On Wednesday July 15, I participated in my first $100K grand-prize NFFC RotoWire Online Championship draft. It's the typical NFFC format: 1 QB, 2 RB, 3WR, 1 FLEX, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 D and 10 reserves. PPR scoring, six points per TD pass, no trades.
The NFFC also has third-round reversal whereby the team with the No. 1 pick, picks last in both the second and third rounds, but first in the fourth, i.e., it snakes 1-12, 12-1, 12-1, 1-12 over the first four rounds. Usually, this levels the playing field as the talent drops off most steeply in the first round, so the late draft spots are compensated by having early picks in both Rounds 2 and 3. But in 2015, where the top-10 picks are roughly equal, the opposite happens. Those in late position are already getting a roughly equal first-round pick and a better second-round one. With third-round reversal, they get a better third-round one too.
So how did I find myself with the first pick this year? I forgot* to go in and manually set my draft-order preferences. Because the default order is 1-12, I technically got my "first choice" with No. 1.
After the initial annoyance at having the worst draft slot wore off, I contemplated which player I'd actually take. I considered Antonio Brown (the safest PPR pick), Eddie Lacy (safest RB), Jamaal Charles (more PPR upside than Lacy, but more risk), Odell Beckham (monstrous upside, especially in PPR) and Dez Bryant. When I mentioned taking Beckham on the radio, NFFC veteran and RotoWire columnist Vlad Sedler direct messaged me the following on Twitter:
You may be going zeroRB if you don't like RB with first pick. RB options at 24 and 36 are meh.
I thought about it, and he was probably right. I didn't feel like doing the zero RB strategy for this draft, so I narrowed my choice down to Lacy and Charles. Lacy was safer, but a pretty low-end No. 1 overall pick in PPR, especially when I was getting the last picks in Rounds 2 and 3, and Charles had the upside, but I have a bad vibe about him this year, health-wise. Because the draft took place not long after I got home from the RotoWire Vegas trip, I didn't have time to print out any cheat sheets or get set up. But it was July 15, before training camp even opened, so I could still draft off of the RotoWire magazine list. I had used the standard list for the Stopa League in Vegas, but hadn't looked at the PPR one since I put it together more than a month ago. I assumed Charles would top it, and I'd probably go in that direction, vibe notwithstanding.
When I opened the magazine, however, I was surprised to see No. 1 was Le'Veon Bell, three-game suspension and all. That meant my 13-game projections for him gave him more total fantasy points than Charles, and that was not including three games of whoever else I might sub in while Bell served his time. Moreover, in a 12-team format, replacement value was reasonably high, i.e., I could find someone serviceable to fill in, and it need not necessarily be scrubby backup DeAngelo Williams. Finally, there's some chance Bell's suspension gets reduced in which case he's the best PPR back by a wide margin. By the time the draft started, my pick was Bell, and it was an easy call.
I had to wait 23 picks for Round 2, and while I almost never take a QB early, I was willing to take Andrew Luck had he dropped to me. I missed Luck by one pick, but got Mike Evans, the last of my second-tier receivers and was fine with it. But third-round reversal cost me in Round 3 when I missed Melvin Gordon by one pick and felt stuck. I took Travis Kelce and Golden Tate instead, but those were weak picks that early. I could have taken Lamar Miller, C.J. Spiller and/or Sammy Watkins, but I wouldn't have felt much better about them, either.
Given my underwhelming 3/4 turn, Bell's probable absence for three games and the high level of competition in the league, I knew I had to swing for the fences the rest of the way. To that end I took Todd Gurley and T.J. Yeldon at the 5/6 turn. If Gurley's back to full strength by October 1, I could have two top-five backs for most of the season.
After drafting two backs, I was thin at receiver and still weak at running back for at least three weeks. So I took Rashad Jennings and Torrey Smith at the 7/8 turn and four receivers in a row after that. But just when I felt I had enough balance there, I missed out on the last of the good quarterbacks and settled for Colin Kaepernick who should throw more and Andy Dalton who has all his receivers back.
Here's the entire grid:
* When Greg Ambrosius asked me to do the league, it was Monday July 6, two days after I returned from my vacation to Europe, and I was badly jet-lagged. Draft preferences lock one week before the draft, i.e., on July 9th, and it never occurred to me between July 6 and 8 to do anything.