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ADP Trends: Can You Wait to Build Your RB Depth?

By now you've been inundated with countless articles telling you how thin the running back position is this season. Once you get past the top six backs, virtually all of the remaining backs have some sort of a flaw that deters a variety of owners.  But while you can act as fast as possible and grab yourself a pair of running backs within the first few rounds, the question of depth then comes into play. Some like to use a running back in the flex position all year long, while others are simply worried about making it through the bye weeks. No matter which side of the fence you are on, you can make your ultimate decision on draft day with the help of the ADP trend report.

However you choose to spend your first four picks in your draft, come the fifth round, you have some serious decisions to make about your roster. Maybe you grabbed two solid backs and are fine waiting until later for a third, but if you have just one because you went for help at the quarterback and wide receiver position (or tight end), then you're probably thinking that you need to build up your backs with some sense of urgency. Maybe you do, and maybe you don't.

The list below shows you what is happening at the position once the top 25 running backs come off the board. Based on current ADP ranks, the top 25 are gone before the end of the fourth round in leagues of 12 or more teams. In 10-team leagues, they're gone before the end of the fifth. But once those players are gone, the most recent trends show that owners are more inclined to wait on the position rather than pass up productive talent elsewhere.

Current ADPChange1 Week AgoChange2 Weeks AgoOverall Trend
BenJarvis Green-EllisCIN63.75-16.7|PERCENT|53.091.2|PERCENT|53.74-15.7|PERCENT|
C.J. SpillerBUF67.40-30.0|PERCENT|47.17-3.5|PERCENT|45.50-32.50
Donald BrownIND67.44-6.0|PERCENT|63.367.6|PERCENT|68.151.1|PERCENT|
Mark IngramNO68.86-21.1|PERCENT|54.32-2.7|PERCENT|52.86-23.2|PERCENT|
Jonathan StewartCAR69.45-21.1|PERCENT|54.80-0.9|PERCENT|54.33-21.8|PERCENT|
Peyton HillisKC76.7616.6|PERCENT|89.527.1|PERCENT|95.8824.9|PERCENT|
Ben TateHOU76.85-13.2|PERCENT|66.71-1.4|PERCENT|65.80-14.4|PERCENT|
Stevan RidleyNE78.89-7.2|PERCENT|73.19-1.5|PERCENT|72.09-8.6|PERCENT|
James StarksGB81.11-33.1|PERCENT|54.30-2.2|PERCENT|53.12-34.5|PERCENT|
Roy HeluWAS85.38-19.9|PERCENT|68.36-2.6|PERCENT|66.55-22.1|PERCENT|
DeAngelo WilliamsCAR86.85-8.4|PERCENT|79.531.9|PERCENT|81.06-6.7|PERCENT|
Kevin SmithDET93.31-12.0|PERCENT|82.082.7|PERCENT|84.29-9.7|PERCENT|
Cedric BensonGB96.99-13.0|PERCENT|84.36103.3|PERCENT|171.4876.8|PERCENT|
David WilsonNYG97.00-5.0|PERCENT|92.13-1.1|PERCENT|91.15-6.0|PERCENT|
Michael BushCHI101.73-7.3|PERCENT|94.301.4|PERCENT|95.64-6.0|PERCENT|
Ryan WilliamsARI102.952.2|PERCENT|105.173.1|PERCENT|108.425.3|PERCENT|

As it stands right now, all of these running backs are gone over a three round span – either five through eight or six through nine, with a pair of obvious exceptions towards the end. While that would indicate a need to act quickly, the overall trends tell a different story. Of these 16 running backs, all but four are dropping in the ranks, and dropping fast. Quarterbacks and tight ends are moving up in a hurry and by the end of this week, the running backs could be spread out through another round or two….or even three. 

Of the four that are on the rise, their increase is somewhat expected – Donald Brown is the Colts' primary regardless of the offensive line weaknesses, Peyton Hillis is expected to eat into a good amount of Jamaal Charles' carries while also catching passes out of the backfield, Cedric Benson is the new number one in Green Bay, and Ryan Williams still has a shot at supplanting Beanie Wells as the go-to guy in Arizona. It's very possible that by the end of the week, both Benson and Williams are at the top of this particular list rather than the bottom.

BenJarvis Green-Ellis was supposed to be the primary back in Cincinnati, but between some underwhelming moments at practice and a recent foot injury, he certainly hasn't run away with the job. He's going to compete for touches with Bernard Scott and possibly even Brian Leonard. While he could still assert himself during Week 1 (he won't play the final preseason game) owners don't seem to want to risk it on the Law Firm.

The drop for C.J. Spiller, though substantial, has a lot more to do with the rise of other players at other positions than it does with his role in the Buffalo offense. He is still locked in as the change-of-pace back and should see added reps with the coaches being more impressed with his pass-blocking. When Fred Jackson was lost to injury at the end of last year, Spiller filled in admirably and we all know Jackson is no spring chicken here, so you can draw your own conclusions with that. Spiller's current drop in the ADP ranks could provide you with a real nice bargain.

Not only do Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams have to share carries with each other, but they also have Cam Newton and possibly even Mike Tolbert poaching most of the goal line work. Stewart's recent ankle issue isn't helping his draft position either as you can see by the 21.1|PERCENT| drop this past week. The Carolina backs will likely continue to drop, but since the position is weak, they'll still retain some value.

Drops forMark Ingram, Ben Tate, andMichael Bush are fairly obvious as all three share the backfield with someone that is already getting the longer end of the stick. Each one will garner some playing time and could post some decent numbers during the occasional week, but unless there's an injury, none of them are going to see an increased work load.

Kevin Smith could start to see an increase over the next week and a half if he can prove healthy. With Jahvid Best on the Reserve/PUP list and Mikel Leshoure still dealing with a lingering hamstring issue, last year's Thanksgiving Day hero could start to shine a little earlier this year.

And as for Roy Helu and Stevan Ridley, both are in similar situations in that neither of their coaches is ready to commit to a starting running back right now and might not ever as the season progresses. Mike Shanahan is notorious for doing this, and maybe it was due to not having the right personnel, but Bill Belichek isn't too far off from it either.

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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over a decade on a variety of web sites.  You can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or for questions, thoughts or comments, email him at[email protected].