This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Friday night is relatively quiet in the college hoops world, but luckily, we've still got a pivotal matchup tipping off in Ohio. Elsewhere, we have a Big East battle on the slate. Here are my predictions for these two intriguing games.
St. John's 
at Providence 
Believe it or not, Friday will mark the Red Storm's first true road game. Until now, St. John's has played all its games at home in NYC, plus three neutral-site games in the Bahamas during Feast Week. While it's hard to factor in how the Johnnies will perform in a hostile environment, they certainly know how to put on a show at home. The Red Storm defeated New Mexico and Kansas State earlier this year, two respectable programs, although neither counts as a quality win, per KenPom. Both of the Red Storm's losses came in the Bahamas, first losing to Baylor in double overtime before losing to Georgia by three points. It kept up with both teams, but of course, it's the 'W' that ultimately matters.
Providence, in contrast, already has five losses. The Friars lost all three games at the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament, although to be fair, they nearly stole a win in the first round against Oklahoma. The Friars had the ball with three seconds remaining, just enough time for a potential go-ahead three-point shot, but they missed. The Sooners eventually won the tournament and are still undefeated, so this kind of performance is encouraging, even though it was a loss. Following its rough losing streak in the Bahamas, the Friars returned home and played its best game of the season, a dominant 19-point win over BYU. In their most recent game, they lost by four points to St. Bonaventure at a neutral site, so perhaps they'll return home with the same fire that we saw against BYU.
The Friars have played well defensively, ranking 67th in efficiency, 18th in effective field goal percentage allowed, and 21st in two-point field goal percentage allowed. This is a stout team any way you look at it. They're also particularly effective on the glass, an important trait because St. John's ranks 10th in offensive rebounding percentage. Providence ranks 90th in defensive rebounding, so they should be able to limit the number of second-chance opportunities on Friday.
Offensively, the Friars have performed slightly above average in most categories, although, similar to their opponent, their best offensive ability is collecting boards. Providence ranks 58th in offensive rebounding percentage, noticeably higher than St. John's in the same category on the defensive side.
An important part of this pick is the health of superstar forward Bryce Hopkins. The senior was named to the preseason All-Big East First Team last fall, and he lived up to the billing before suffering a season-ending injury in January 2024. Hopkins recently returned on Dec. 3 for the game against BYU. Hopkins showed little, if any rust, scoring 16-plus points in all three games, including stuffing the box score in other categories. Hopkins played 36 minutes in Providence's win at DePaul, but then he missed the game against St. Bonaventure this past weekend due to knee irritation. The latest news indicates that he will be a game-time decision. If you believe head coach Kim English, Hopkins has a fair chance of playing. English responded to a question about Hopkins after missing the recent game: "Everything is good structurally with his knee. I just wanted to give him some rest and make sure he's okay."
The Johnnies are proving to be a tough team to beat, but as multiple teams have already demonstrated, they're not perfect. If Hopkins plays, he can take over a game and lead the Friars to victory. If Hopkins doesn't play, confidence drops, obviously, but this still appears to be a good opportunity for Providence to catch a conference foe off-guard on a Friday night. I'm taking the points with the home team in this matchup
College Basketball Best Bet: Providence +6
Dayton 
vs. Cincinnati
This is a tale of two teams. Do you prefer an offensive team over a defensive one? Or would you choose the battle-tested squad over the unproven?
Dayton is among the best-scoring teams in the nation, ranking 14th in offensive efficiency, but on Friday will have to go against a defense of equal caliber. Cincinnati ranks 10th in defensive efficiency, and much like the Flyers' offensive attack, the Bearcats' defense ranks near the top of the charts in many important categories. For example, Dayton ranks 31st in effective field goal percentage, but Cincinnati ranks sixth in the same defensive category. Similarly, the Flyers are proficient at getting to the charity stripe, ranking 49th in free-throw attempt rate, but Cincinnati ranks 14th in free-throw attempt rate allowed. For a tie-breaker, I would submit the resumes of each team. Dayton has gone through a gauntlet, ranking 93rd in strength of schedule, per KenPom, and has collected wins over Northwestern, Connecticut, and Marquette. The Flyers also fell by two points to North Carolina and five points to Iowa State, giving us a competitive team that doesn't back down from anyone. Dayton was tied with Iowa State with under a minute remaining, so it's not too far away from being undefeated.
Looking at the other end of the court, each team isn't nearly as sharp. Cincinnati ranks 43rd in offensive efficiency, facing a Dayton defense that ranks 74th in efficiency. The key for the Flyers is their ability to secure defensive boards, ranking 25th in rebounding percentage. One of Cincinnati's best traits is its aggressiveness on the offensive glass, so Dayton appears well-equipped to counter this strength. On paper, the Bearcats are well above average in several raw offensive categories, however, we cannot ignore that Cincinnati has had an easy schedule, ranking 317th in difficulty. It played two teams that rank in the top 60 of KenPom's overall efficiency standings, first losing by eight to Villanova before more recently beating Xavier by three points. Outside of these two games, the Bearcats beat up teams from the lower levels of D-1.
The saying 'defense wins championships' rings true in certain situations, however, I'm not buying it in this matchup. Dayton has already played multiple elite defensive teams, nearly beating the Cyclones in Maui and then recently taking down the Golden Eagles. Cincinnati won't make it easy, but I trust the more proven team with a better offensive track record. I'm taking the points with the Flyers.
Additionally, I'm also taking the under. Both teams prefer playing at a much slower pace, with Dayton ranking 306th in adjusted tempo and Cincinnati a little further up at 273rd. The other factor at play is the close proximity of the schools. This game might not have the same intensity that we see in the battle for Cincinnati every year, but I'd imagine this game means a tremendous amount to both schools. I'm not one for making decisions based on motivational angles, although in this case, both teams will likely be fired up. I'm betting we'll see a grinding defensive game with a low score.
College Basketball Best Bet: Dayton +3.5 and Under 139
Friday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Friday:
- Providence +6
- Dayton +3.5
- Dayton vs. Cincinnati - Under 139
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
