I'm reprising this exercise from last year because I think it's useful to identify potential breakouts and upside plays.
There are essentially four variables that determine a player's value: (1) Health; (2) Skills; (3) Team Context; and (4) Role. Of the four, (1) and (4) are most subject to dramatic change, but health is usually both unpredictable and obvious, so let's set that aside for the moment and focus on role.
A player's role determines the quantity of his opportunities (team context determines quality), and quantity of opportunity is a huge factor in value. Once you get beyond the league's elite players, projecting roles becomes difficult, and this is even before we take into account frequent role changes due to other players' injuries. For that reason, it's good to have an idea of who the players are and where they are independent of their immediate roles. To that end, I've ranked the top-30 QB, RB, WR and TE irrespective of roles, i.e., assuming everyone had an equal number of basic opportunities. For QBs, that's 550 passing attempts, for RBs, that's 250 carries, for WRs and TEs, that's 130 targets:
Here's how I'd rank them:
Rank | QB | Team | RB | Team | WR | Team | TE | Team |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Aaron Rodgers | GB | Le'Veon Bell | PIT | Dez Bryant | DAL | Rob Gronkowski | NE |
2 | Russell Wilson | SEA | Jamaal Charles | KC | Odell Beckham | NYG | Jimmy Graham | NO |
3 | Andrew Luck | IND | Adrian Peterson | MIN | Julio Jones | ATL | Travis Kelce | KC |
4 | Cam Newton | CAR | DeMarco Murray | PHI | Demaryius Thomas | DEN | Dwayne Allen | IND |
5 | Tony Romo | DAL | Arian Foster | HOU | T.Y. Hilton | IND | Owen Daniels | DEN |
6 | Colin Kaepernick | SF | Eddie Lacy | GB | Calvin Johnson | DET | Vernon Davis | SF |
7 | Peyton Manning | DEN | Joseph Randle | DAL | DeSean Jackson | WAS | Zach Ertz | PHI |
8 | Tom Brady | NE | C.J. Anderson | DEN | A.J. Green | CIN | Greg Olsen | CAR |
9 | Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | C.J. Spiller | NO | Randall Cobb | GB | Coby Fleener | IND |
10 | Eli Manning | NYG | Lamar Miller | MIA | Antonio Brown | PIT | Jordan Cameron | MIA |
11 | Matt Ryan | ATL | Todd Gurley | STL | Jordan Matthews | PHI | Antonio Gates | SD |
12 | Ryan Tannehill | MIA | Justin Forsett | BAL | Martavus Bryant | PIT | Martellus Bennett | CHI |
13 | Sam Bradford | PHI | Matt Forte | CHI | Davante Adams | GB | Jordan Reed | WAS |
14 | Teddy Bridgewater | MIN | Marshawn Lynch | SEA | Michael Floyd | AZ | LaDarius Green | SD |
15 | Philip Rivers | SD | Giovani Bernard | CIN | Mike Evans | TB | Julius Thomas | JAC |
16 | Drew Brees | NO | Ryan Mathews | PHI | Brandin Cooks | NO | Tyler Eifert | CIN |
17 | Michael Vick | PIT | Ronnie Hillman | DEN | Emmanuel Sanders | DEN | Josh Hill | NO |
18 | Marcus Mariota | TEN | Jeremy Hill | CIN | Golden Tate | DET | Richard Rodgers | GB |
19 | Blake Bortles | JAC | Rashad Jennings | NYG | Keenan Allen | SD | Jason Witten | DAL |
20 | Tyrod Taylor | BUF | Latavius Murray | OAK | John Brown | AZ | Eric Ebron | DET |
21 | Andy Dalton | CIN | Dan Herron | IND | Cody Latimer | DEN | A.Sefarian-Jenkins | TB |
22 | Mark Sanchez | PHI | Frank Gore | IND | Alshon Jeffery | CHI | Delanie Walker | TEN |
23 | Geno Smith | NYJ | Darren McFadden | DAL | Donte Moncrief | IND | Jared Cook | STL |
24 | Terrelle Pryor | CLE | Ameer Abdullah | DET | Philip Dorsett | IND | Kyle Rudolph | MIN |
25 | Carson Palmer | ARZ | Mark Ingram | NO | DeVante Parker | MIA | J.J. Watt | HOU |
26 | Matthew Stafford | DET | Lance Dunbar | DAL | Eric Decker | NYJ | Heath Miller | PIT |
27 | Jay Cutler | CHI | Andre Ellington | ARZ | Sammy Watkins | BUF | Mychal Rivera | OAK |
28 | Alex Smith | KC | Melvin Gordon | SD | DeAndre Hopkins | HOU | Brett Celek | PHI |
29 | Joe Flacco | BAL | Jonathan Stewart | CAR | Nelson Agholor | PHI | Charles Clay | BUF |
30 | Kirk Cousins | WAS | Tevin Coleman | ATL | Allen Robinson | JAC | Larry Donnell | NYG |
There are some issues with this framework (Would Lance Dunbar really get 250 carries even if every other RB on the Cowboys dropped dead? And why then did I leave off Shane Vereen?), but for the most part it's a list of players with the most upside, opportunity being equal. That favors running QBs, efficient-passing QBs and QBs with good weapons. RBs who catch passes, are suited to goal-line work and play in good offenses get boosted, as do WRs with good size/speed profiles and good quarterbacks.
It also shows which top players are simply a product of their roles and who are in danger of losing significant value should their opportunities shrink even moderately. Matthew Stafford is a volume guy, as are Larry Fitzgerald, LeSean McCoy and, I presume, Amari Cooper . Consequently, they're absent from these lists.