This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
The ACC and Big East resume the conference season on New Year's Day, with many notable teams taking the court. Here are my predictions for a trio of games tipping off later in the day.
Stanford 
at Clemson 
The Cardinal won nine of 12 games to start the season, a solid record, although it rings a bit hollow entering 2025. Stanford has played an easy slate, ranking 277th in strength of schedule, giving them just three opportunities for a quality win. They defeated Santa Clara on the "road," but then lost two Grand Canyon by seven points and most recently lost to Oregon by 15 points. The Cardinal also tripped over Cal Poly by seven points, an opponent that ranks 248th in overall efficiency, a bad loss if we ever saw one. Additionally, Stanford has yet to leave the state of California. Its only two "road" games came against teams from the Bay Area, and its only neutral site was played in Palm Springs. Now, it must travel across the continent to South Carolina.
In stark contrast, the Tigers have already assembled an impressive resume, with many more opportunities to come. Clemson has defeated San Francisco, Penn State, Kentucky, and Miami (on the road), all qualifying as quality wins, per KenPom. Clemson also nearly defeated Memphis and South Carolina but lost both games in overtime. The Tigers don't have any bad losses despite ranking 64th in strength of schedule, making this a team that looks on track to go dancing in March. KenPom favors Clemson in 15 of the 18 remaining conference games.
When Stanford has the ball on Wednesday, it will face a tough Clemson defense without any clear weaknesses. The Tigers rank 27th in defensive efficiency and rank well above average in many important categories such as effective field goal percentage, turnovers, rebounding, and free-throw attempts allowed. Their best attribute is causing chaos, ranking 37th in turnover percentage, but the road team's best offensive trait is protecting the ball, ranking 18th in turnovers, effectively neutralizing the defense's strength.
When Clemson has the ball, it will go against a relatively soft defense. Stanford ranks 130th in defensive efficiency and it's had noticeable trouble with protecting the paint. The Cardinal is allowing opponents to score over 50 percent on two-point shots, 154th in the nation, and it's often getting penalized, ranking 262nd in free-throw attempt rate allowed. Clemson has been successful offensively in most areas. It ranks 40th in efficiency and has a similar standing in turnover percentage and offensive rebounding. It's also exceptionally effective from the perimeter. The Tigers are knocking down over 37 percent of shots from behind the arc, the 47th-highest mark. They are also shooting them at a high clip, 168th in free-throw attempt rate, making this a dangerous offensive team.
Overall, I lean towards Clemson, but the massive spread leaves me less confident, especially since Stanford is capable of putting up a lot of points. Instead, I like our odds of seeing a high-scoring game. I'm on the over.
College Basketball Best Bet: Over 142
North Carolina 
at Louisville 
The Tar Heels played one of the most challenging slates during the non-conference season, ranking fifth in strength of schedule, per KenPom. They have the scars to prove it, incurring five losses during the process, but they also earned a pair of hard-fought victories over Dayton and UCLA. Both of these wins look more impressive as time goes on, giving North Carolina a resume it can build on during ACC play. All of its losses came against teams that rank 20th or better in overall efficiency, so this is a team that's certainly better than its record.
The Cardinals, on the other hand, are trending in the wrong direction. Following a big overtime win against West Virginia at the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament, Louisville boasted a 5-1 record and ranked 39th on KenPom's overall efficiency chart, but it has been slacking ever since. The Cardinals proceeded to lose four of their next five games, all against top-tier competition, and all losses by five points or more. More recently, Louisville has won three of its last four games, but its last two home games have hardly inspired confidence. The Cardinals defeated UTEP by three points on Dec. 11 and beat Eastern Kentucky by two points this past Saturday. Both opponents rank 140th or worse in overall efficiency, so the fact that Louisville had close calls against both does not bode well as it enters the heart of conference season.
If North Carolina advances in March, its offensive attack will be the reason. The Tar Heels rank 17th in offensive efficiency and have already proven they can put up large numbers on some of the best defensive teams in the country. North Carolina scored over 80 points against Kansas, Michigan State, and Florida, and then scored 76 points in a win over UCLA. The scoring pace should continue on Wednesday, as Louisville has not been sharp defensively, ranking 80th in efficiency. It's decent at causing turnovers and securing boards, but it's had trouble allowing open shots. The Cardinals are allowing opponents to make 51 percent of shots inside the arc, and 36 percent beyond it, yielding an effective field goal percentage that ranks 221st in the nation.
