My nod to Alfred Blue in Saturday's Training Camp Notes reminded me that I hadn't yet prepared my initial list of deep sleepers for the season. The long weekend seems like the perfect time to rectify that oversight.
If you play in leagues of any depth, as I tend to, having a ready list of end-game darts to throw is absolutely crucial. You need to pan for upside gold with your late picks rather than wasting them on mediocre place-fillers, because hitting on even one or two of those darts can be the difference between a solid fantasy season and a championship one.
From a strategic perspective, I lean towards a WR-heavy approach with my early picks and auction dollars, which means I need to look past the obvious starters at running back for value. In addition, it's becoming increasingly easy, from a volume perspective, to find late-round value at running back as opposed to wide receiver. Every year there are more and more 'surprise' running backs who make real fantasy contributions, either by unexpectedly winning starting jobs or by working their way into committees. As a result, I find it's much better to take the studs at WR and scraps at RB than the other way around, and in a deep competitive league you do have to prioritize your resources.
For instance, last year in the Rotowire Steak League (16 teams, 1 QB/2 RB/3 WR/1 TE starters, six bench spots) I hit on both ends of that approach perfectly, as my WR corps was led by Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant, while my RBs included Eddie Lacy and a dirt cheap Le'Veon Bell (we held the auction right after Bell hurt his knee in camp). I even grabbed Zac Stacy with one of my last $1 buys, although sadly I'd dropped him before he seized the Rams' starting gig.
The list below includes those RBs I consider 'deep sleepers', players who may not even be taken in a shallow league but who become enticing in the later rounds where 50 or more RBs are going to come off the board (by my quick count, in last year's Steak League auction we went 75 RBs deep). You'll notice some obvious rookie absences like Bishop Sankey, simply because he's probably got a starting job already and thus in my estimation doesn't really qualify as a 'sleeper'. I've divided the list into three groups: very interesting players, semi-interesting players, and true long shots. Note that the list reflects my personal preferences, and doesn't include every bench RB in the NFL. For instance, I think Joseph Randle is a bum, so even if DeMarco Murray gets hurt I really don't believe Randle would be able to do much with the extra touches. Hence, he's not listed.
Group 1
Terrance West, Cle: I almost didn't include him given the amount of preseason hype he's received, but his ADP is still about 50 spots lower than Ben Tate's. He almost deserves his own group, as I rate him that much further ahead of the other four guys below. I think there's a real chance West wins the job outright by Week 1, and if not Tate can never seem to stay healthy anyway.
Stepfan Taylor, Ari: This is nothing against the exciting Andre Ellington, but he really hasn't proven he can be a feature back yet. If the little guy breaks down, the job falls to Taylor.
Khiry Robinson, NO: The Saints' committee approach flattens the ceiling of all their backs, but when Bill Parcells compares a guy to Curtis Martin I sit up and take notice. If Robinson gets hot early, he may run away with Mark Ingram's touches and never give them back.
Jeremy Hill, Cin: The heir apparent to the Law Firm, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, as the power back in the Bengals' offense, the transition could come very quickly if Hill shows a spark or BJGE shows his age.
Bryce Brown, Buf: The Bills use a two-back system, and both of those backs (CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson) haven't exactly been models of durability. Brown showed flashes in his two years in Philly, so if he gets a real shot with the Bills he could shine.
Group 2
Andre Williams, NYG: I have little faith in Rashad Jennings, and David Wils0n's neck is still an issue. Meanwhile, Williams seems like he might be the kind of smash-mouth downhill guy Tom Coughlin could love.
Devonta Freeman, Atl: Steven Jackson is O-L-D old in running back years, and Jacquizz Rodgers is just a change-of-pace guy. Freeman's not the most exciting back, but the path to touches is a clear one.
Alfred Blue, Hou: He's got Arian Foster's build and Arian Foster's 40-times coming out of the combine. If the real Foster breaks down yet again, Blue could become version 2.0. Plus, Andre Brown is still Andre Brown.
Christine Michael, Sea: I'd thrown this list together before Marshawn Lynch ended his holdout, so I might drop the Seahawks' backups down to Group 3 by the time I get to my first draft table. Still, Beast Mode has a lot of miles on him, and a late start to camp could leave him susceptible to injury. The question is whether Michael or Robert Turbin would get any opportunities afforded by Lynch's absence. Turbin's still technically number two on the depth chart due to his extra experience, but Michael seems to have the higher upside.
