On Friday we took a look at ADP trends for receivers, but over the weekend Packers star wide out Jordy Nelson suffered a torn ACL, ending his season. Nelson leaves behind 151 targets from a year ago, fourth most in the league. Before examining running backs, I was curious to see how this news has affected the most obvious beneficiary, Davante Adams.
Adams had an ADP of about 95 last week, and now just 4 days later (two days since Nelson's injury), that has jumped to 49 overall. At WR25, the second-year man is slotted between fellow pass-catchers Sammy Watkins and Allen Robinson. Adams had a high pick of 37 overall in one draft, but his low was 99, which means the data still hasn't caught up with his ascent. It will be interesting to see where Adams settles in, but you will most likely need to spend a fourth round pick in 12-teams leagues to land him and he could climb into the late-third.
Now, on to running backs. Below are the top-20 (or so) risers and fallers in National Fantasy Football Championship drafts. NFFC data is always PPR.
Risers
| Player | Two Weeks Ago | Current ADP | Change |
| Alfred Blue (RB, Hou) | 160.2 | 98.4 | 61.8 |
| Chris Ivory (RB, NYJ) | 128.4 | 73.1 | 55.3 |
| Jonas Gray (RB, NE) | 214.3 | 160.0 | 54.3 |
| Joseph Randle (RB, Dal) | 56.3 | 3.4 | 52.8 |
| Chris Polk (RB, Hou) | -- | 196.3 | 43.7 |
| Denard Robinson (RB, Jax) | 197.4 | 155.9 | 41.5 |
| Andre Williams (RB, NYG) | 173.4 | 139.9 | 33.5 |
| Pierre Thomas (RB, FA) | -- | 209.4 | 30.6 |
| Khiry Robinson (RB, NO) | 195.6 | 165.1 | 30.5 |
| Matt Jones (RB, Was) | 173.5 | 144.4 | 29.1 |
| Ronnie Hillman (RB, Den) | 186.8 | 157.9 | 28.9 |
| Danny Woodhead (RB, SD) | 122.1 | 96.4 | 25.6 |
| Ameer Abdullah (RB, Det) | 71.5 | 46.0 | 25.5 |
| Doug Martin (RB, TB) | 92.4 | 69.0 | 23.4 |
| Lance Dunbar (RB, Dal) | 199.9 | 178.4 | 21.5 |
| Lorenzo Taliaferro (RB, Bal) | 186.5 | 168.4 | 18.1 |
| Terrance West (RB, Cle) | 187.9 | 170.6 | 17.3 |
| David Cobb (RB, Ten) | 124.6 | 108.0 | 16.6 |
| Karlos Williams (RB, Buf) | -- | 226.2 | 13.8 |
| Devonta Freeman (RB, Atl) | 103.6 | 92.0 | 11.6 |
| Lamar Miller (RB, Mia) | 43.7 | 32.2 | 11.5 |
| Latavius Murray (RB, Oak) | 45.1 | 34.9 | 10.2 |
The Houston backfield is all over this list. Even Pierre Thomas, who still doesn't have a contract with the Texans, makes an appearance. Alfred Blue (+61.8 change in ADP) is the favorite to get most of the early-down work while Arian Foster is out, but the rest of the backfield is unsettled. It seems the fantasy community is more bullish on Chris Polk (196.3 ADP, +43.7) than Johnathan Grimes (undrafted), even though the latter is entering exhibition games first.
Chris Ivory has the second highest change in ADP, getting a 55.3 pick bump since making it clear is he is the lead back in New York. A similar story for Doug Martin (+23.4) in Tampa. Joseph Randle (+52.8), Denard Robinson (+41.5) and Devonta Freeman (+11.6) are benefiting from injuries to their competition, although Freeman has been out of action too. Ameer Abdullah (+25.5) has entered the top-50 overall (46.0) after a dynamite camp and is right on the heels of Melvin Gordon (44.9) to be the first rookie RB off the board. More on Gordon Below.
Fallers
| Player | Two Weeks Ago | Current ADP | Change |
| Melvin Gordon (RB, SD) | 34.8 | 44.9 | -10.1 |
| T.J. Yeldon (RB, Jax) | 53.8 | 66.0 | -12.2 |
| Theo Riddick (RB, Det) | 175.3 | 187.7 | -12.4 |
| C.J. Spiller (RB, NO) | 42.5 | 55.2 | -12.7 |
| Dan Herron (RB, Ind) | 149.9 | 165.1 | -15.2 |
| James Starks (RB, GB) | 151.1 | 166.9 | -15.8 |
| Matt Asiata (RB, Min) | 223.6 | -- | -16.4 |
| Zac Stacy (RB, NYJ) | 214.9 | -- | -25.1 |
| Robert Turbin (RB, Sea) | 212.6 | -- | -27.4 |
| Tevin Coleman (RB, Atl) | 69.4 | 98.1 | -28.7 |
| Mike Davis (RB, SF) | 210.9 | -- | -29.1 |
| James White (RB, NE) | 167.5 | 197.0 | -29.5 |
| Trent Richardson (RB, Oak) | 210.1 | -- | -29.9 |
| Travaris Cadet (RB, NE) | 208.8 | -- | -31.2 |
| Stevan Ridley (RB, NYJ) | 208.0 | -- | -32.0 |
| Montee Ball (RB, Den) | 133.7 | 170.0 | -36.3 |
| Charles Sims (RB, TB) | 103.1 | 139.7 | -36.6 |
| Ray Rice (RB, Bal) | 194.7 | -- | -45.3 |
| Arian Foster (RB, Hou) | 18.7 | 72.7 | -54.0 |
| Jay Ajayi (RB, Mia) | 118.1 | 173.0 | -54.9 |
| Christine Michael (RB, Sea) | 174.7 | -- | -65.3 |
| Javorius Allen (RB, Bal) | 134.6 | -- | -105.4 |
Gordon (-10.1) has been hit with a double-whammy of injury and ineffectiveness in his two pre-season games. In the opener, Gordon looked indecisive and was unable to flash that big-play burst he was known for in college. He was held out of the second game due to a minor ankle tweak. Although, you get the feeling it will take just one eye-popping run for Gordon to regain his third round ADP. Some third down proficiency wouldn't hurt, either.
Javorius "Buck" Allen has been well behind Justin Forsett and Lorenzo Taliaferro all camp long in Baltimore. There wasn't much room for Allen with Forsett getting the bulk of work, including passing downs, and "Zo" handling the big-back stuff. Allen, who is currently not getting drafted in most leagues, might see an uptick with Taliaferro's MCL sprain putting the start of his season in doubt.
Most of the rest of these fallers can fit into two categories -- hurt or buried. Still two weeks for these guys to show something. We will check back.