The second "Beat Chris Liss" league took place last night. It's part of the $100-K grand prize, RotoWire Online championship offered by the NFFC. It's a 12-team full PPR format that has 1-QB, 2-RB, 3-WR, 1-TE, 1-FLEX, 1-K, 1-D and 10 bench spots. It also has third-round reversal whereby if you pick last in the first round, you pick not only first in the second but also the third, and last in the fourth. I drew the 11th pick.
Here are the results:
Here's my thought process, pick by pick:
1.11 Michael Thomas - I'm not a fan of Thomas in the first round, but to be honest, I didn't like any of my choices. A week ago, I'd have taken Jai Ajayi, but he's concussed, and now his quarterback might be out for the year. Devonta Freeman or Jordy Nelson were the other options, but ideally I wanted to start with two WR this format, and Freeman doesn't have enough ceiling to push me off that. I also considered Brandin Cooks who I have in a few places, but this was early for him, and Thomas has the better floor.
2.2 Jordy Nelson - Another player I didn't think I'd own, but here I am taking him over Cooks in the second round. At this point, I decided this would be a draft where instead of forcing "my guys" into an unfavorable slot, I'd take players I didn't love at value and within the positional structure I prefer. I do this in DFS baseball every once in a while - fill out one lineup I hate (that might look reasonable to others), just to test whether my preferences are really that important. So far I was two for two on players in whom I had zero shares.
3.2 Tom Brady - This was a reach, and after doing it, I wish I had taken Brandin Cooks to stack with him instead of Nelson (Aaron Rodgers was already gone.) It was either Brady, Rob Gronkowski or Christian McCaffery, and I made the rash pick in a six-point passing-TD format. While I expected to be (and was) aghast later at the QB values, I have a feeling Brady could throw 700 passes this year and put up a season for the ages, as the set-up is better than it's been for him since 2007.
4.11 Joe Mixon - I was hoping for McCaffery, but he went five picks earlier, so I took yet another player in whom I've had no interest all summer. Mixon might not even win the starting job, but if he does, there's monstrous upside in a good offense, albeit with a shaky offensive line.
5.2 Ty Montgomery - I've been hearing some buzz about him with Mike McCarthy calling him a "stud" and not hedging on Montgomery being his starter. You know he'll catch passes too because he's a former wide receiver. The problem is Montgomery could stay healthy as a WR, so I'm dubious he'll hold up as a running back. I was also 5-for-5 in players in whom I had zero shares elsewhere
6.11 Tyrell Williams - This was my first good pick. He's a starting WR with size and speed opposite injury-prone Keenan Allen in a good offense.
7.2 John Brown - I have Brown everywhere. He's just a player who's being mispriced due to uncertainty about his medical condition.
8.11 Tyler Eifert - The entire round I was waiting for Hunter Henry, but when I checked the tight end list in the NFFC software to find him, I noticed Eifert was still available. I was pretty sure I'd get Henry on the way back anyway, so I took him.
9.2 Hunter Henry - I like having two TE, as one can slot into the flex, and when you have Eifert you better have a good second one just in case. Henry's also a good hedge for Williams as one of the two will likely lead the Chargers in TD catches.
10.11 Jamaal Charles - Looking at my draft, I really did a modified zero-RB. I can't count on Mixon or Montgomery for anything, so it was time to stock up on backs with upside. Charles is getting healthy, and who knows what he has left in the tank after two seasons off? It's not like C.J. Anderson is a paragon of health, either, and if Charles, arguably one of the greatest backs of all time at his peak, is remotely himself, Anderson's status won't matter anyway.
11.2 Gio Bernard - Reports on Bernard are positive off the ACL tear, and he's both a valuable PPR option and a small hedge against Mixon not getting the job.
12.11 D'Onta Foreman - I have no idea where I'm supposed to draft him, but I'm fading Lamar Miller this year, and Foreman has looked good in camp.
13.2 Jeremy McNichols - Another rookie back with weak obstacles in his way. I'm not buying into Jacquizz Rodgers, and Doug Martin isn't good enough to take back the job if someone gets off to a hot start.
14.11 Robert Woods - I was good on speculative RBs at this point, but I needed a fifth WR. Woods has little upside, but if he is the No. 1 target in Los Angeles, he could catch 70 passes.
15.2 Houston Texans Defense - They're my top defense, and after I got snaked on Justin Tucker in the 11th round, I was happy to get one of my top choices at the position.
16.11 Paul Richardson - The former second-round pick came on down the stretch and in the playoffs last year, and after Doug Baldwin, there's no one of note standing in his way other than the injury-prone Tyler Lockett.
17.2 Dan Bailey - An excellent real-life kicker attached to a good offense.
18.11 Aaron Jones - A little bit of Montgomery insurance. While Jamaal Williams is ahead of him for now, Jones would be the pass-catching back should Montgomery go down.
19.2 Donnel Pumphrey - Another rookie having a good camp in a situation without anyone special blocking him.
20.11 Seth DeValve - In case my other TEs don't work out, I needed a Seth DeValve.
By Position:
QB Tom Brady
RB: Ty Montgomery/Joe Mixon
WR: Michael Thomas/Jordy Nelson/Tyrell Williams
TE: Tyler Eifert
FLEX: Hunter Henry/John Brown
K: Dan Bailey
D: Texans
B: Jamaal Charles, Gio Bernard, D'Onta Foreman, Jeremy McNichols, Robert Woods, Paul Richardson, Aaron Jones, Donnel Pumphrey and Seth DeValve.