Louisville typically plays better at the other end of the court, where it ranks 51st in offensive efficiency. This isn't bad, but it's also not much better than North Carolina's standing on defense, 62nd in efficiency. The bigger issue for the Cardinals is that they are terrible at converting long-range shots despite chucking them at an alarmingly high rate. Louisville has made just 30 percent of shots beyond the arc, 303rd among all D-1 teams, and yet they have the third-highest three-point attempt rate. Needless to say, this is not a recipe for success. Shot selection issues aside, the Cardinals are much better at close range, making almost 58 percent of two-pointers. The only problem is that the Tar Heels have shown an ability to contain opponents in the paint, allowing 48 percent on shots inside the arc, the 86th-best mark.
The Cardinals have shown massive improvement from a year ago, but now we're about to find out how far they've really come. They had close calls against middling D-1 teams in their last two home games, and then they got blown at home by double-digits to Duke and Mississippi in the two games prior. Winning on the road is never a given, but North Carolina appears poised to get the job done. I'm taking the Tar Heels in this spot.
College Basketball Best Bet: North Carolina +1.5
Villanova 
at Butler 
The Wildcats began the first month on the brink of disaster, losing four of their first seven games. They have since rebounded to win five of their last six, but their resume looks questionable at best. Villanova lost to Columbia (at home), Saint Joseph's, and Virginia, all by seven points or more. Most recently, it went on the road and lost to Creighton by seven. The Wildcats' lone bright spot has been their eight-point win against Cincinnati, undoubtedly a quality win, even if it's their only one so far.
The Bulldogs were flying high at the start of December, boasting a 7-1 record and having just defeated SMU, Northwestern, and Mississippi State. Unfortunately for Butler, the schedule got even harder and it hasn't won a game since, limping into the New Year with a five-game losing streak. The past month was rough, but it's important to note that Butler ranks 32nd in strength of schedule and lost to Houston (road), Wisconsin, Marquette (road), and Connecticut during this rough patch. The Bulldogs took the 'L' in their last two games, but they played the Golden Eagles and Huskies well enough to improve their standing on the overall efficiency chart. Butler trailed UConn by two points with under a minute remaining, seemingly ready to snap their losing streak.
Villanova and Butler are similar in that they're both significantly better on offense. The difference is that Villanova lives at the extreme end of this equation. The Wildcats rank seventh in offensive efficiency, and 196th on defense, while the Bulldogs rank 58th in offensive efficiency and 102nd on defense.
Even though Villanova has a seemingly elite offense, its task won't be easy on Wednesday. Butler has impressive raw defensive numbers despite going through a gauntlet. The Bulldogs rank in the top 40 of the nation in effective field goal percentage allowed, free-throw attempt rate allowed, and two-point field goal percentage allowed. Simply put, they don't give up many easy baskets.
At the other end of the court, Butler's offense, which isn't bad, will go against a defense that doesn't rank highly in many categories. It's best at snagging defensive boards and two-point field goal percentage allowed, 48 percent, but it's close to average or below the D-1 average in many other areas. Most noticeably, the Wildcats are allowing opponents to make 37 percent from beyond the arc, 316th among all D-1 teams. A loose perimeter defense doesn't bode well against Butler, as the Bulldogs are making 39 percent from three-point range. They are also attempting three-pointers at a high frequency, 111th to be exact, making Butler a dangerous team in any given game, especially against a team that lacks perimeter defense.
Villanova has yet to win a game on the road or at a neutral site. All of its wins have come at home making Wednesday's game a revealing test. Butler, in contrast, has already won multiple games against opponents that have a higher overall efficiency rating than Wednesday's visitors, giving the Bulldogs reason to believe they will snap their five-game losing streak. It's not easy backing a team on a skid, but the streak has to end eventually. For these reasons, I believe Wednesday is the day. I'm taking the Bulldogs.
College Basketball Best Bet: Butler +2.5
Wednesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Wednesday:
- Stanford at Clemson - Over 142
- North Carolina +1.5
- Butler +2.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
