If I were in a draft today - and I wish I were - I'd take Josh Gordon as early as the fifth round. Because I don't think anyone else would, I might wait until the sixth, but at any ADP beyond 50, he's a steal right now.

Here's why: only one sample of the two from Gordon's positive tests for marijuana was reportedly above the threshold (and barely) to qualify as "positive".

Key quote from ESPN:

Gordon's "A" sample tested at 16 nanograms per milliliter, a bare one nanogram per milliliter above the 15-nanogram-per-milliliter threshold, while Gordon's "B" sample -- which should theoretically be consistent with the "A" sample, as it comes from the exact same specimen -- tested at 13.63 ng/ml, lower than the threshold."

Moreover, the amounts for which he tested are so low they could be due to second-hand smoke which is why other sports like MLB have a higher threshold (Why they bother to test for marijuana at all is another matter). From Gordon's earlier arrest when his friend was found to have had weed in his car, it's pretty easy to see where Gordon would have been exposed to second-hand smoke.

With such a marginal positive test - and as ESPN points out 70 other negative tests this past year - it's going to be hard to give Gordon more than a four-game suspension as a result.

But even four games could be a hard sell.

That's because Ray Rice just got two games for knocking his fiancee out and dragging her out of an elevator, all caught on video. If the NFL concedes Gordon's test was so marginally positive that they don't suspend him for the entire season, how can they justify upholding a suspension that's twice as long as Rice's? They would be doubling down on the terrible PR they got from Rice's slap on the wrist.

Medical marijuana is now legal in 23 states and recreational marijuana is legal in two. The New York Times is calling for an end to federal prohibition on its front page. In this environment giving Gordon, who barely met the threshold, a longer suspension than Rice would be preposterously out of step with the prevailing ethics of its fan base. While the NFL might still be tone deaf enough to do it, I'd bet against it.

Bottom line, I'd project Gordon for 10-12 games right now based on all the the possible outcomes and their various likelihoods, and that's worth at least a fourth round pick. Taking him in Round 5 is an overlay.