Scheme and Metrics fantasy team preview- we'll take a look at each of the 32 teams and look at a combination of offensive scheme/philosophy and some player metrics to give us something else to think about when drafting our fantasy squads this summer. In this edition, we'll look at the Green Bay Packers.
The system/scheme
• Matt LaFleur has now impressed two front offices, but he is on record as saying that he believes in running the football, and he doesn't seem to understand how to use analytics to create mismatches for his offense (one example is that he fails to realize the importance of throwing to RBs on early downs). It's possible he figures this out and creates an explosive offense, but his comments and past experience have me concerned.
Metrics
• Aaron Jones has 88th-percentile explosion with an 89th-percentile agility score while having a 61st-percentile 40-yard-dash time. He's easily the most gifted athlete in this backfield, and he was rated as one of the best pass-blocking RBs in the league last year. If the coaching staff commits to him, look out- with Aaron Rodgers at QB, he should see light boxes and be very productive.
• Geronimo Allison has shown to be one of those WRs who was able to gain Aaron Rodgers' trust, making him a useful fantasy option. However, with 6th percentile agility and 21st percentile speed to go with below-average explosion, he could have a limited ceiling.
• Marquez Valdes-Scantling may not have much explosion (15th-percentile), but he has 97th-percentile speed and 74th-percentile agility, and now that he's expected to be a starting outside WR for Rodgers, he could have a massive breakout.
Positive Spin
• LaFleur figures out the Jones is his best RB and uses him in a work horse role while also realizing that the team needs to throw on early downs. This would not just put the best personnel on the field but would put the offense in more favorable down and distance situations, which would make this offense a juggernaut with Rodgers as the QB.
Negative Spin
• LeFleur's offseason words ring true and he runs the ball frequently on early downs while in base formations. Also, he fails to use tight-end heavy personnel packages with the intention of letting Rodgers throw the ball with fewer defensive backs on the field. As a result, Rodgers ends up 'winging it', like he did when playing for Mike McCarthy, and the offense ends up being merely a 'good' offense that never reaches its ceiling.
My advice-
• I am skeptical that LaFleur is going to use analytics, so I won't be drafting Rodgers at the top-three price he's going at. Sure, he'll have a solid floor, but if the offense doesn't get catch up to the times, he doesn't have the ceiling he should.
• He'll be drafted at varying points in drafts, but if Jones falls into the RB2 range, his upside makes him someone who could easily smash his ADP
• Davante Adams is being drafted at his peak value- if he sees a decrease in targets due to an emerging MVS and a healthy Geronimo Allison, that makes Adams someone who may not be able to justify that mid-first round pick.
• I am aggressively targeting Valdes-Scantling- as an outside WR for Aaron Rodgers and across from Adams- MVS has blazing speed, and if Adams sees the majority of double-teams, Valdes-Scantling could be an absolute beast who can be selected in a great spot in drafts.
• Last year, I faded Jimmy Graham because when I last saw him in Seattle, the film showed me that he couldn't run effectively anymore- now two years removed from Seattle, and after a 'meh' season in Green Bay, I'd rather draft an emerging TE over a declining one.