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Fantasy Football ADP: Standard vs. PPR – Wide Receivers

Earlier this week we examined running backs. Today we compare the average draft position (ADP) of wide receivers and how they differ in standard and point per reception (PPR) formats.

The standard ADP's come from Yahoo and PPR data is from NFFC, which is always PPR-only. The table below shows wide receivers drafted among the top-150 overall, sorted by those favored in PPR leagues.

PlayerSTPPRDIFF
Emmanuel Sanders (Den)103.166.736.4
Mike Wallace (Mia)93.960.133.8
Sammy Watkins (Buf)108.579.628.9
Eric Decker (NYJ)96.374.721.6
Dwayne Bowe (KC)116.795.321.4
Tavon Austin (StL)130.1110.020.1
Danny Amendola (NE)126.9109.817.1
Kenny Stills (NO)129.7112.717.0
Kendall Wright (Ten)76.960.016.9
Julian Edelman (NE)66.750.416.3
Golden Tate (Det)95.080.114.9
Reggie Wayne (Ind)99.187.311.8
Cecil Shorts III (Jax)109.698.111.5
Pierre Garcon (Was)40.028.511.5
DeAndre Hopkins (Hou)127.1116.310.8
Jeremy Maclin (Phi)68.961.37.6
Antonio Brown (Pit)26.218.87.4
Julio Jones (Atl)19.912.77.2
Mike Evans (TB)109.4102.86.6
Randall Cobb (GB)31.525.06.5
Riley Cooper (Phi)110.8105.35.5
Marques Colston (NO)77.372.15.2
Jarrett Boykin (GB)127.7122.84.9
Jordy Nelson (GB)23.718.94.8
Demaryius Thomas (Den)10.77.03.7
Michael Crabtree (SF)46.242.63.6
Michael Floyd (Ari)53.449.83.6
T.Y. Hilton (Ind)54.150.73.4
Dez Bryant (Dal)12.39.03.3
A.J. Green (Cin)13.19.93.2
Terrance Williams (Dal)85.882.83.0
Brandin Cooks (NO)112.3109.42.9
Anquan Boldin (SF)111.6108.92.7
Hakeem Nicks (Ind)120.5118.12.4
Rueben Randle (NYG)118.0115.62.4
Greg Jennings (Min)129.0126.72.3
Andre Johnson (Hou)40.038.31.7
Brandon Marshall (Chi)15.313.91.4
Calvin Johnson (Det)6.34.91.4
Alshon Jeffery (Chi)21.620.31.3
Aaron Dobson (NE)127.0127.3-0.3
Roddy White (Atl)43.343.9-0.6
Larry Fitzgerald (Ari)35.836.5-0.7
Torrey Smith (Bal)59.861.2-1.4
Vincent Jackson (TB)33.935.6-1.7
Victor Cruz (NYG)36.638.4-1.8
Percy Harvin (Sea)44.046.6-2.6
Marvin Jones (Cin)114.1118.1-4.0
Wes Welker (Den)37.942.8-4.9
Keenan Allen (SD)29.634.6-5.0
Brian Hartline (Mia)130.7136.1-5.4
DeSean Jackson (Was)46.051.6-5.6
Cordarrelle Patterson (Min)45.152.4-7.3
James Jones (Oak)128.8143.4-14.6
Steve Smith Sr. (Bal)126.8145.6-18.8
Justin Hunter (Ten)125.6145.7-20.1
Josh Gordon (Cle)120.0141.4-21.4
Markus Wheaton (Pit)127.5150.8-23.3

The first thing we notice is the wide receiver position as a whole, not surprisingly, gets a bump in PPR drafts. On average the top-50 receivers are going 6.5 picks higher.

Favored in PPR Leagues

Emmanuel Sanders, DEN (+36.4)
Sanders moving from Pittsburgh to Denver has fantasy drafters excited about the volume of targets he may garner from Peyton Manning. Eric Decker and his 87 catches for 1,288 yards and 11 touchdowns have moved on to New York. The 5-foot-11 Sanders may not be the redzone threat Decker was, but he is primed to replace a chunk of that production.

Mike Wallace, MIA (+33.8) and Sammy Watkins, BUF (28.9)
These are two names curiously high on the list. Wallace is known as a big play specialist rather than a volume pass catcher, so it may be more of a function of him being undervalued in Yahoo leagues (or overvalued in NFFC) than his PPR value. Nobody knows how Watkins will be used in Buffalo's offense, but he did catch 101 balls (45% screen passes) at Clemson in 2013. The playmaker could see an uncommon amount of targets for a rookie, but the smart move is to manage expectations.

Tavon Austin, STL (+20.1)
I wrote about Austin last week as being among the top second-year breakout candidates. As a rookie, he played only about half of the team's snaps. His usage should increase dramatically in year two as he is now running with the ones and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer has plans to get the ball in his hands.

Danny Amendola, NE (+17.1) and Julian Edelman, NE (+16.3)
Amendola  and Edelman are listed as the starters in the high volume New England offense. For Amendola, the issue has always been staying healthy, as he has played 16 games only once his career. In 2013, Edelman found himself in Wes Welker's old role, finishing the year with 105 receptions. Neither player is a huge deep threat or a great redzone target, but both are adept at getting open underneath. If Amendola and tight end Rob Gronkowski stay on the field in 2014, Edelman's targets are sure to drop. That's a big if.

Favored in Standard Leagues

Wes Welker, DEN (-4.9)
Odd to see Welker, who has annually been a boon for PPR-leaguers, being somewhat marginalized in the format. Still, a 42.8 ADP is not bad for a guy who caught 73 passes for 778 yards last season. 2013 was almost bizzaro Welker in that his targets were way down (fewest since 2006), but he scored a career-high 10 touchdowns. There's an opportunity for the veteran to be more involved in Denver's offense with Eric Decker gone. Pay close attention to how he and Emmanuel Sanders are utilized throughout the preseason.

DeSean Jackson, WAS (-5.6)
Jackson's 82 catches were an outlier last season. He should continue to be a big-play artist, but will almost certainly have fewer targets than teammate Pierre Garcon (who is +11.5 in PPR drafts).

Josh Gordon, CLE (-21.4)
Gordon is all over the place, so this data is skewed by him going undrafted at times and as high as the fifth round in other drafts. Things will stabilize for the talented yet troubled receiver after his suspension is announced by the league. At which point you will probably read about him in upcoming riser/faller ADP articles.

Markus Wheaton, PIT (-23.3)
It's interesting that Wheaton is going 23.3 picks lower in PPR leagues while the player he's replacing in Pittsburgh, Emmanuel Sanders, has the most favored disparity in the format. The second-year speedster is a downfield threat that is hoping to replace the 65.5 receptions and roughly 800 yards Sanders and Mike Williams averaged as X-receivers for the Steelers in 2012-2013.