It's been three weeks since the Rotowire annual Vegas get together. Each year a bunch of the writers split up into leagues to draft super early. So early, in fact, that I'm already missing a player for the year.
Since my league held the draft in the Caesar's Palace buffet we went old school with only the Rotowire football magazine cheat sheets and our personal notes to go off. Without a draft board, I've yet to see the full results of the rest of the league, but throughout the draft I took note of many of the selections the player picking after me, Jim Coventry, was making (in the nine spot; I picked eighth). Jim and I are both year-round football guys, so we certainly don't need anyone else's cheat sheet to build a roster, so it naturally caught my attention when it seemed like our personal preferences matched round-for-round. Because of that, I asked him to send me his full draft results to include here for comparisons sake.
Before we take a look though, here are the league parameters and a quick note that dictated the entire course of my draft:
- Standard scoring, 12-team format
- Starters: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, RB/WR/TE, TE, DEF, K
- Roster: 10 starters, 6 bench
In the blind pick selection I drew the fourth pick. I wanted something in the 6-10 range because of my targets for the first two rounds. Without giving it much thought, I immediately offered to swap draws with Jason Thornbury, who was doing the blind picking and who is the best football editor at Rotowire (if he's reading this, that is). So instead of pick numero four and Antonio Brown, I got:
[My picks are in bold.]
1.8 (8.) Melvin Gordon, RB (LAC)
1.9 (9.) LeSean McCoy, RB (BUF)
- Gordon is the reason I swapped picks with Jason, so when he was here it was a no-brainer. Had he been the fourth running back taken, however, I would have strongly considered Jordan Howard who turned out to be the fourth back taken instead. He was the only other running back after the big three I valued in the first. I certainly can't knock Jim's pick here, but I think one of the biggest impacts on these two tailbacks' respective seasons had a major impact on McCoy's excellence last year – Anthony Lynn. Lynn was McCoy's play-caller last year and now is Gordon's head coach. He's one of the sharpest in football at engineering an efficient ground game.
2.4 (16.) Dez Bryant, WR (DAL)
2.5 (17.) Jordy Nelson, WR (GB)
- This worked out perfectly. Had Gordon been gone when I picked in the first, I most likely would have taken Nelson. Knowing that many others view Gordon as the fourth tailback, I knew when swapping picks I might not get him and was completely okay with that possibility because I view Nelson as the No. 2 receiver behind Brown. Any draft where you get two players you value among the top six overall is a huge win. It was at this pick that Jim and I started a trend of taking players the other had great interest in. Had he or someone else take Nelson, Bryant was my next top target here. As two of the best red zone receivers in football, both are good bets for double-digit scores in any given year.
3.8 (32.) Allen Robinson, WR (JAC)
3.9 (33.) Terrelle Pryor, WR (WAS)
- My draft was going perfectly until this pick. I love Robinson's talent and am banking of course on a bounce back season, but easily one of my three most-coveted players nearly fell to this selection, only to get snagged, ironically by Jason with what would have been my third round pick. I view Joe Mixon as a title-winner this year and would not be at all surprised to see him finish among the top 3-5 running backs. He's a sensational value in the third. Had I kept the fourth pick I actually would have gone Antonio Brown and then Mixon in the second round to ensure I got him. Instead, I'll be crossing my fingers that Blake Bortles can actually put the ball within reaching distance of Robinson's sticky mitts. As for Jim, he plucked my backup plan if both Mixon and Robinson were off the board here. In fact, I was a near coin flip between these two wideouts given Pryor's high ceiling with Kirk Cousins under center. Beyond these two guys and Mixon, other players I might have targeted were Leonard Fournette, Isaiah Crowell, Brandin Cooks and Davante Adams. Only Adams was still around for my pick but believing he could last one more round, I opted for Robinson.
4.4 (40.) Ameer Abdullah, RB (DET)
4.5 (41.) Mike Gillislee, RB (NE)
- Easily the pick that had me most on the fence, I ultimately went with a guy whose ability I especially believe in and whose role could lead to an RB1 season. Alternatives I considered most – Martavis Bryant, DeVante Parker and Ty Montgomery – all have a wider range of outcomes in my estimation. Gillislee though is the safest bet for double-digit touchdown production after the top 10 or so tailbacks off the board. Given my RB rankings, it never crossed my mind that this might be a "reach" for Gillislee. In standard formats he and Montgomery are my top targets beyond the third round. What made this selection most difficult was the course correction from my original plan to go stud RB and three or four straight receivers. For Jim, the Abdullah pick signified probably our biggest difference in opinion for the draft. I felt (and still feel) Jim reached a solid round or more for a player in whom I have little faith. It's a misconception that Detroit improved their offensive line, as a 30-year-old T.J. Lang coming off hip surgery will not be a substantial upgrade over Larry Warford and the swapping of right tackles Ricky Wagner in lieu of Riley Reiff is much the same. In fact, this line is down its best player: Taylor Decker (should). So in actuality they will probably be no better than last year's version, and could even be worse. With Theo Riddick and Zach Zenner still around to limit Abdullah's workload, and given the latter's history of injuries and fumbling issues, he will likely stay off my draft board this year barring a major statement in preseason play.
