Instead of making my own cheat sheet from scratch this year, I decided to put together a hybrid NFBC/algorithmic projections one. But no cheat sheet, no matter how well calibrated, is sufficient to prepare you for competitive drafts. One problem is that projected stats are 50th-percentile estimates of a player's possible outcomes, and as you get deeper into the draft, the 50th-percentile output becomes less and less important. What you're looking for is optionality, i.e., what could go right?
To that end, you need to be aware of potential playing time opportunities (as well as likely avenues for skills growth). A cheat sheet lists players in order, but not in context. For context you need depth charts, and I rely on them heavily, while clicking through to the player pages and learning more about their skill sets. But instead of building my findings into a cheat sheet this year, I decided to make a list of key findings I can use to supplement my hybrid one. These are the key things I want to know as I'm crossing off players during my draft:
Sleepers | Team | Closers | Team | CIW | Players I like | Players I don't |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Marcus Semien | A's | Blake Treinen | A's | Soria/Rodney | Matt Harvey | Alex Bregman |
Ramon Laureano | A's | Cody Allen | Angels | Buttrey | Willians Astudillo | George Springer |
Zach Cozart | Angels | Roberto Osuna | Astros | Pressley | Gary Sanchez | Jesus Aguilar |
Max Stassi | Astros | Ken Giles | Blue Jays | Norris | Carlos Correa | Matt Carpenter |
Tyler White | Astros | Vizcaino/Minter | Braves | Minter | Jose Altuve | Javy Baez |
Aledmys Diaz | Astros | Knebel/Hader | Brewers | Hader | Michael Brantley | Antony Rizzo |
Wade Miley | Astros | Hicks/Miller | Cards | Miller | Jurickson Profar | Ian Happ |
Dansby Swanson | Braves | Strop/Morrow | Cubs | Edwards | Vlad Guerrero | Robbie Ray |
Orlando Arcia | Brewers | Bradley/Holland/Hirano | D-Backs | Hirano | Josh Donaldson | Zack Godley |
Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | Kenley Jansen | Dodgers | Ronald Acuna | Shane Bieber | |
Tyler O'Neill | Cardinals | Will Smith | Giants | Melancon | Mike Foltynewicz | Mike Clevinger |
Harrison Bader | Cardinals | Brad Hand | Indians | Marcell Ozuna | Corey Kluber | |
Wilmer Flores | D-Backs | Strickland/Swarzak | Mariners | Kris Bryant | Cody Bellinger | |
Luke Weaver | D-Backs | Romo/Steckenrider/Conley | Marlins | Yu Darvish | Nick Pivetta | |
Drew Pomeranz | Giants | Edwin Diaz | Mets | Familia | Wilmer Flores | Jameson Taillon |
Greg Allen | Indians | Sean Doolittle | Nationals | Rosenthal | Pedro Strop | Michael Conforto |
Marco Gonzalez | Mariners | Mychal Givens | Orioles | Scott | Archie Bradley | |
Felix Hernandez | Mariners | Kirby Yates | Padres | Stammen | Corey Seager | |
Lewis Brinson | Marlins | David Robertson | Phillies | Dominguez | Walker Buehler | |
Jose Urena | Marlins | Felipe Vazquez | Pirates | Kela | Mark Melancon | |
Jeff McNeil | Mets | Jose LeClerc | Rangers | Chavez/Kelley | Tyler Glasnow | |
Trevor Rosenthal | Nationals | Jose Alvarado | Rays | D. Castillo | Byron Buxton | |
Michael Taylor | Nationals | Barnes/Braiser | Red Sox | Zach Eflin | ||
Matt Adams | Nationals | Iglesias | Reds | Hernandez | Francisco Cervelli | |
Jeremy Hellickson | Nationals | Wade Davis | Rockies | Oh | Charlie Morton | |
Mark Trumbo | Orioles | Boxberger/Peralta | Royals | Steven Matz | ||
Chance Sisco | Orioles | Shane Greene | Tigers | Jimenez | Rafael Devers | |
Richie Martin | Orioles | Trevor May | Twins | Parker | Stephen Strasburg | |
Maikel Franco | Phillies | Herrera/Colome | White Sox | Herrera | Nick Senzel | |
