Barring significant new developments, you should not tinker with your lineups at the last minute. After all, why would the present version of you be any more competent than the one who already looked things over three days before? If anything, the current version, exposed to pre-game noise on Twitter or elsewhere, is likely more impulsive and more prone to overweighting whatever isolated factor is brought to your immediate attention.
Usually I set all my lineups Thursday (not just the players affected by the Thursday night game), and then I'll tweak before the Sunday game to account for any late developments. For some reason - without thinking much of it at the time - I swapped out LeSean McCoy in my FLEX (full PPR) for Christian Kirk about 90 minutes before kickoff. McCoy had been a dud all year, and Kirk was likely to see extra work in a pass-friendly gameflow against the Chiefs, I reasoned. I made the switch and mostly forgot about it.
Prior to kickoff, I had an easy feeling though.
Expect Week 10 to be fairly brutal. Have that feeling like I left the house without something important, but I can't remember what it is.
— Christopher Liss (@Chris_Liss) November 11, 2018
Something wasn't right, though I couldn't put my finger on it. Maybe it was just generalized anxiety about the prospect of civilizational collapse, something that operates in the background of my consciousness and spikes every time a team contemplates signing Tom Savage.
The important thing, I thought, was whatever I'm feeling, I absolutely must not revisit my lineups, finalized 90 minutes earlier:
Three minutes until your season-destroying mistakes are irretrievably locked in. You could go in an prevent it right now, but are you preventing it or creating your own fate like Oedipus?
— Christopher Liss (@Chris_Liss) November 11, 2018
I did nothing, and as a result, I'm now locked in a tight battle in an NFFC league where I was in first place heading into the week, rather than sailing to an easy win. I also lost my final remaining survivor entry on the Eagles Sunday night, though I had the Cowboys ATS. It's always hard to thread that needle, though in Week 10, your options are rarely ideal.
• Carson Wentz got his - 360 yards (8.2 YPA), two TDs and two sacks, but he was lucky not to throw a second pick and never really connected down the field. The Cowboys pass rush was in his face a lot, but you'd like to see him make big plays with outside receivers.
• Zach Ertz (16-14-145-2) was an absolute monster in the second half. He's the No. 1 TE now, slightly ahead of Travis Kelce.
• The Eagles RB by committee featured an effective Josh Adams (seven carries), an ineffective Corey Clement (five) and Wendell Smallwood as the pass catcher (3-for-30.) Adams (if any) seems like the one to own, but we won't know until the game flow is more favorable.
• Golden Tate was quiet in his first game. Alshon Jeffery saw eight targets, but had only 48 yards. Nelson Agholor led the wideouts with a 7-5-83 line.
• Dak Prescott played decently, though he threw a would-be pick that was dropped. He went for 270 and a TD, while also running in a score.
• Ezekiel Elliott had a monster game - 187 YFS, six catches and two TDs. He doesn't have as much wiggle as some smaller backs, but he's fast, always moving forward, and at 228 pounds, hard to bring down. He showed his athleticism hurdling a defender and getting extra yardage before losing his balance on a play.
• Amari Cooper (10-6-75) is the clear No. 1 WR and adds another dimension to the offense. The Cowboys paid a lot (first-round pick) to get him, but he could be the missing piece for them to win the division this year.
• I worked my tail off for that Rams cover, only to see them give it away and then nearly lose the game in the closing minute. Between the weak prevent defense and the poor final offensive series, the Rams botched the end game badly. It was also annoying that two of the Seahawks TDs came on drives that were extended by penalties that didn't affect the play (roughing the passer and unsportsmanlike conduct), both of which occurred off-camera.
• Jared Goff had a solid game - 318 yards (8.2) YPA, two TDs, no picks and two sacks. I wanted the Rams to attack down the field more - a play action, deep pass on the last series would have been great rather than the gimmicky jet sweep Seattle read perfectly.
• Cooper Kupp likely tore his ACL, a big blow to the offense which hasn't quite been itself since he hurt himself the first time. I imagine Josh Reynolds will get another shot to replace him.
• Robert Woods (5-4-89 and three rushes for 17 more yards) had his usual day, while Brandin Cooks went 12-10-100 and ran in a TD on a jet sweep. Both might see a slight uptick with Kupp likely out. Both receiving TDs went to TEs, Gerald Everett and Tyler Higbee, respectively.
• Todd Gurley had a (pedestrian for him) 16-120-1 line with 4-3-40 as a receiver. He always gets his and has now scored a TD in 13 straight games. (The record is 18.)
• Russell Wilson had a big fantasy day - 176 passing yards, three TDs, no picks and 92 yards on the ground. Because rushing yards are typically worth double, that's the equivalent of 360 passing yards. He did lose a fumble and take four sacks.
• It's time the Seahawks stopped pinching Rashaad Penny, who had 12 carries for 108 yards and looked faster and more nimble than Mike Davis (11-for-58, 6-4-22-1). Chris Carson is iffy for the team's next game on Thursday night, so Penny could see more work.
