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Opportunity-Neutral Fantasy Football Rankings

I'm reprising this exercise from last year because I think it's useful to identify potential breakouts and upside plays.

There are essentially four variables that determine a player's value: (1) Health; (2) Skills; (3) Team Context; and (4) Role. Of the four, (1) and (4) are most subject to dramatic change, but health is usually both unpredictable and obvious, so let's set that aside for the moment and focus on role.

A player's role determines the quantity of his opportunities (team context determines quality), and quantity of opportunity is a huge factor in value. Once you get beyond the league's elite players, projecting roles becomes difficult, and this is even before we take into account frequent role changes due to other players' injuries. For that reason, it's good to have an idea of who the players are and where they are independent of their immediate roles. To that end, I've ranked the top-30 QB, RB, WR and TE irrespective of roles, i.e., assuming everyone had an equal number of basic opportunities. For QBs, that's 550 passing attempts, for RBs, that's 250 carries, for WRs and TEs, that's 130 targets:

Here's how I'd rank them:

RankQBTeamRBTeamWRTeamTETeam
1Aaron RodgersGBLe'Veon BellPITDez BryantDALRob GronkowskiNE
2Russell WilsonSEAJamaal CharlesKCOdell BeckhamNYGJimmy GrahamNO
3Andrew LuckINDAdrian PetersonMINJulio JonesATLTravis KelceKC
4Cam NewtonCARDeMarco MurrayPHIDemaryius ThomasDENDwayne AllenIND
5Tony RomoDALArian FosterHOUT.Y. HiltonINDOwen DanielsDEN
6Colin KaepernickSFEddie LacyGBCalvin JohnsonDETVernon DavisSF
7Peyton ManningDENJoseph RandleDALDeSean JacksonWASZach ErtzPHI
8Tom BradyNEC.J. AndersonDENA.J. GreenCINGreg OlsenCAR
9Ben RoethlisbergerPITC.J. SpillerNORandall CobbGBCoby FleenerIND
10Eli ManningNYGLamar MillerMIAAntonio BrownPITJordan CameronMIA
11Matt RyanATLTodd GurleySTLJordan MatthewsPHIAntonio GatesSD
12Ryan TannehillMIAJustin ForsettBALMartavus BryantPITMartellus BennettCHI
13Sam BradfordPHIMatt ForteCHIDavante AdamsGBJordan ReedWAS
14Teddy BridgewaterMINMarshawn LynchSEAMichael FloydAZLaDarius GreenSD
15Philip RiversSDGiovani BernardCINMike EvansTBJulius ThomasJAC
16Drew BreesNORyan MathewsPHIBrandin CooksNOTyler EifertCIN
17Michael VickPITRonnie HillmanDENEmmanuel SandersDENJosh HillNO
18Marcus MariotaTENJeremy HillCINGolden TateDETRichard RodgersGB
19Blake BortlesJACRashad JenningsNYGKeenan AllenSDJason WittenDAL
20Tyrod TaylorBUFLatavius MurrayOAKJohn BrownAZEric EbronDET
21Andy DaltonCINDan HerronINDCody LatimerDENA.Sefarian-JenkinsTB
22Mark SanchezPHIFrank GoreINDAlshon JefferyCHIDelanie WalkerTEN
23Geno SmithNYJDarren McFaddenDALDonte MoncriefINDJared CookSTL
24Terrelle PryorCLEAmeer AbdullahDETPhilip DorsettINDKyle RudolphMIN
25Carson PalmerARZMark IngramNODeVante ParkerMIAJ.J. WattHOU
26Matthew StaffordDETLance DunbarDALEric DeckerNYJHeath MillerPIT
27Jay CutlerCHIAndre EllingtonARZSammy WatkinsBUFMychal RiveraOAK
28Alex SmithKCMelvin GordonSDDeAndre HopkinsHOUBrett CelekPHI
29Joe FlaccoBALJonathan StewartCARNelson AgholorPHICharles ClayBUF
30Kirk CousinsWASTevin ColemanATLAllen RobinsonJACLarry DonnellNYG

There are some issues with this framework (Would Lance Dunbar really get 250 carries even if every other RB on the Cowboys dropped dead? And why then did I leave off Shane Vereen?), but for the most part it's a list of players with the most upside, opportunity being equal. That favors running QBs, efficient-passing QBs and QBs with good weapons. RBs who catch passes, are suited to goal-line work and play in good offenses get boosted, as do WRs with good size/speed profiles and good quarterbacks.

It also shows which top players are simply a product of their roles and who are in danger of losing significant value should their opportunities shrink even moderately. Matthew Stafford is a volume guy, as are Larry Fitzgerald, LeSean McCoy and, I presume, Amari Cooper . Consequently, they're absent from these lists.