I began profiling promising free agent adds in Week 5 of the 2011 season under the premise that if your team has an unappealing player toiling in that last bench spot, it would be worth rolling the dice on someone who could be poised to become a hot waiver pickup after the coming week's games. Anticipating those breakout candidates a week ahead of their emergence can keep you one step ahead of your competition on the waiver wire and potentially ensure you don't lose out on an impact player.
The tactic, I believe, can be worthwhile many weeks provided you don't change out that last bench spot every week and eventually release the impact player you were looking for all along. Entering Week 1, however, the idea is not as worthwhile when considering that it's much more difficult to really pinpoint a wasted bench spot prior to any games having been played. Nevertheless, I've settled on my five favorite deep pickups that could become hot waiver adds after Monday night's games. If you have, say a second defense on your bench, or perhaps a reserve IDP in those formats, or even a third QB unnecessarily taking up a spot, then maybe these guys are for you. If you have a full allotment of sleepers and potential breakouts filling your ranks, then it's likely better to play the wait-and-see game for at least one week. You may still get one of these names off waivers if they pop, or you may well find another name worth grabbing after the season's first week.
I apologize for the late post given the presence of two guys going in tonight's game, but the early start to the week forced a lot of info cramming into just a few days. Good luck to everyone as the fantasy season kicks off and check back with this blog in future weeks to find those unknowns stars before anyone else in your league.
Ryan Broyles, WR (DET) – I've said it before and I'll say it until he proves me wrong: Ryan Broyles will finish the year as Detroit's No. 2 receiver. He's not the explosive deep threat that Titus Young is but he's a significantly better route runner and has softer, more reliable hands. He's a perfect fit for the slot in Detroit's high-flying aerial attack and will steal Nate Burleson's snaps in short order. He played in the latter half of the preseason despite tearing his ACL last November and looked very sharp in limited action. He may be a tad slow out of the gate but by Week 3 there's a good chance he'll be snatched up in many leagues, particularly PPR formats. After all, this is the NCAA FBS all-time leader in receptions.
Dwayne Harris, WR (DAL) – It was just two preseason games, one last summer and one this past August, but Harris displayed some serious playmaking ability in those contests in which he had at least 115 yards and two scores in each. Though he doesn't have particularly good size at just 5-foot-10, 200 lbs., Harris is an elusive runner after the catch who gets to top speed quickly and is difficult to arm tackle (as evidenced by his beautiful 39-yard score versus the Rams this preseason). Last year proved just how big a role the No. 3 wideout can see in Dallas as Laurent Robinson came out of nowhere to post 11 touchdowns. And that role could be even larger this season with Jason Witten's (spleen) health in question and both Miles Austin (hamstring) and Dez Bryant (knee tendinitis) dealing with chronic leg issues. Harris will contend with Kevin Ogletree for targets out of the gate, but the latter is far from a dynamic player and doesn't offer the upside of a Harris. If things break right, Harris has Victor Cruz-esque potential, and that's why he's my top candidate to make that type of from-nobody-to-fantasy-star leap. That process could begin Week 1 if Austin sees any kind of limited action.
Knowshon Moreno, RB (DEN) – The huge chip residing on Moreno's shoulder after being booted out of his starting job last year and then tearing his ACL does not figure to go away anytime soon. The former first-round pick ran like a man possessed during the preseason and if he continues running with so much aggression and toughness when the games matter, John Fox will have a tough time keeping him off the field regardless of who else is ahead of him. Ronnie Hillman is a dynamic player but he's still an inexperienced rookie who has already been plagued by a hamstring issue and will be charged with protecting Peyton Manning on passing downs. If his leg seizes up again or he struggles to keep the franchise clean, he could be leapfrogged. As for Willis McGahee, he's a gritty between-the-tackles bull who could succumb at any point to injury as he'll turn 31 in October and has seen a lot of big hits over a long career. If that door opens even a crack, Moreno could stiff-arm right through it.
Joique Bell, RB (DET) – Kevin Smith has the job for now. Mikel Leshoure is waiting in the wings. After Week 2's matchup with the Niners, Smith, who's already dealing with another ankle injury, may be limping the rest of the year or waiting for a fracture to heal. The job would appear to fall into Leshoure's lap when he comes off suspension entering Week 3, but he's also coming off a torn Achilles and a hamstring tweak that slowed him in the preseason. Bell, who has finally made an active roster, has excelled for three straight summers and three different teams in the preseason. He's not particularly fast or elusive, but he's a decisive, north-south runner with good size (5-11, 220) and strength to fight for extra yards. He's also a very capable receiver with nice hands out of the backfield. When he's been on the field he's been consistently productive and if Smith or Leshoure get dinged up early (a good possibility), Bell might just seize a share of the opportunities and create an unexpected committee in Detroit.
Ramses Barden, WR (NYG) – I've liked Barden ever since he came to New York in the 2009 draft class and outplayed Hakeem Nicks for most of their first preseason as Giants. It's hard not to like the potential of a 6-foot-6, 225-pounder with strong hands, good body control and nice overall athleticism. He's not the fastest guy, but he moves smoothly in and out of his breaks for such a big target and he can uses his length and size to create yards after the catch by slipping tackles. The aspect of his game to love though is his ability near the goal line. Given his size, he could become a nightmare matchup in the red zone for Eli Manning and with Victor Cruz and Nicks, it's hard to imagine Barden ever drawing a top-notch defensive back in coverage. Rueben Randle, who also offers nice size and athleticism, will certainly get his shot at staking the No. 3 role in this elite passing offense, but he's an inexperienced and somewhat raw product. Domenik Hixon is also in the mix as the most experienced of the three, but he's highly brittle (two ACL tears in two years) and has nowhere near the upside of either big guy. If Nicks' foot limits his snaps against Dallas, Barden could get a shot in three-receiver sets and be just a few nice plays away from carving out a more prominent role.