• Tyler Lockett (6-5-67-1) was the only receiver who did anything. Doug Baldwin had a meager 5-5-39 line.
• Who besides everyone except Mike McCarthy knew Aaron Jones (15-145-2, 5-3-27) would be good if he only got the chance? I had some fun trolling Packers fans on Twitter:
you're playing checkers, Greg. McCarthy's playing 11-dimensional chess
— Christopher Liss (@Chris_Liss) November 11, 2018
• It's Jones' job now, and he's already in top-12 overall territory. Jamaal Williams had three carries for three yards.
• Aaron Rodgers was a caretaker this game, but he threw two TDs to Davante Adams (7-4-57-2.) Marquez Valdes-Scantling also saw seven targets but it was short stuff (6-for-44.)
• The original Brock Osweiler (5.8 YPA, no TDs, on pick, six sacks, one fumble) showed up again. DeVante Parker had 11 targets before hurting his shoulder. Danny Amendola led the team with a 10-7-72 line.
• Frank Gore went 13 for 90, while Kenyan Drake (eight carries) was a non-factor. Gore is having a nice, otherwise meaningless career-stats padding year.
• I laid the forest with the Chargers (-10) on the road, and it paid off. Even their B-minus game was enough to cover against the Raiders.
• Derek Carr threw away the Raiders' only chance at a cover when with five minutes left in the game on 4th-and-5th he spiked a ball under pressure. The announcers bent over backwards to justify the decision, implying the play had no chance. Yes, there was immediate pressure, but it was fourth and five with the game over on a stop. Any non-brain-dead QB worth throws it up for grabs there. The booth also insisted Carr was without question the Raiders QB of the future. I've defended Jon Gruden in the past, but if he sticks with Carr beyond this year, I'm out.
• Melvin Gordon (18-for-93, 6-5-72-1) had another monster game. If you ranked him second overall I wouldn't argue with you too much.
• Keenan Allen went 9-6-57-1, while the announcers went on and on about how great he was. Allen is a competent possession receiver, but he'll never be a gamebreaker like Odell Beckham, Antonio Brown, Julio Jones or the other true greats of the game.
• Philip Rivers did his usual (8.6 YPA and two TDs), though he did throw a pick. But on the (Derek) Carr scale™ it was a minor one, a downfield throw on third-and-long that served as a slightly below average punt. Tyrell Williams went 6-4-46, while Mike Williams didn't receive a single target.
• Carr is now a caretaker who isn't even covering the spread, and though he didn't throw a pick, he lost a fumble and took four sacks. Doug Martin had 15 carries, while Jared Cook and Jalen Richard combined for 15 targets.
• Ryan Fitzpatrick had his fourth 400-yard passing game of the year, but the Bucs had only three points to show for it. The booth in this game was obsequiously praising Fitzpatrick for his grittiness (he tried and failed to throw a block!), even though he threw two picks, lost a fumble and took two sacks. Chandler Catanzaro missed two short field goals, but most of the red-zone failures were on the QB. If Jameis Winston doesn't take over this week, he'll probably be playing elsewhere in 2019.
• Mike Evans had a modest 6-3-51 game, while Chris Godwin (7-7-103) and Jacquizz Rodgers (8-8-102) led the team. DeSean Jackson went 8-5-67, catching only short throws. O.J. Howard disappointed with a 2-1-15 line, and Peyton Barber had 13 carries for 61 yards.
• Alex Smith was a caretaker as usual, with 6.6 YPA, one TD and no picks. He also missed a wide open Vernon Davis on a deep throw and took three sacks behind a makeshift offensive line.
• Maurice Harris (5-5-52) again led the team in receiving while Jordan Reed (6-4-51) was a close second. Josh Docston (4-4-46-1) scored for the second straight week. Adrian Peterson had 19 carries for 68 yards.
• The Jets managed to fix the Dolphins defense last week and the Bills offense this week. Unfortunately for the rest of the league, they have a bye in Week 11.
• Matt Barkley (9.3 YPA, two TDs, no picks, one sacks) looked like Joe Montana. It's never been easier to play quarterback in the NFL, and it shows just how terrible Nathan Peterman and Josh Allen have been.
• Someone named Robert Foster (4-3-105) led the Bills in receiving. Zay Jones saw 11 targets and had eight catches for 93 yards and a score. Kelvin Benjamin, who I started in a league, went 3-0-0, despite at least one target in the end zone.
• LeSean McCoy went 26-113-2 and caught one pass for five yards on my bench. Marcus Murphy (14-for-69) was also productive.
• I didn't think it were possible, but Josh McCown was worse than Sam Darnold. Jason Myers can kick, though.
• The Cardinals covered the 16.5-point spread like bosses, sacking Pat Mahomes five times and slowing down his assault on the record books.
