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Stopa Law Firm $10K League

Most fantasy auctions are strange, and this is even true in formats like 12-team AL-only LABR in baseball where the historical values for each tier and position are well established. In football, values are less so, and when you add quirks like a "super-flex" (QB eligible), half-PPR  and two starting tight ends, you're asking for chaos. Throw in a $10 K prize and some ill-timed tech glitches, and you're looking at straight-up anarchy even in a 12-team league with relatively standard scoring.

Because this was largely foreseeable - aside from the tech glitches - my strategy was to generate a sound list of dollar values for this format based on the RotoWire season-long projections. I generated the values with a VBD formula which is imperfect, but I mitigated that somewhat by estimating replacement value as the best player on waivers at each position rather than using the worst starters. It's still an estimate but one that better normalizes market value across positions because it prices in the opportunity cost of spending on one position at the expense of another. I also looked at least year's final stats and ran them through the same formula to discover what everyone earned in this format with a $200 budget. It turns out Jamaal Charles earned something like $68 and Peyton Manning wasn't far behind.

Armed with this rough idea of what players were really worth, I put each dollar value in the spread sheet next to my player list and left one cell open to fill in the actual prices they were fetching. That way, I'd have a quick idea of whether players were too expensive early and I should save, or too cheap, and I should spend. It turned out players were way too expensive:

WRCOST$TECOST$RBCOST$QBCOST$
Calvin Johnson4834.38Jimmy Graham4129.5LeSean McCoy5442.68Peyton Manning4543.19
Demaryius Thomas4931.71Rob Gronkowski3119.48Jamaal Charles5241.93Aaron Rodgers4940.32
Dez Bryant4428.78Julius Thomas3517.96Matt Forte4638.49Drew Brees4738.88
A.J. Green4428.01Jordan Cameron1315.42Eddie Lacy5034.35Nick Foles3334.58
Julio Jones4327.8Jason Witten813.8Adrian Peterson4833.3Andrew Luck3533.92
Brandon Marshall4023.84Greg Olsen812.87DeMarco Murray3329.55Cam Newton2530.85
Jordy Nelson3922.46Vernon Davis1012.67Giovani Bernard3528.67Robert Griffin2730.82
Alshon Jeffery3422.3Dennis Pitta1211.67Montee Ball4027.85Colin Kaepernick2529.33
Keenan Allen2921.99Jordan Reed910.74Zac Stacy2125.98Matthew Stafford3129.28
Victor Cruz1721.15Zach Ertz910.48Le'Veon Bell2925.87Tom Brady2929.12
Antonio Brown3620.2Martellus Bennett27.01Doug Martin2425.36Matt Ryan2728.86
Vincent Jackson1519.86Kyle Rudolph106.01Marshawn Lynch3524.2Russell Wilson2927.98
Randall Cobb2418.86Ladarius Green25.78Arian Foster2724.13Jay Cutler2224.11
Andre Johnson1818.45Charles Clay35.27C.J. Spiller2623.74Philip Rivers2023.91
Pierre Garcon1017.88Tyler Eifert2.18Alfred Morris2723.72Alex Smith1823.7
Michael Floyd1817.55Heath Miller22.06Andre Ellington3123.2Tony Romo2823.66
Larry Fitzgerald1515.72Garrett Graham0.82Shane Vereen2020.86Ben Roethlisberger2423.29
Percy Harvin1315.49Delanie Walker0.41Reggie Bush1420.63Andy Dalton1720.98
T.Y. Hilton814.83Dwayne Allen0.28Ryan Mathews1920.48EJ Manuel20.92
Michael Crabtree2114.05Antonio GatesJoique Bell1020.43Johnny Manziel1420.56
DeSean Jackson1213.85Travis Kelce2Chris Johnson620.04Eli Manning1018.67
Cordarrelle Patterson1513.36Eric EbronBishop Sankey2019.91Ryan Tannehill1118.64
Roddy White1413.28Jared CookToby Gerhart1619.53Joe Flacco616.07
Torrey Smith1113.1Richard RodgersRashad Jennings1717.01Carson Palmer1310.85
Wes Welker1312.82Scott ChandlerBen Tate16.75Jake Locker10.46
Jeremy Maclin1112.51Levine ToiloloRay Rice515.72Sam Bradford85.77
Marques Colston511.61Coby FleenerMaurice Jones-Drew14.88Geno Smith1.63
Mike Wallace410.69Marcedes LewisTrent Richardson914.85Josh McCown9
Eric Decker510.41Adrien RobinsonPierre Thomas14.49Ryan Fitzpatrick
Josh Gordon149.43Jermaine GreshamDarren Sproles11.51Matt Schaub
Kendall Wright88.61Jeff CumberlandDanny Woodhead10.46Teddy Bridgewater
Terrance Williams77.89Timothy WrightFrank Gore410.3Blake Bortles
Rueben Randle47.25Rob HouslerStevan Ridley310.07Michael Vick
Mike Evans6.91Brandon MyersSteven Jackson8.5Chad Henne
Sammy Watkins56.81Brandon PettigrewLamar Miller118.38Matt Cassel
Cecil Shorts6.42Andrew QuarlessDeAngelo Williams7.58
Golden Tate6.12Austin Seferian-JenkinsMark Ingram6.6
Julian Edelman56.01Brent CelekTerrance West56.32
Riley Cooper5.6John CarlsonDarren McFadden5.4
Dwayne Bowe5.11Owen DanielsCarlos Hyde4.62
Brandin Cooks164.62Jermichael FinleyKnowshon Moreno4.52
Kenny Stills4.11Zach MillerDevonta Freeman44.39
Marqise Lee3.96Jace AmaroDonald Brown4.03
Aaron Dobson3.83David AusberryJonathan Stewart3.21
Emmanuel Sanders3.65Ryan GriffinAndre Williams2.39
DeAndre Hopkins3.62Joseph FauriaAhmad Bradshaw2.29
Tavon Austin3.57Troy NiklasBernard Pierce1.62
Kelvin Benjamin3.55Gavin EscobarKnile Davis1.13
Brian Hartline3.52Tony MoeakiRonnie Hillman
Hakeem Nicks3.52Mychal RiveraChristine Michael
Jordan Matthews3.11Anthony FasanoChris Ivory
Danny Amendola22.85Lance KendricksFred Jackson
Anquan Boldin2.7Brandon WilliamsShonn Greene
Doug Baldwin2.16Jim DrayJames White
Justin Hunter41.8Ed DicksonJacquizz Rodgers
Jermaine Kearse1.8Logan PaulsenRoy Helu
Greg Jennings1.13Brandon BostickStepfan Taylor
Reggie Wayne0.41Clay HarborLance Dunbar
Kenny Britt0.26Ben WatsonRobert Turbin

