this game.
As we've noted all year long, Zach Edey is present here, and the price creates a lineup-build conundrum. If you're in multi-entry formats, you have to use him in some lineups and see what you can find to balance. Single entries, well, I can't make that call for you. We know he's an absolute beast and well worth the price. But he hasn't been a play here all season due to cost, and that will remain the case.
Top Targets
Tyler Kolek, G, Marquette ($8,400)
Kolek hasn't missed a beat since returning from his injury, playing all but two minutes in the Golden Eagles' first two games, handing out 11 assists in each and showing a 44.25 DKP floor. Marquette has an implied total of 78.75 points, and I think their path is to push the pace constantly and get DJ Burns off the floor often. And that all starts with Kolek. While Marquette ranks "just" 93rd in tempo, they rank ninth in length of possession. They'll get it up and down and have a plethora of possessions as a result. Kolek possesses a super safe floor with plenty of upside, with his tournament production being a 5.3x return.
Trey Alexander, G, Creighton ($7,900)
Creighton's offense runs through three players, and Alexander is the cheapest. That alone makes him attractive, but he's also seen a 28.0 percent usage rate over his last five games while averaging 40.4 minutes. Yes, that's correct, due partly to last week's double-overtime game. Still, he's played all but eight minutes combined in that stretch, putting up 18.6 points, 4.8 rebounds and 3.8 assists. I'll be curious to see how Tennessee matches up here because I think Creighton has a decent size advantage across their starting five. Alexander never leaves the floor and will get some clean looks, be it because of size or ball rotation.
Middle Tier
Mark Mitchell, F, Duke ($6,000)
Duke's path against Houston is to take advantage of their size, as Mitchell (6-foot-9) and Kyle Filipowski (7-foot) have two to five inches on any Cougar. But Filipowski has been a no-show in the tournament, not factoring in the Blue Devils' first game and playing just 21 minutes against JMU due to foul trouble. I love him as a low-used, high-potential player, but the form can't allow me to recommend him anymore at his price. So enter Mitchell, who has been steady but not spectacular, averaging 23.75 DKP last week. But he sports upside, as Mitchell has eight games with at least 32.0 DKP on the year, and pairing that with the price point and the matchup, and I like it!
J'Wan Roberts, F, Houston ($5,700)
There are a plethora of forwards priced above Mitchell that I like, Ben Gregg being my favorite. But we're simply trying to offer some plays in every pricing tier, and Roberts is priced down considerably, making him attractive. We noted the size Duke has on Houston, so fouls are a concern, but this guy has been priced as high as $7,500 and easily has 30+ DKP upside. And he simply has to stay on the court for the Cougars to have any shot at prevailing. It's just him and Ja'Vier Francis in the paint for Houston, and Francis only gains upside by Roberts being on the bench, yet they're priced within $300 of each other.
Bargain Options
Ben Middlebrooks, F, North Carolina State ($4,800)
During the regular season, we try to define a bargain as being under $5,000 while knowing finding anyone under $4,000 is going to be a complete punt or a mispriced player in a new role. On this slate, however, we have only 10 players within that window, making it incredibly difficult to like any option. The appeal in Middlebrooks for me is that he spells Burns, who, as noted above, could be paced out of this game. The last three times Middlebrooks has played 25-plus minutes, he's averaged 30.0 DKP, so there's a nice ceiling. And over his last 13 games, he's been in single-digit fantasy points just three times, so if 2x is the floor, so be it.
Trey Kaufman-Renn, F, Purdue ($4,400)
Pay no attention to Kaufman-Renn's last two games, as they've offered upside thanks to blowouts, which I don't think will happen here. But I do think he's a much-needed player for the Boilermakers, given the size Gonzaga can throw at them. Kaufman-Renn has averaged a 3.3x return at this price on the year, and the expectation in using him should be to open spending up elsewhere. But if the Bulldogs can play two or three bigs at a time, even in spurts, Kaufman-Renn will be needed to combat that, which can result in more minutes and production. And if you roll with all four forwards listed here, which is never the purpose of this column, you'd be left with nearly $7,300 left for your other four spots, opening up a world of possibilities.