5.8 (56.) Kelvin Benjamin, WR (CAR)
5.9 (57.) Pierre Garcon, WR (SF)
- I'm buying into a bounce back for the Panthers offense. And for that to happen I believe Benjamin, a now overlooked element of that equation, will have to be a big part of it. He dominated the first two games to start off last season before falling off a cliff because his rehab didn't allow him to achieve the conditioning he needed to thrive for 16 games. Two years removed from his ACL injury, I'm expecting greater consistency. At the cost of a third receiver, the upside his massive frame brings is well worth the price. Comparing picks here, I look at two receivers whose floors are the same, but one whose upside dwarfs the others. As a guy who is going to be volume-dependent, and who will likely cap out at 4-6 scores, I much prefer Garcon in PPR formats, and a good round or two later than this.
6.4 (64.) Doug Martin, RB (TB)
6.5 (65.) Adrian Peterson, RB (NO)
- In a 12-team, standard league when I already felt pretty good about my first five picks, I figured why the hell not, especially after Jim stole the guy I intended to draft here. The suspension and Martin's injury history won't scare me away from him this year. He's still the head-and-shoulders best talent in his backfield when he's healthy and I believe that a proud and prepared "Muscle Hamster" is going to prove it in the second redemption season of his career. As for AP, I've never owned him and decided that crowded backfield, age and all, he's still the type of talent that could be a league-winner. I've never owned him partially because he wore purple and I'm a diehard Cheesehead, but mainly because I rarely, if ever, was in a position to draft him and have the value feel right. Now suiting up in arguably the best offense of his career and donning much more appealing colors, the price was too good to pass up.
7.8 (80.) Samaje Perine, RB (WAS)
7.9 (81.) Andrew Luck, QB (IND)
- After missing on Martin I was not going to miss on another of my favorite mid-round running backs. I absolutely LOVE Perine's game and believe he'll be an instant contributor to a very good offense. Even though he'll likely start the season in a timeshare, I have no doubt this backfield will become his. He runs low, showcases nice vision, suddenness and balance, and sweet fancy Moses does he add thunder to a ground game. His Marvel-like power rivals any back in the league. As for Luck, I was glad Jim took him because of who I intended to snag with my next pick. Between Luck's shoulder, porous offensive line and ho-hum receiving corps, I'm not a buyer this year. And I held that belief well before the recent developments with the dreaded PUP list.
8.4 (88.) Cameron Meredith, WR (CHI)
8.5 (89.) Marcus Mariota, QB (TEN)
- I knew I couldn't pass up Mariota here if I wanted him, but boy was I pissed when Jim grabbed Meredith. In all reality it was highly unlikely he'd fall to my next pick, but he was easily my top ranked receiver left and I sure didn't like how many of my targets Jim was landing. Sure, I disagreed with several of his picks by this point, but in general felt he was on pace for a terrific draft and set to be stiff competition. Grabbing Mariota at 89 overall was always going to be my move because this was the latest I felt I could safely ensure I got him. The only starting quarterbacks I targeted in this draft were him and Cousins.
9.8 (104.) Delanie Walker, TE (TEN)
9.9 (105.) Eric Ebron, TE (DET)
- I was just a few picks away from getting either the tight end I really coveted (Kyle Rudolph) or the pairing I preferred (Corey Davis), but instead I got another safe tight end I feel comfortable with in Mr. Walker. Despite all the weapons on the outside, I wouldn't be surprised to see him lead the Titans in receiving touchdowns. I didn't like the Ebron pick at the time, but after weighing it more in the three weeks since the Vegas trip ended, I'm on board with it. While I'm generally not high on Detroit's offense this year, it does need more playmakers and Ebron could step into a big role. He's physically gifted enough to excel with the extra targets and someone I may add to my draft boards if his hamstring issue proves minor over the next few weeks.
10.4 (112.) Kenny Britt, WR (CLE)
10.5 (113.) Kevin White, WR (CHI)
- I'm not sure any of Jim's picks ticked me off more than this one. Call the ND alum biased all you want, but I'm a firm believer in DeShone Kizer's physical gifts and won't be surprised at all if he steals the offensive rookie of the year away from one of the many awesome young running backs. I'm also a big believer that Britt and he will form a beautiful relationship. As a rookie with plenty of development to go in the mental game, Kizer is going to throw what he sees. And he will often see Britt's long, muscular frame shielding defenders for a team that may be regularly playing from behind. After thriving as much as anyone possibly could in a dreadful Rams offense, Britt will ramp up his production to high-end WR2 numbers this year at a dirt-cheap price. Losing Britt one pick before I planned to take him may have put me on tilt, since White is barely on my draft board. While I'm not thrilled with this pick and only made it because I saw a huge ceiling with White two years ago before he became the No. 7 overall pick in the NFL Draft, at the very least I feel like he's going to have plenty of opportunities to prove himself for an invested Bears team that needs playmakers. That is of course if he can finally stay healthy.