When I did this last year, the running backs and receivers were vastly overpriced, but the quarterbacks came super cheap. As I had quarterbacks priced pretty highly in this super-flex league, I jumped on two "values" early last year (Aaron Rodgers and Tony Romo), only to see others get even better values in the end game. This year, while the high-end RBs and WRs were still very expensive, so were the QBs and TEs. That meant something had to give, and that thing was the entire back end of the auction.

Accordingly, I needed to overspend a little to ensure I had *some* high-end players (you don't want to have a team full of great values, no stars and $50 left over), so I snagged Julio Jones and RGIII at what I thought were fair prices, given the going rate, overpaid for Julius Thomas (mildly regret that) and saved like crazy for huge mid and end-game bargains. Here's my squad:

PosPlayerCOST$
QBRobert Griffin2730.82
RBZac Stacy21$25.98
RBTrent Richardson914.85
WRJulio Jones4327.8
WRPierre Garcon1017.88
WRPercy Harvin1315.49
TEJulius Thomas3517.96
TEZach Ertz910.48
FLEXMarques Colston511.61
QBFLEXRyan Tannehill1118.64
BCarlos Hyde54.62
BAndre Williams22.39
BEJ Manuel220.92
BRay Rice515.72
BKelvin Benjamin13.55
BAhmad Bradshaw12.29
BKenny Stills14.11
Total200$245.11

At first glance, the prices on Jones and especially Thomas look insane, but it would have been foolish to get shut out of the top tier entirely when you could buy a couple and still have enough for a $10 Garcon and a $5 Colston late. Also, the dollar values are based solely on projected stats, and I'd argue players like Carlos Hyde - who might not see much work for a few weeks but who could be a monster if Frank Gore wears down - are on the low end. High-upside players with uncertain roles are probably worth more than that for which we can responsibly project them.

It's also worth noting how high EJ Manuel's "value" is, and that's based on our projection which gives him a full season and expects some rushing stats out of him. When the replacement level for QBs is incredibly low, a 170-yard, 1 TD passing day with 40 rushing yards and an occasional rushing TD in your QB flex has a significant impact. Of course, the dollar values are also tied to the accuracy of the projections, and were Manuel to prove unfit as an NFL starter, his projected 3545 passing yards and 466 rushing yards won't redeem him. The dollar values therefore are only a very rough guideline and one that has to be weighed against what's going on in the auction itself. In fact, they're most valuable simply as a gauge for whether and to what extent there will be bargains late.

Finally you'll notice I don't have a kicker or defense. I will pick those up eventually, but felt it was better to stock up on reserve WR/RB while injuries and job battles shake out for another couple weeks.

The Stopa Law Firm League is sponsored by RotoWire Staff Writer Mark Stopa whose Florida-based legal practice helps homeowners fight foreclosures by large banks. For more info, click here.