When things go badly, there's usually a turning point, an event or instant in time before which everything was fine. In last year's Super Bowl, for example, it was when the first offensive snap went over Peyton Manning's head. Today that point for me was when Jarius Wright caught a short pass in overtime and took it for an 87-yard touchdown. I remember watching the last man who had a chance to catch him, Sheldon Richardson, momentarily looking like he had an angle, but realizing it was a defensive end chasing a wide receiver, and the deed was done, the game over, an almost sure win downgraded to a push. It seemed like a small deal (My ATS record went from 6-4 to 5-4-1), but it was the falling pebble that portended the afternoon avalanche.

For starters, I had San Francisco in Survivor. Two of the other four guys had New Orleans and were already dead, while the other remaining entry had the 49ers too. I was writing the email to him in my mind, asking if he'd be up for splitting $1000 of the pot and playing for the rest. The game was tied at the half, but surely the 49ers could hold on against Oakland even if they didn't cover the 8.5 I had laid. And Denver was up 24-3. Just as I predicted the problem would be more the Buffalo offense matching up with Denver's defense than vice-versa, and the 10-point spread looked relatively safe. I had the Chiefs, who were up 14-6, plus-one and the Eagles minus-one who were in a tight 50/50 game. Fast forward a couple hours, and I was 0-4 ATS, and there are once again still four of us left in the survivor pool. Had I simply picked the biggest favorite available to me - the Lions - I would have taken down the whole thing.

• Tom Brady didn't have a great game against the Chargers, but he's almost always poised. He's slow, but he knows when to run for a first down, he calls time out rather than taking a delay of game. He's relentless, even after throwing a pick to end the first half and starting the second with four three-and-outs. The contrast with Colin Kaepernick, on whom I had foolishly staked my survivor hopes, could not have been more stark. Kaepernick lost track of the play clock and got flagged at least twice, took five sacks and threw two picks. Like Jay Cutler Thursday night, Kaepernick looks like he's checked out, going through the motions of playing quarterback in the NFL, but in a detached way - like he'd rather get the game over with and be somewhere else. Not quite Robert Griffin checked out, but almost.

• The most surprising part of the Raiders-Niners wasn't Kaepernick's ineptitude, however - that I had priced in. It was the Raiders ability to sustain drives against what had been a stout Niner defense, mostly because Derek Carr was spreading the ball around nicely and because the Niners could not generate any kind of pass rush in the second half.

• LeGarrette Blount is like a bigger Marshawn Lynch. The Steelers don't miss him yet because Le'Veon Bell is so great, but New England got a significant windfall.

• I was wrong about Julian Edelman. He's obviously still a big part of the offense even with Rob Gronkowski 100 percent and the team finding an outside threat in Brandon LaFell. The Patriots might well win the Super Bowl now that their defense is good again, but I can't help but think they'd be almost unbeatable had Aaron Dobson developed into a field stretcher or had they signed a DeSean Jackson type.

• I assumed AZ-KC would be unwatchable and largely stayed away. I know people were up in arms about the Travis Kelce fumble, but I missed it, and as I had KC-plus one, I don't even want to know.

• The one game Peyton Manning decides not to stat-pad (and extend his second-best ever consecutive-games-with-a-TD-pass streak) is the one in which I could have used the extra score. Such a random record, though, and heavily dependent on game flow. I'm actually glad the Broncos didn't force-feed it. But they did go into a shell over the last six minutes and trade points for time while running out the clock. I can only imagine the number of Manning/Demaryius Thomas owners who are out of their playoffs as a result.

• The Seahawks didn't seem close to the same team as last year to me - they struggled against the Rams, Raiders and Chargers and were abused by the Cowboys at home. But after looking dominant on defense against some weak offenses, the decisive win in Philadelphia today makes them co-favorites with the Packers in the NFC.

• Aaron Rodgers, Manning or Brady will probably win MVP this year, but given Russell Wilson's meager receiving options and how dependent that offense is on his unique skills, he should be in the mix, despite cosmetically less impressive numbers. (They're actually not that much less impressive when you add 91 rush attempts and at a net of 7.5 yards per rush.)

• Talk about shameless stat-padding, why else was Drew Brees still playing in a 41-3 game late in the fourth quarter?

• Cam Newton sure showed up for Week 1 of the playoffs, that is for the rare teams who rostered him and made it. Jonathan Stewart turned back the clock five years too, albeit against the Saints defense.

• I guess it's time to bury the whole home/road split narrative about the Saints.

• Ben Roethlisberger should have 35 TDs by season's end and push 5,000 yards. The production has come unevenly, but in leagues where total points matter, that's not a problem. Bell should break 2,000 yards from scrimmage in Week 15 and has a chance to post one of the all-time marks in that category too.

• Geno Smith threw a pick six on his first pass, but otherwise played a good game, getting 8.8 YPA, running for 33 yards and making good decisions. I doubt he's the future for the Jets, but he wasn't the problem today. Teddy Bridgewater also had a good game, but his 11.4 YPA was severely padded by Wright's short catch and 87-yard run in overtime.

• Maybe I was wrong about the Bucs turning a corner defensively.

• The Dolphins are kind of like the Chiefs - they don't generate enough big plays in the passing game. And unlike Kansas City they don't have Jamaal Charles.

• You have to hand it to Eli Manning. No one else throws a pick-six up 30-0. On a screen pass, no less. I wonder how many people who used the Giants defense lost the shutout on account of that and swung a win to a loss in the process.

• I wouldn't get too excited about Andre Williams' huge game. He beat up on a weak run defense, doesn't have a ton of wiggle or pass-catching skills and the team's offensive line isn't especially good. But Odell Beckham is a safe bet to get a big workload the last three weeks.

• Mike Pettine's decision to play it "safe" and stick with Brian Hoyer was actually a huge gamble, and it failed. Given how well the Browns defense played (and how many mistakes Andrew Luck made), even a league average QB would have led the Browns to an easy win. Hoyer missed wide open receivers, threw two picks and generated almost no offense despite the Colts missing their best cover corner. If Pettine doesn't at least find out what he has in Manziel this week while the Browns still have a glimmer of hope, he should be fired over the loudspeaker at halftime against the Bengals next week.

• John Lynch, who was in the booth for the IND-CLE game, took it upon himself to defend Hoyer all game, chastising the fans for booing yet another three-and-out ("Some boo birds after the punt. Guys, you're winning the game!") and blaming Josh Gordon for not catching a poorly thrown Hoyer pass late where Gordon laid out to get it, barely got his hands on it and got nicked up in the process, saying something to the effect of: "He's got to catch that ball. When you get suspended you hurt your team in other ways." Even Joe Buck and Jim Nantz don't have that degree of mindless buy-in to the outcome-based, establishment-approved narrative.