I'm doing this in part as an excuse to create a Sporcle Quiz for the first time, stealing Liss's inspiration to do so, and because I only have a few quick takes looking at this week's slate.

Survivor

You should read Chris Liss's weekly Survivor Article for real analysis, including the math underpinnings for each week, but I have a few of my own thoughts.

• This is the most difficult Survivor slate in recent weeks. After the carnage of the first few weeks of the season, it's been pretty easy to coast along until last week, when the Jets, Eagles, Patriots and Falcons knocked out a third of the remaining entries in one of my double-elimination pools. The Saints are the biggest favorite on the board, at -8.5 points in most places, followed by the Chargers at -7.5. Making matters worse, the Saints are up against the defending Super Bowl Champs in the Eagles, who are essentially in a "must-win" game after falling to 4-5 last Sunday night. There are no other teams favored by six points or higher. The next two highest favorites are Pittsburgh on the road at Jacksonville, and Arizona (!) at home against the Raiders.
• I've decided to rule out Arizona, for a couple of reasons. One, I can't escape the feeling that taking them is akin to taking the Jets last week against the Bills - merely taking a team because of their opponent is not sound enough, not in a season where there don't appear to be "special bad" teams like the Browns were last year, though the Raiders lately have put that theory to the test. But the Cardinals are just 2-7 in their own right, have scored the fewest points in the NFL this season so far (though they have a game in hand over the Bills, who score at a lower rate per game, but only barely!), and have been outscored by 101 points in total this year. Moreover, in my double-elimination pool, not a single participant has used them yet, both eliminated and among the 27 still alive. Thus, I think that their ownership rate will skew higher than 11.9% rate that they're being picked across all pools at OfficeFootballPool.com.

• I think I'm going to steer away from the Saints, too - mostly because the Eagles just scare me, even if their recent form doesn't justify that. 10 of the other 26 participants still alive in my pool also have the Saints available. Also, I don't have the Chargers available still, unfortunately.
• Instead, I'm leaning towards Baltimore, assuming that they don't start RG3 against the Bengals. As you well know, I'm a self-hating Bengals fan, so take this with the appropriate grain of salt. I think that the Ravens have a golden opportunity to give Lamar Jackson his first NFL start, with the cover of a Joe Flacco injury. They are facing a Bengals team that's allowing more yards and more plays against than anyone in the NFL - in fact, they are on pace to allow more yards than any team ever ... topping the 2012 Saints woebegone squad. I doubt that Marvin Lewis can turn this ship around, and less convinced that he can do so immediately, especially when accounting for the injuries on the team on both sides of the ball. However ... if the Ravens start RG3, I just can't get behind them - I'll then pivot to the Saints.
• I already have one loss in this pool, and of the 27 remaining participants, seven don't have a loss yet. So I think I have a particularly high burden to find a lesser owned team, and hope for chaos. 16/26 have the Steelers available, and they are a higher favorite, on the road no less. The Lev Bell situation coming to a close might actually motivate them, or it might sow the seeds of chaos. I'm ok fading them.

Test Your Perceptions Quiz

I was doing a radio hit this morning and the host asked me about the rush defense for a particular team - one that has been traditionally strong against the run, and one that I perceived to be playing pretty well right now. My perception was wrong, however - this team is averaging 5.0 yards per carry against, 29th in the NFL, though they are facing fewer attempts than the other teams in their tier.

That leads me to this Sporcle quiz. I can't promise I'll do this on a regular basis, but I think it's always good to test your perceptions of the league. Keep in mind this is measured by Yards Per Rushing Attempt, and not total rushing yards.

Which team do you think I was referring to, in testing perceptions? Hint: It's not the Bengals. You already know that they stink.

Speaking of the stinky Bengals, did you realize that they're the only team in the NFL that hasn't forced a fumble in the run game? They are also one of seven teams that have not recovered a fumble in the run game (Saints, Titans, Jaguars, Chargers, Bengals, Chiefs, Falcons).