Welcome to the fourth week of the NFL season and the RotoWire & FanDuel Fantasy Football Championship and also welcome to (ugh!!) the bye weeks.
Although the NFL sort of slides you in slowly with only two teams, Washington and Carolina, off this week and next week, it will be Tampa Bay and Chicago with the bye weeks. After that for several weeks there will be at least four teams on a bye each week.
While bye weeks are a torture for season-long leagues, I actually like the bye weeks when it comes to Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS). There are fewer players in the pool so there are fewer lineup differentials. To me less is better.
The RotoWire FanDuel Fantasy Football Championship is straight forward. We're running a $10 contest in each of the first 10 weeks of the season, where the top 150 users double their cash. You'll compete against fellow RotoWire readers as well as three experts: Kevin Payne, Jeff Erickson and Derek Van Riper. Beat all three experts in one week and you'll earn entry to Week 11's Free Play championship round. The top 120 players in that round will win a prize, with the first-place contestant coming home with $1,000 and a two-year subscription to RotoWire. You can sign up for this week's competition here.
Meanwhile, the rest of the experts here at RotoWire will be competing in a parallel contest. Last year, Mike Doria claimed the title, with Tate McIntyre grabbing the silver and Hunter Van Asten coming home with the bronze.
And last week, Joshua Fathollahi (jashfath) jumped into first place overall after winning the week with 171.26 points. Joshua had at least double figures across the board and benefitted from the high-scoring Saints-Falcons game that accounted for almost three-quarter of his points (115.36) led by Matt Ryan with 40.16 points.
You can check out the full expert leaderboard here, but here's the current top 10:
1. Joshua Fathollahi (jashfath) 491.12
2. Jake Letarski (rotojakeski) 448.46
3. John McKechnie (mckech3) 446.44
4. Scott Jenstad (oaktownsj) 440.88
5. Davis Mattek (DavisMattek) 437.78
6. Jim Coventry (Yrtnevoc) 437.42
7. Jeff Erickson (jefferickson) 429.16
8. Darin Brown (dabsabre) 427.56
9. Shawn Cwalinski (cwalinski) 415.42
10. Michael Rathburn (burnnotice) 414.36
Most weekends weather and wind will be playing a factor in who you pick for DFS. It appears that this will not be the case this weekend, but to double check on Sunday morning, here is the link.
For references purposes, the top three predicted scoring games are the following Cincinnati at Atlanta (54 points, over/under), New Orleans at New York Giants (52 points) and Miami at New England (48 points) with stacking those games should be pretty popular this week on the slate.
Good luck to everybody this weekend.
Value
QB Eli Manning, New York Giants vs. New Orleans Saints
FanDuel Price:$7,100
Yes, it is Eli with his recent outings for the last say year and a half of mediocrity. In come the New Orleans Saints and there definitely could be an air of chasing points in this game. And Saints QB Drew Brees is $1,300 more on the board ($8,400) so you can use the dough for the likes of Saints RB Alvin Kamara ($9,100) and Saints WR Michael Thomas ($9,000). And the Saints are tied with the Pittsburgh Steelers for allowing the most passing touchdowns in the league, 10 in the first three weeks.
QB Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons
FanDuel Price: $7,400
This game is the highest over/under on the board at 54 points and Dalton is $700 cheaper than his opposing QB, Falcons' Matt Ryan. The Bengals RB setup is banged up with Joe Mixon already ruled out for this weekend and Giovani Bernard has been dinged up recently but will play. Bernard only ran for 61 yards that were the yardage by the Bengals running backs against Carolina. Dalton faces a Falcons passing defense that has given up the eighth most passing yards in the league in the early going.
RB James White, New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins
FanDuel Price: $6,100
The move of placing Rex Burkhead on the injured reserve opens up more snaps for White along with rookie Sony Michel. Barring an entire change in the NFL universe, it is very hard to see New England's offense go through what they did or actually didn't do against the Detroit Lions the previous week. Michel could also be a possible value pickup at $5,900, but go with the known quantity at least for this week in White.
RB Carlos Hyde, Cleveland Browns at Oakland Raiders
FanDuel Price: $6,800
Fun fact, Hyde has averaged more points, 15.9, compared to Ezekiel Elliott (15.5) so far in the first three weeks. A lot of the attention will be on Browns QB Baker Mayfield, but Hyde has been very reliable and has taken the lion share of carries over teammates, Duke Johnson and rookie Nick Chubb in the backfield.
WR Allen Robinson II, Chicago Bears vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
FanDuel Price: $6,500
Chicago Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky and Allen Robinson II have three games in their pocket playing together and with the offensive system. In comes Tampa Bay who has given up the second most receiving yards per game so far in 2018 (only behind Kansas City). Robinson also has the most targets on the Bears this season with 28.
WR Sterling Shepard, New York Giants vs. New Orleans Saints
FanDuel Price: $6,200
This will go with the assumption that the Saints defense will be concentrating on WR Odell Beckham. In addition, it is expected to be a high scoring game with an over/under of 51 and the Giants offense started to show life last week in the win over the Texans. Shepherd has 19 targets in the first three games and is sure to get a handful against a suspect Saints passing defense that is tied with the Steelers for most receiving touchdowns allowed.
TE David Njoku, Cleveland Browns at Oakland Raiders
FanDuel Price: $5,200
The tight end category has been very depressed so far this season to the point that some are hoping that FanDuel adds another Flex instead of the TE spot. It should get better overall. With the arrival of QB Baker Mayfield, Njoku should be one of the players that benefits from a better passing game and he's 12th on the list for tight ends so you can spend more on our spots in your lineup.
High Risk/High Reward
RB Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys vs. Detroit Lions
FanDuel Price: $8,200
Elliott has been a disappointment so far this season for season-long owners, but the Lions could be the tonic for him. The Cowboys offense is a hot mess of garbage with problems on the offensive line and a lack of receiving threats. The result is that the opposing defenses can ease in and basically concentrating on stopping Elliott with 15.5 points. The Lions are last in the league in stopping the running game so if Elliott doesn't have a big day there could be problems the rest of the season.
WR Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints at New York Giants
FanDuel Price: $9,000
If you are going cheap in other spots on your lineup, Thomas has been one of the most reliable picks this season in the first three weeks. He has averaged 24.3 FanDuel points per game, second most on the slate outside of quarterbacks. While this game is outside of the dome, the weather is expected to be in the 70's and sunny so it should be as close to SuperDome weather as much as possible.
Steer Clear
QB Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers vs. Buffalo Bills
FanDuel Price: $8,500
Despite the impressive showing by the Bills defense the previous week against the Vikings, there is no doubt that everybody will be asking for the Bills to show me that you can do it again. And with that, Rodgers might be somebody to pluck out and start at quarterback. But the injury risk is just too much and the Packers appear to be nursing him until their bye week which is Week 7. In addition he is the third highest quarterback on the board so you can do better even paying up $100 for Tom Brady ($8,600).
WR Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers vs. San Francisco 49ers
FanDuel Price: $8,100
In a nasty twosome, Allen is listed as questionable with a knee and dental injury. He is expected to play, but has been a disappointment especially the last two weeks. He has averaged only 11.5 points per game. The flow of this game is a crap shoot without 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo out for the year and replacement C.J. Beathard under center. This could very well be a (Chargers RB) Melvin Gordon game with the contest already locked up by the third quarter.