Jake Arrieta | Phillies | Chapman | Yankees | Betances/Britton | Daniel Murphy | |
Vince Velasquez | Phillies | Garrett Hampson | ||||
Zach Eflin | Phillies | Wade Davis | ||||
Elias Diaz | Pirates | Miguel Cabrera | ||||
Jung Ho Kang | Pirates | Masahiro Tanaka | ||||
Gregory Polanco | Pirates | J.A. Happ | ||||
Willie Calhoun | Rangers | |||||
Mike Minor | Rangers | |||||
Lance Lynn | Rangers | |||||
Shelby Miller | Rangers | |||||
Willy Adames | Rays | |||||
Avisail Garcia | Rays | |||||
Steve Pearce | Red Sox | |||||
Anthony Desclafani | Reds | |||||
Mark Reynolds | Rockies | |||||
Garrett Hampson | Rockies | |||||
Kyle Freeland | Rockies | |||||
Jon Gray | Rockies | |||||
Ramil Tapia | Rockies | |||||
Jorge Soler | Royals | |||||
Brett Phillips | Royals | |||||
John Hicks | Tigers | |||||
Ronny Rodriguez | Tigers | |||||
Victor Reyes | Tigers | |||||
Michael Fulmer | Tigers | |||||
Mitch Garver | Twins | |||||
Michael Pineda | Twins | |||||
Martin Perez | Twins | |||||
Lucas Giolito | White Sox | |||||
Troy Tulowitzki | Yankees | |||||
Clint Frazier | Yankees |
Catchers | Team | Prospects | Team | Injured | Duration | Multi Pos | Pos | DH-only |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hermann/Phegley/Hundley | A's | Franklin Barretto | A's | Francisco Lindor | April | Adam Frazier | 2B-OF | Y. Diaz |
Lucroy | Angels | Jesus Luzardo | A's | Luis Severino | April | Alcides Escobar | 3B-SS | K. Davis |
Chirinos/Stassi | Astros | Jorge Mateo | A's | Mike Foltynewicz | April | Aledmys Diaz | 3B-SS | N. Cruz |
Danny Jansen/Maile | Blue Jays | Jo Adell | Angels | Luiz Gohara | April | Alen Hanson | 2B-OF | Ohtani |
McCann/Flowers | Braves | Luis Rengifo | Angels | Cesar Hernandez | April | Alex Bregman | 3B-SS | Choi |
Grandal/Pina | Brewers | Griffin Canning | Angels | Kelvin Herrera | April | Asdrubal Cabrera | 2B-3B-SS | Trumbo |
Yadier Molina/Knizner | Cardinals | Josh James | Astros | Aaron Hicks | April | Ben Zobrist | 2B-OF | Morales |
Contreras/Caratini | Cubs | Kyle Tucker | Astros | Clayton Kershaw | April | Blake Swihart | C-OF | |
Kelly/Avila/Murphy | D-Backs | Forrest Whitley | Astros | Howie Kendrick | April | Brad Miller | 1B-2B | |
Austin Barnes/Martin | Dodgers | Myles Straw | Astros | Jimmy Nelson | April | Brandon Dixon | 1B-OF | |
Buster Posey | Giants | Corbin Martin | Astros | Roman Quinn | April | Brian Anderson | OF-3B | |
Roberto Perez/Plawecki | Indians | Corey Ray | Astros | Mallex Smith | April | Brock Holt | 2B-SS | |
Omar Narvaez | Mariners | Rowdy Tellez | Blue Jays | Mike Soroka | April | Chad Pinder | 2B-OF | |
Jorge Alfaro | Marlins | Vlad Guerrero | Blue Jays | Carlos Martinez | TBD | Charlie Culberson | SS-3B-OF | |
Wilson Ramos | Mets | Billy McKinney | Blue Jays | Brandon Morrow | May | Chris Taylor | SS-OF | |
Yan Gomes/Kurt Suzuki | Nationals | Bo Bichette | Blue Jays | Gregory Polanco | May | Corey Spangenberg | 2B-3B | |
Chance Sisco/Austin Wynns | Orioles | Mike Soroka | Braves | Miguel Sano | May | Daniel Descalso | 2B-3B | |
Mejia/Hedges | Padres | Touki Toussaint | Braves | Shohei Ohtani | May | Daniel Robertson | 2B-SS | |
Realmuto | Phillies | Austin Riley | Braves | Addison Russell | May | David Fletcher | 2B-3B | |
Cervelli/Diaz | Pirates | Bryse Wilson | Braves | Dinelson Lamet | June | Dee Gordon | 2B-OF | |
Kiner-Falefa/Mathis | Rangers | Kyle Wright | Braves | Danny Salazar | June | Eduardo Escobar | 3B-SS | |
Zunino/Perez | Rays | Corbin Burnes | Brewers | Bradley Zimmer | July | Eduardo Nunez | 2B-3B | |
Swihart/Vazquez/Leon | Red Sox | Keston Hiura | Brewers | Didi Gregorius | July | Eric Sogard | 2B-SS | |