• David Johnson (21-98-1, 9-7-85-1) finally had the game you expected when you drafted him at 1.3. Good riddance to Mike McCoy.
• Ricky Seals-Jones (9-5-51) and Larry Fitzgerald (10-6-50) led the way, while the player I started over McCoy, Christian Kirk, went 6-2-8.
• Mahomes still managed 249 yards, two TDs, no picks and 21 rushing yards. Tyreek Hill (10-7-117-2) led the way and added a 20-yard run. Travis Kelce (7-6-46) and Kareem Hunt (16-for-71, 2-2-25) had modest games.
• Blake Bortles had a nice game - 320 passing yards (8.2 YPA), two TDs, no picks and no sacks. Donte Moncrief (4-3-98-1) scored on an 80-yard bomb, while Leonard Fournette 5-5-56-1 and T.J. Yeldon (6-5-51) made impacts in the passing game.
• Fournette struggled to find room 21-53-1 in his first game back from his season-long hamstring injury, but between that and the passing numbers, he had a big fantasy day. Carlos Hyde had three carries for five yards.
• Andrew Luck had 295 yards (9.8 YPA) against the Jags stingy pass defense, threw three TDs and one pick. He didn't take a single sack.
• Eric Ebron went 3-3-69-2 and scored an odd rushing TD, all in the first half. T.Y. Hilton (7-3-77) led the team in receiving, while Dontrelle Inman (4-4-41) and Jack Doyle (3-3-36) chipped in modestly. Marlon Mack (12-for-29) was a non-factor.
• Tom Brady had a disappointing game before being pulled in the fourth quarter. He had only 6.2 YPA, took three sacks and failed to throw a TD. Julian Edelman (12-9-104) and Josh Gordon (12-4-81) led the way, while James White (8-5-31) did little with his targets.
• Sony Michel (knee) returned and had to be healthy because he saw carries in garbage time after Brady was pulled. Cordarrelle Patterson had only four carries.
• Marcus Mariota (9.5 YPA, two TDs) had another strong game, post glove-removal. He also ran for 21 yards, but took two sacks.
• Derrick Henry went 11-58-2 from your bench, while Dion Lewis had only 57 yards on 20 carries. Corey Davis (10-7-125-1) had a nice game, while Jonnu Smith (3-3-45-1) scored for the second straight game.
• Matt Ryan had 330 yards, two TDs and no picks, but only 6.3 YPA, took two sacks and lost a fumble. Julio Jones (11-7-107-1) is a TD machine the last two games. Austin Hooper (11-10-56-1) also scored. Calvin Ridley (5-3-37) and Mohamed Sanu (8-6-47) were minor factors.
• Tevin Coleman (11-for-44) and The Judge™ Ito Smith (four carries, four catches) did little.
• Baker Mayfield threw three TDs (10.8 YPA), no picks and took no sacks. In fact, he had only three incomplete passes the entire game and rushed for 20 yards.
• Nick Chubb was the other offensive star of the game - he went 20-176-1 and 3-3-33-1. No Browns receiver had more than five targets or 39 yards, however.
• Drew Brees barely broke a sweat - 265 yards (10.8 YPA), three TDs, no picks and no sacks. He also had a QB sneak for a TD.
• The Saints big-two (Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas) had their usual massive games. Kamara went 12-56-2 and 5-4-46, while Thomas put up an 8-8-70-2 line. Mark Ingram got in on the action with 13 carries for 104 yards and three catches for 58 yards and a TD. Everyone has their way with the Bengals defense this year, though.
• John Ross, last year's disappointing No. 9 overall pick, went 6-2-39-1 at least. In this QB-rich environment, players like Andy Dalton are fine as one-year rentals, but there's no reason to hitch yourself to them for the long term. There's even less reason to extend a mediocre coach like Marvin Lewis. The Bengals have to be on the short list of teams that are furthest away from future Super Bowl contention.
• Mitchell Trubisky might not be a great real-life QB, but he's pretty good for fantasy. He passed for another 355 yards and three TDs, while running for 18 more and a TD on the ground. He didn't throw a pick and took only one sack.
• Allen Robinson went for 8-6-133-2 on your bench, while Anthony Miller put up a 6-5-122-1 line. Tarik Cohen was useful in PPR with 7-6-29 and a short rushing TD. Jordan Howard was just 11-for-21 and caught one pass for 11 yards.
• Matthew Stafford took another six sacks (16 the last two games) and threw two picks. At some point a bad start becomes a bad year. Marvin Jones went 7-3-55 before leaving with a knee injury in the third quarter, while Kenny Golladay went 13-6-78-1. It wasn't efficient, but if Jones is out, Golladay should see a lot of volume.
• Both Theo Riddick (7-6-60) and Kerryon Johnson (6-6-38-1) saw extensive work as receivers, something that should continue with Golden Tate gone, and especially if Jones misses time. Johnson (14-51-1 on the ground) scored twice, but lost a fumble.