College Basketball Best Bets: Picks, Odds & Predictions for Thursday, Jan. 5

Many notable Big Ten and Pac-12 conference matchups highlight Thursday's college basketball slate. Steve Peralta breaks down some of the action and offers up his best bets of the day.

Maryland at Rutgers

Maryland was looking good at the start of December, standing tall with a perfect 8-0 record, but the Terrapins' stock has taken a nosedive ever since. Maryland has now lost four of its last six games, with the only two wins coming against Saint Peter's and UMBC. Furthermore, Maryland has been unable to score more than 60 points against the last four major-conference teams it has played. The Terrapins now travel to New Jersey to play a Rutgers team that boasts the third-best defense in the country, per KenPom's adjusted efficiency standings, so it doesn't seem very likely that Maryland will buck that trend in Thursday's game. In fact, Rutgers hasn't allowed more than 60 points at home since November 12 -- the only home game out of 10 in which it allowed more than 60 points. Moreover, Rutgers has held opponents to 50 points or fewer in seven home games. Maryland could barely muster up 46 points at Michigan on New Year's Day, so it faces a daunting task on Thursday.

Much like its defense, Rutgers' offensive attack has been sharper at home as well. The Scarlet Knights have scored at least 80 points in their last three home games and have reached that number in eight of 10 games total. While it might not score that many points going against a Maryland, Rutgers plays at a higher level at home any way you look at it. This has been a long-term trend for Rutgers, as last season the Scarlet Knights scored an average of 69 points per game at home against Big Ten teams while allowing just 60 points per game. Furthermore, Rutgers is winning its home games by an average margin of 26 points per game.

Overall, these two teams are trending in opposite directions. With Rutgers playing at home, it's hard not to back the Scarlet Knights. I'll lay the points and trust that its suffocating defense will help them pull away by the end of the game.

College Basketball Best Bet: Rutgers -6

Purdue at Ohio St.

Purdue arguably has the best four-game stretch of performances of any team this season, knocking off Marquette, West Virginia, Gonzaga and Duke in consecutive games. Since that gauntlet, Purdue has played against just two quality opponents, but it didn't play at the same level in either game. First, Purdue had to go to overtime to get a win at Nebraska on Dec. 10, and then, just a few days ago, Purdue lost at home to Rutgers by a single point. Purdue will no doubt play for high stakes late into the season, but its recent performances were a good reminder that this team (and any college team for that matter) is still vulnerable.

Ohio State has also won four games against quality opponents, although not quite the same names and not consecutively, but nonetheless, the Buckeyes have built a solid resume as conference season picks up steam. Ohio State mostly wins thanks to its offense, which is among the very best, currently ranked second-best in KenPom's adjusted efficiency standings. The Buckeyes have already been tested against several elite defensive teams, Texas Tech, Rutgers and Northwestern, and they collected wins against all three. Ohio State's defense isn't ranked as high as its offense, but it's still been performing at a high level in recent games. The Buckeyes have held opponents to under 62 points in each of its last three games, and have done so in eight of 13 total games played this season. 

All in all, these two teams measure up evenly with one another. Both are elite offensively. Both have several quality wins. Neither has a bad loss. Not much separates these two, although it might be worth noting that Ohio State appears to have a shooting advantage heading into this game. The Buckeyes are making 38 percent of shot attempts from behind the arc this season, the 37th-highest percentage among all D1 teams, while Purdue is making under 31 percent of its three-point shot attempts. In a game that's projected to be decided by a single possession, one three-point shot might be the difference. I'll take the home team in this matchup.

College Basketball Best Bet: Ohio St. -1.5

Oregon at Colorado

Oregon enters Thursday's game with an 8-6 record -- a lackluster mark that's fairly indicative of where the team stands through the first two months. Three of Oregon's losses came against some of the top teams in the country in Houston, Connecticut and UCLA. This is understandable, although it's worth noting that the Ducks lost to each team by nine-plus points -- not very competitive overall. While these losses aren't awful, Oregon also lost when hosting UC Irvine and Utah Valley, two teams that are respectable in their own right, but one would still expect Oregon to defend its home court against teams in lower conferences. This inconsistent play, especially at home, doesn't bode well for Oregon as it now has to travel to a high altitude and take on Colorado. 

The Buffaloes were reminded of the difficulty in winning a road conference game in their most recent trip to Berkeley. Colorado was riding a five-game winning streak and had just defeated a desperate Stanford team on the road, but it didn't matter. California came ready to play, and Colorado couldn't overcome an early deficit. While losing to California is not a good look, Colorado can still hang its hat on many other impressive performances earlier in the season, such as wins over Tennessee and Texas A&M. Colorado and Oregon have both played inconsistently this season, although up to this point, the Buffaloes arguably have a better resume and have flashed a higher ceiling in its three wins over quality opponents.

Looking at how these two teams match up against each other, they are somewhat similar in many ways, but they are at opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to turnovers. Oregon plays a bit too loose on offense, ranking No. 247 in offensive turnover rate, while Colorado's defense has been great at causing turnovers, ranking No. 117 in defensive turnover rate. The story is again positive for the Buffaloes on the other end of the court, with Colorado not giving the ball away much, ranking No. 132, and facing an Oregon defense that doesn't cause many turnovers, ranking No. 285. Considering this matchup advantage and the location of the game, I like the home team in this spot. I'll take Colorado given a short line.

College Basketball Best Bet: Colorado -3

Thursday College Basketball Best Bets:

Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Thursday:

• Rutgers -6
• Ohio St. -1.5
• Colorado -3

For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the College Basketball odds page on RotoWire.

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