Barnhart/Casali | Reds | Alex Reyes | Cardinals | Jordan Montgomery | July | Eric Thames | 1B-OF | |
Iannetta/Wolters/Murphy | Rockies | Andrew Knizer | Cardinals | Taijuan Walker | July | Gleyber Torres | 2B-SS | |
Gallagher/Viloria | Royals | Jon Duplantier | D-Backs | A.J. Puk | July | Hernan Perez | 2B-3B-SS-OF | |
Greiner/Hicks | Tigers | Alex Verdugo | Dodgers | Sean Manaea | ASB | Hunter Dozier | 1B-3B | |
Castro/Garver/Astudillo | Twins | Dennis Santana | Dodgers | Bretnt Honeywell | ASB | Ian Desmond | 1B-OF | |
Wellington Castillo/McCann | White Sox | Dustin May | Dodgers | Ian Happ | 3B-OF | |||
Gary Sanchez/Romine | Yankees | Jake Bauers | Indians | Isiah Kiner-Falefa | C-2B-3B | |||
Justus Sheffield | Mariners | Jace Peterson | 3B-OF | |||||
Triston McKenzie | Mariners | Javier Baez | 2B-3B-SS | |||||
Justin Dunn | Mariners | Joey Gallo | 1B-OF | |||||
Victor Mesa | Marlins | Joey Wendle | 2B-3B | |||||
Monte Harrison | Marlins | John Hicks | C-1B | |||||
Peter Alonso | Mets | Jose Bautista | 3B-OF | |||||
Jeff McNeill | Mets | Jose Martinez | 1B-OF | |||||
Victor Robles | Nationals | Jose Pirela | 2B-OF | |||||
Yusniel Diaz | Orioles | Jose Reyes | 3B-SS | |||||
Ryan Mountcastle | Orioles | Jurickson Profar | 1B-3B-SS | |||||
Fernando Tatis | Padres | Ketel Marte | 2B-SS | |||||
Luis Urias | Padres | Kike Hernandez | 2B-SS-OF | |||||
Chris Paddack | Padres | Kris Bryant | 3B-OF | |||||
Logan Allen | Padres | Lourdes Gurriel | 2B-SS | |||||
Andres Munoz | Padres | Marwin Gonzalez | 1B-2B-SS-OF | |||||
Scott Kingery | Phillies | Matt Carpenter | 1B-3B | |||||
Adam Haseley | Phillies | Max Muncy | 1B-3B | |||||
Kevin Kramer | Pirates | Miguel Rojas | 1B-3B-SS | |||||
Mitch Keller | Pirates | Neil Walker | 1B-2B-3B | |||||
Colin Poche | Rays | Niko Goodrum | 1B-2B | |||||
Brandon Lowe | Rays | Pablo Sandoval | 1B-3B | |||||
Brent Honeywell | Rays | Russell Martin | C-3B | |||||
Nate Lowe | Rays | Tim Beckham | 3B-SS | |||||
Nick Solak | Rays | Travis Shaw | 2B-3B | |||||
Michael Chavis | Red Sox | Whit Merrifield | 2B-OF | |||||
Bobby Dalbec | Red Sox | Wil Myers | 3B-OF | |||||
Nick Senzel | Reds | Wilmer Difo | 2B-3B | |||||
Tony Santillan | Reds | Yadiel Rivera | 3B-SS | |||||
Brendan Rodgers | Rockies | Yairo Munoz | 2B-3B-SS-OF | |||||
Tyler Nevin | Rockies | Yangervis Solarte | 2B-3B | |||||
Colton Welker | Rockies | Yuli Gurriel | 1B-3B | |||||
Casey Mize | Tigers | |||||||
Daz Cameron | Tigers | |||||||
Matt Manning | Tigers | |||||||
Jeff Kirilloff | Twins | |||||||
Eloy Jimenez | White Sox | |||||||
Dylan Cease | White Sox | |||||||
Nick Madrigal | White Sox | |||||||
Clint Frazier | Yankees | |||||||
Jonathan Loaisiga | Yankees | |||||||
Clarke Schmidt | Yankees | |||||||
Deivi Garcia | Yankees |
A few notes on the categories:
Sleepers aren't necessarily players I think *will* be good, just those that have a chance and a modicum of skills to overperform their low draft costs. Players I like are those who are going at too much of a discount, and those I don't like are too expensive. But that I don't like Alex Bregman as a first-round pick doesn't mean I wouldn't still take him over Carlos Correa (who I like.) It's just that the gap between them should be one round (Bregman in 2, Correa in 3) rather than three.
Closers and closers in waiting are important to know, no matter their projections. Some closers in waiting are left blank because I have no idea who would get the job if the current closer loses it.
The rest are fairly self-explanatory. Catchers, prospects (all of those who were in James Anderson's top 200 and who have an ETA of 2018 or 2019), players with dual eligibility and injured players.