There may be six more weeks of winter, but we'll be watching spring baseball soon enough.
#SpringTraining first workout dates for each club: pic.twitter.com/40tqwANxU0
— MLB Public Relations (@MLB_PR) February 2, 2015
Monday was a minor-league deal day, as Paul Maholm landed in Cincinnati, John Axford signed with Colorado, and Gerald Laird inked a deal with Arizona. All three players could see more a prominent role than you might expect, given their new clubs' respective needs at their positions.
In honour of Axford's signing with the Rockies, tonight's post will tier the closer rankings for the upcoming season.
*The Ax-man was born in Canada.
Tier 1
1. Aroldis Chapman, CIN -- It's pretty much a 1A, 1B situation, but if I break the seal on the closer pool in 2015, Chapman gets the nod over Kimbrel.
2. Craig Kimbrel, ATL -- The uptick in his walk rate last season is the only concern, and it's a very small one.
Tier 2
3. Greg Holland, KAN -- There is a strong case to be made for Holland to be at the same level as Chapman and Kimbrel. The big difference is that he's on a club with plenty of quality alternatives if he struggles for a prolonged stretch. That said, there's little reason to think a healthy Holland loses save opportunities in 2015.
4. Kenley Jansen, LAD -- Three-Year Averages: 32 saves, 13.4 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 2.30 ERA, 0.94 WHIP.
5. Dellin Betances, NYY -- This of course assumes that the Yankees anoint him as the replacement for David Robertson. Remember to scale back his workload from the 2014 levels as he's unlikely to be used in as many multi-inning situations if he's a full-time closer.
6. David Robertson, CHW -- Excellent skills and $46 million guaranteed buy a lot of leash.
7. Mark Melancon, PIT -- Melancon has become what we always expected a healthy Huston Street to be.
Tier 3
8. Cody Allen, CLE -- 91:26 K:BB in 69.2 IP last season was better than most people realize, as were the ratios (2.07 ERA, 1.06 WHIP).
9. Jonathan Papelbon, PHI -- Even if he's traded, it's hard to imagine Papelbon landing on a team where he isn't tasked with pitching the ninth inning. Unlikable? Sure, but his numbers continue to exceed expectations.
10. Huston Street, LAA -- Only Street, Kimbrel, and Chapman have three-year averages with more saves and ratios that include an ERA below 2.00 and a WHIP below 1.00.
11. Koji Uehara, BOS -- Turning 40 in April, and really fell apart in the second half of the season. Will preventative maintenance and the presence of Edward Mujica limit Uehara to 20-25 save again?
12. Glen Perkins, MIN -- There is a growing possibility of a trade away from Minnesota, and nerve irritation in his pitching arm cut his 2014 short.
Tier 4
13. Drew Storen, WAS -- Would crack the top-10 without Casey Janssen on the roster.
14. Aaron Sanchez, TOR -- Has elite skills, just needs the Jays to avoid bringing in a veteran to take over the job.
15. Steve Cishek, MIA --A BABIP spike masked the skills growth (K/9 above 11.5) that he showed in 2014.
16. Neftali Feliz, TEX -- Expecting the strikeouts to come back in 2015 now that he's further removed from surgery.
17. Fernando Rodney, SEA -- Even in that park, when he falls off, it's going to be a hard fall.
18. Trevor Rosenthal, STL -- Throws gas and had 44 saves last season, but if Carlos Martinez ends up back in the pen and the walk rate doesn't improve, Rosenthal may be in danger of sliding into a setup role.
19. Zach Britton, BAL -- Tons of groundballs, but didn't we see this movie already?
Tier 5
20. Hector Rondon, CHC -- Finished the season with a 23:2 K:BB and 0.67 ERA over the final two months. Could move up 5-10 spots with a strong start that buys him additional job security.
21. Joaquin Benoit, SD -- Kevin Quackenbush could push him for the job out of spring training.
22. Joe Nathan, DET -- Can the future Hall of Famer put the pieces back together after a brutal 2014, or is Joakim Soria destined to replace him by the end of April?
23. Addison Reed, ARI -- Home runs killed him last season, but possession (of the closer's role) is 9/10 of the law.
Tier 6
24. Brad Boxberger, TAM -- As great as Jake McGee was last year, Boxberger has the swing-and-miss stuff to help the Rays avoid missing a beat.
25. Tyler Clippard, OAK -- Can move up 10-15 spots if Sean Doolittle's rotator cuff injuries persist, and he's able to thrive as the replacement.
26. Jenrry Mejia, NYM -- Sure, maybe it's Bobby Parnell's job to lose if he's healthy, but there are a ton of red flags with Parnell even if he's able to get back early in 2015.
27. Santiago Casilla, SF -- Casilla has battled a surprisingly high number of injuries throughout his career. Sergio Romo is still in the fold too. Control is often a problem, and he strikes out fewer batters than you might think.
28. Jonathan Broxton, MIL -- What will derail The Bull? A K-Rod return, Jeremy Jeffress, or a healthy Tyler Thornburg?
29. Luke Gregerson, HOU -- Assuming that Chad Qualls and Pat Neshek are used in setup roles, Gregerson could get an opportunity to close for a full season for the first time as a big leaguer.
30. LaTroy Hawkins, COL -- If you were offered Hawkins v. field of all other Rockies relievers for the season, is it fair to say the field would be the overwhelming preference?
Non Closers to Target
1. Ken Giles, PHI -- Papelbon can avoid receiving a qualifying offer from his new team and hit free agency next winter if he waives his no-trade clause and gets moved after Opening Day. Giles has the skills of a top-five closer, and a very clear path to a job at some point between now and July 31.
2. Joakim Soria, DET -- The Tigers can ill afford to be patient if Joe Nathan struggles again.
3. Kevin Quackenbush, SD -- This is more about the Padres' willingness to trade Joaquin Benoit, or use him as a setup man than anything else.
4. Wade Davis, KAN -- Davis becomes an elite closer if an injury befalls Greg Holland. He'd be a better speculative target if Holland weren't elite himself.
5. Jeremy Jeffress, MIL -- Aside from mileage eroding his skills, Jonathan Broxton has durability concerns.
6. R.J. Alvarez, OAK -- It's a long shot, but perhaps the A's will want to deploy Clippard the way they used Luke Gregerson. Alvarez has been unhittable in the minors.
7. Brad Brach, BAL -- If it's not Darren O'Day as the next man up, maybe it's Brach? I've always been intrigued by his raw ability.
8. Kyuji Fujikawa, TEX -- Neftali Feliz's aforementioned injury issues could open the door for Fujikawa to close after his time in Chicago was a disappointment due to a torn UCL.