Vegas has now posted their win totals and World Series odds for each team, giving the savvy bettor an opportunity to wager before bookmakers can adjust. Even though the first exhibition games have yet to be played, we have a sense as to how teams will perform in 2013. Here are my Win-Loss projections, along with the Vegas lines on Wins, Winning the Pennant, and Winning the World Series, with a few wagers I like thrown in for good measure.
AL EAST | W | L | WINS | PENNANT | WS |
New York Yankees | 89 | 73 | 86.5 | 13-2 | +1250 |
Tampa Bay Rays | 88 | 74 | 85 | 12-1 | +1600 |
Toronto Blue Jays | 83 | 79 | 86.5 | 12-1 | +1600 |
Baltimore Orioles | 81 | 81 | 76.5 | 20-1 | +5000 |
Boston Red Sox | 76 | 86 | 79.5 | 14-1 | +2000 |
AL CENTRAL | W | L | WINS | PENNANT | WS |
Detroit Tigers | 91 | 71 | 90 | 4-1 | +800 |
Chicago White Sox | 83 | 79 | 80.5 | 20-1 | +4000 |
Kansas City Royals | 81 | 81 | 79 | 25-1 | +5000 |
Cleveland Indians | 77 | 85 | 77.5 | 20-1 | +9000 |
Minnesota Twins | 65 | 97 | 64.5 | 50-1 | +10000 |
AL WEST | W | L | WINS | PENNANT | WS |
Los Angeles Angels | 92 | 70 | 89.5 | 9-2 | +600 |
Texas Rangers | 88 | 74 | 87 | 13-2 | +1500 |
Oakland Athletics | 86 | 76 | 83 | 16-1 | +3200 |
Seattle Mariners | 75 | 87 | 76.5 | 40-1 | +7000 |
Houston Astros | 63 | 99 | 59.5 | 100-1 | +25000 |
NL EAST | W | L | WINS | PENNANT | WS |
Washington Nationals | 92 | 70 | 90 | 15-4 | +800 |
Atlanta Braves | 89 | 73 | 86 | 7-1 | +1500 |
Philadelphia Phillies | 81 | 81 | 81.5 | 25-1 | +1650 |
New York Mets | 73 | 89 | 74 | 40-1 | +8800 |
Miami Marlins | 61 | 101 | 64.5 | 50-1 | +20000 |
NL CENTRAL | W | L | WINS | PENNANT | WS |
Cincinnati Reds | 91 | 71 | 89.5 | 6-1 | +1200 |
St. Louis Cardinals | 85 | 77 | 85.5 | 9-1 | +1800 |
Milwaukee Brewers | 81 | 81 | 79.5 | 18-1 | +5000 |
Pittsburgh Pirates | 77 | 85 | 79 | 25-1 | +6500 |
Chicago Cubs | 75 | 87 | 72 | 40-1 | +10000 |
NL WEST | W | L | WINS | PENNANT | WS |
Los Angeles Dodgers | 91 | 71 | 89.5 | 4-1 | +650 |
San Francisco Giants | 86 | 76 | 86 | 7-1 | +1000 |
Arizona Diamondbacks | 83 | 79 | 81.5 | 25-1 | +5000 |
San Diego Padres | 76 | 86 | 74.5 | 40-1 | +8500 |
Colorado Rockies | 71 | 91 | 71.5 | 50-1 | +10000 |
Orioles over 76.5 wins
It seems like everyone, including Vegas, does not believe the Orioles can repeat their incredible 2012 season win total of 93. They certainly had a lot of favorable bounces last year, but are still a solid team with Matt Wieters, Jim Johnson and Adam Jones. Even with a Baltimore chop to .500 in 2013, their 81 wins are 4.5 more than the line, and the largest differential among my predictions.
Blue Jays under 86.5 wins
Am I the only person who thinks an increase of nearly 14 wins from last season is a bit of a reach for Toronto? The new-look Blue Jays won just 73 games last season, but are being picked by many to win the uber-competitive AL East. Jose Reyes is good, but not that good, and I just do not see that much improvement, or a trip to the post-season in 2013.
Astros over 59.5 wins
When was the last time any franchise had three consecutive 100-loss seasons in a row? The Detroit Tigers did it from 1994-96. And, in the past 50 years, only one other franchise, the New York Mets, has done so (1962-65). It will not be easy, but the team that scored the fewest runs in baseball will be helped by their move to the AL and the addition of the designated hitter. The Astros have a .465 winning percentage against the AL, a mark they have achieved only twice in the past six seasons in the NL. As a result, I believe they will narrowly avoid 100 losses in 2013.
Marlins under 64.5 wins
The same cannot be said for Miami. With Houston moving to the AL, and a roster that was decimated by the epic-fail that was their trade with Toronto, the Marlins should be able to claim the worst record in the NL. Without Reyes, Mark Buehrle or Josh Johnson, the 2013 season will not make the Miami-Dade County $2.4 billion debt any easier to swallow.
Dodgers 4-1 to win NL Pennant
On paper, the Washington Nationals may be the best team in baseball, adding Dan Haren, Rafael Soriano and Denard Span to their roster. But, as a lifelong Yankees fan, I know that money talks. Adding Zack Greinke to a pitching rotation that already has Clayton Kershaw, Josh Beckett and Chris Capuano makes Los Angeles and their league-leading $213 million payroll my pick to win the NL Pennant.
Value Bet: Giants 7-1 to win NL Pennant
They are still the champs until someone beats them.
Angels 9-2 to win AL Pennant
The Detroit Tigers, with the 2011 and 2012 MVPs, Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera, will run away with the division this year, and be the first to clinch a playoff spot. But, the lack of competition during the regular season will be their downfall, losing to Josh Hamilton and the Angels in the AL Championship, setting the stage for an all Los Angeles World Series. Not surprisingly, the Angels $152 million payroll is second only to the Yankees in the AL, but that includes the $27.5 million being paid to Alex Rodriguez, who may not play until July.
Value Bet: Rays 12-1 to win AL Pennant
Their chances improve greatly if they edge out New York for the AL East title, avoiding the Wild Card play-in game.
Angels +600 to win World Series
Free-agent Hamilton helps bring home the championship that 2012 free-agents Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson could not.
Value Bet: Rays +1600 to win World Series