11.8 (128.) Ken Dixon, RB (BAL)
11.9 (129.) Jack Doyle, TE (IND)
- Well crap. I was thrilled at the time of this pick to land a player I viewed as the most talented in his backfield. Of course that's the risk with drafting in early July when training camp and the preseason are bound to turn up some injuries. With Dixon (knee) now out for the year at least I know who my first cut will be when transactions start around September. As for Jim's second tight end selection, I can't knock it in theory. Luck loves his tight ends, particularly in the red zone, but as we're now seeing with the cat-and-mouse narrative over Luck's shoulder injury, the Colts offense could be in more trouble this year than usual. I expect Luck's recovery to lag into the season and the Indy O to get off to a dreadful start. Personally, I'm staying away from any Colt I can't snag with one of my last picks – which is why Erik Swoope is the only one I own in any MFL10 leagues.
12.4 (136.) Ben Roethlisberger, QB (PIT)
12.5 (137.) Andy Dalton, QB (CIN)
- Dalton is quite possibly my favorite backup QB option. His schedule is fantasy friendly, he actually has a healthy Tyler Eifert this summer and the additions of Joe Mixon and John Ross are huge. Everyone is fretting about the offensive line, but it's far too soon to tell if they're going to be a liability. Moreover, Dalton is a sharp study and a tough son-of-a-gun who managed to produce 24 total TD's last year and over 4,200 yards passing despite missing Eifert, A.J. Green and Giovani Bernard for what amounted to 21 games and change. As for Big Ben, it's likely I wouldn't have been able to say no if he'd actually been sitting there a pick later. Frankly though, if you're adding Roethlisberger as your backup, you're going to have a season-long headache of picking a starter, so I was glad to get Dalton instead who will need a primo matchup for me to bench Mariota.
13.8 (152.) Josh Doctson, WR (WAS)
13.9 (153.) Robert Woods, WR (LAR)
- Beyond the ideal start with my first two picks, adding Doctson this late was perhaps the pick that excited me most. His combination of size, elite athleticism and strong hands remind me of a more fluid Alshon Jeffery. He's had a healthy offseason and could be poised to explode in an offense that has potential to rival the best in the league. In fact, I like Doctson's potential fantasy impact significantly more than I do White's, which made me feel even luckier to land him here as my fifth wideout. Woods is not on any of my draft boards and that's unlikely to change. Jared Goff may improve some, but there's no telling who his favorite target will be and a fairly good chance whoever it ends up being can be had off waivers at some point this year.
14.4 (160.) Los Angeles Rams DEF (a.k.a. Wade Phillips' D)
14.5 (161.) Jacksonville DEF
- I hadn't considered the Rams defense until Jim announced his pick as the "Wade Phillips defense." It makes sense given how brilliant a defensive coordinator Phillips has been throughout a long, storied coaching career, but I have always tried to stay away from defenses that have an offense that is a liability. While Aaron Donald, Robert Quinn and Alec Ogletree are awfully gifted talents and anchor a strong front seven, the Rams will struggle with bad field position, time of possession issues and a weak secondary. Jacksonville has serious talent on all three levels and an offense that can move the ball. If Bortles can cut down on his turnovers, this defense is set up to make life difficult against a gravy schedule. Meetings with the Jets, Browns, 49ers and Rams should lead to some big games.
15.8 (176.) Zay Jones, WR (BUF)
15.9 (177.) Jonathan Williams, RB (BUF)
- I was between a handful of young receivers here that could turn into strong contributors on their offenses and Jones made the most sense given that he was a high second round pick for an offense with no clear No. 2 receiver beyond an injury-plagued Sammy Watkins. Given his prolific college career and pro-ready traits, I like Jones as my last skill player. Likewise, Jim sticking with the Bills offense in this round made sense for him. If McCoy were to miss any significant time, Williams could make a nice weekly start.
16.4 (184.) A Kicker
16.5 (185.) Sebastian Janikowski, K (OAK)
- Here is my kicker. He's a big guy with a big leg on a loaded offense. I'll take it. Jim drafted a kicker too. Presumably to kick the ball.
For any comments, mockery or questions, Follow and Tweet at me: @Hoover_L_A
You should also follow Jim on Twitter: @JimCovFootball