Robert Turbin, Sea: See above.
Tre Mason, StL: Zac Stacy was absolutely outstanding last season once he got a chance, but it was a litany of injuries in the first half that delayed the arrival of that chance. Mason's game has flaws, but he's also got true breakout potential if Stacy falls by the wayside.
Knile Davis, KC: Davis' physical gifts could make him a monster in a full-time role, but unfortunately for him the Chiefs already have a monster in Jamaal Charles. Still, Charles blew out an ACL once already, so another injury is perhaps a touch more likely than with some other elite backs.
Carlos Hyde, SF: Remember when Frank Gore was injury-prone? Good times. The old man is coming off three straight 16-game campaigns, but if he does revert to his brittle ways Hyde is best positioned to pick up the slack, and the rookie's combination of size and just-enough speed could pay big dividends.
Ka'Deem Carey, Chi: Matt Forte is riding high on a career 2013, but the two years prior he had trouble staying on the field. Carey's a bowling ball with a fairly well-rounded skill set, so if Forte does break down Carey should be able to slip right into Marc Trestman's offense.
Group 3
Denard Robinson, Jac: Jordan Todman is technically the backup to Toby Gerhart, but Robinson has far more upside than the pedestrian Todman. Gerhart should be OK in his first real starting gig but he is unproven, and if he proves to be just a guy Robinson's home run ability could steal some touches.
Marcus Lattimore, SF: If Lattimore could just stay healthy, he'd be right there with Carlos Hyde in Group 2 and maybe even above him, since I think his top gear is better than Hyde's. Until he gets and stays healthy though, there's no way Lattimore can be viewed as anything more than a long shot for fantasy value.
Lache Seastrunk, Was: Alfred Morris' performance fell off a bit last season, and the thing about surprise breakout performers is that the club usually has very little investment in them. The Redskins lucked into Morris' big 2012, and if he droops further they'll probably shrug their shoulders and move on to the next guy. Roy Helu probably isn't that guy, but Seastrunk might be.
Lance Dunbar, Dal: DeMarco Murray can't stay healthy, but unfortunately for him neither can Dunbar. If their stints on the shelf line up properly though, Dunbar's game-breaking speed could produce some big fantasy performances. Plus, as I said, Joseph Randle is a bum. (Smart owners will now make sure to roster Randle as part of a reverse jinx play).
Jerick McKinnon, Min: Being Adrian Peterson's backup is a mostly thankless job (this is a guy who only missed four games after blowing out his ACL and MCL, after all), but the miles and surgeries are starting to pile up for AP. Matt Asiata, currently number two on the depth chart, is just a guy, but McKinnon is a physical freak who's rough around the edges. Assuming he's smart enough to watch AP's every move and learn quickly from the master, McKinnon should be able to thrive if Peterson does get hurt again.
James White, NE: Tom Brady should be able to find a use for a back with White's pass-catching skills, and Shane Vereen can't seem to stay healthy. PPR league owners should probably bump White a little higher on their personal lists.
Mikel Leshoure, Det: Hey guys! Remember me? 2011 second round pick? Nine TDs when I finally got healthy in 2012? Joique Bell was a nice story last year, but c'mon now. I'm the real power complement to Reggie Bush in the Lions backfield, right? Hello? Is this thing on?
Chris Polk, Phi: Shady McCoy is the man in Philly, and Darren Sproles is Chip Kelly's shiny new toy, but Sproles is not a lead back. If the unthinkable happens and McCoy goes down, Polk's the only guy on the depth chart who looks capable of doing damage in his place.
Zurlon Tipton, Ind: Now we're in the really deep waters. Trent Richardson is dangerously close to being a total bust, and Ahmad Bradshaw can't stay healthy. Guys with boring, vanilla names like Donald Brown and Vick Ballard have gotten chances in the Indy backfield in recent years, and Tipton is at least as good as them while having the kind of moniker fans can really rally behind. If you can't land an all-world name like Lache Seastrunk for your roster, Zurlon Tipton is the next best thing.
Lorenzo Taliaferro, Bal: In all likelihood, Ray Rice will be fine when he returns from his suspension, and if he isn't Bernard Pierce is around. But both those guys now have questions marks, and if neither one is for some reason available the big, bruising Taliaferro would be next man up.