Scheme and Metrics fantasy team preview- we'll take a look at each of the 32 teams and look at a combination of offensive scheme/philosophy and some player metrics to give us something else to think about when drafting our fantasy squads this summer. In this edition, we'll look at the Los Angeles Rams.
The system/scheme
• Did Bill Belichick figure out how to stifle the Rams' offense last year? And if he did, the whole world was watching (and taking notes). Of course, many think Vic Fangio figured the Rams out earlier in the season and Belichick took notes, but anyway… if that's the case, Sean McVay will need to prove he's the genius many think he is by reacting to the league's potential adjustments. If this was simply McVay's singular gimmick, the offense could fall apart overnight, especially since they have a marginal QB when he's under pressure.
• At its best, the system deploys heavy use of 11 personnel, and all three WRs are lined up close to the formation, which allows them to either block, run rub routes, use jet action for sweeps/fakes while allowing the RBs to function in an outside-zone run scheme. What Fangio and Belichick (in part) did was to take away the outside running lanes and jammed the WRs to disrupt timing.
Metrics
• Darrell Henderson has very good speed (81st-percentile 40-yard dash and 72nd-percentile speed score), but his explosion and agility are both below average at the 45th-percentile. He was nearly unstoppable, as he ran for 8.9 yards per carry in each of his last two college seasons.
• Cooper Kupp has non-existent speed and explosion, and he counts on 91st percentile agility to be a dominant slot WR, but it doesn't seem like a player less than a year removed from this injury will be 100 percent, and if his agility isn't all the way back, he may not be a very good player- and that's assuming this offense doesn't get figured out by the league.
• Josh Reynolds has slightly above-average speed, he has better explosion (72nd-percentile) and agility (80th-percentile), so he's a really good fit for the offense.
• Gerald Everett ran an 87th-percentile 40-yard-dash with 93rd-percentile explosion and 81st-percentile agility while being an 85th percentile SPARQ athlete. If he sees an increase in usage, he could be a deadly weapon for the offense.
Positive Spin
• Either the offense keeps rolling as they have for the past couple years, or if defenses make adjustments, McVay has anticipated those this offseason and made his own counter moves. The stable of RBs put up the same level of production, even if Gurley is limited throughout the season. Also, Kupp proves to be recovered enough to provide a deadly threat from the slot.
Negative Spin
• The blueprint for shutting down this offense is implemented by my opposing coaches and not only is Goff under quite a bit of pressure, but the running game struggles without the gaping holes that were there in the past. They still move the ball, but instead of being an elite offense, they're pretty much in the middle of the pack.
My advice-
(I'm not a contrarian by nature, but every year, we're blown away by the unexpected in fantasy football. Very few people are talking about the possibility that McVay's genius was simply this system, and that if it's stopped like most novelty offenses eventually are, all of the ADPs for this team will be way too high. If you feel the Rams will be fine, ignore my advice!)
• Goff has been much better at home than on the road, so there's already a built-in negative if drafting him. If he's under any more pressure or doesn't have the clean looks tat McVay has produced for him, we're looking at a low-end QB2- I'm out on him.
• There's chatter that Gurley could see 65 percent of the snaps- at his second-round ADP, the upside isn't there for that type of risk.
• Unless Darrell Henderson starts falling until roughly pick 100 (it won't happen- not even close), I can't draft someone who could be just a third-down and change-of-pace guy. Also, people are forgetting that Malcolm Brown could siphon away some valuable touches as well.
• Robert Woods is still the safest option in the offense. He has great chemistry with Goff, and Woods is capable of getting open at all levels, so if he's the highest-ranked player on my board when it's my turn to draft, I wouldn't hesitate to take him.
• Brandin Cooks has thrived on three-different teams. I was worried when he moved from Brees and Brady to Goff, but McVay schemed him open on a consistent basis. I have no doubt about Cooks' talent, but if the offense is exposed, then Goff is unlikely to have sustained success with his deep threat, and I won't spend a high draft pick on Cooks.
• As mentioned earlier, I can't gamble on a player who relies mostly on agility to be his usual self well less than a year before CL surgery. I'll let someone else take the gamble, especially since there are other excellent players available at that point of the draft.
• Gerald Everett could be very interesting if the offense gets figured out- if that happens, McVay could be forced to use more 12 personnel, which could mean more work for Everett. Also, he's in his third year and has an amazing athletic profile. He can be drafted late as a TE2, but if he gets used regularly, he can crush his ADP.