For years, the beginning of every fantasy football draft was all about the running backs. If you wanted to win your league, locking in at least two solid backs was the always the first step in building a championship team. However, over the last few years, more teams are starting to employ the back-by-committee approach and with two, sometimes three, guys getting touches in the backfield, the value of numerous players has dropped at the position. You've got a guy running between the tackles and one cutting to the outside. Usually the outside guy is also the pass catcher, but in some cases, there's a third guy involved there too. So with that, we've seen some of the gun slinging QBs and some of the play-making wide receivers and tight ends start to garner a little more focus in the early rounds as their point totals are usually greater than a guy sharing time in the backfield. Today we're going to look at the ADP trends for the Top 20 running backs and see how their draft positions have been affected by these changes that have taken place over the last few years.
Top 20 Running Backs
| Current ADP | Change | 1 Week Ago | Change | 2 Weeks Ago | Overall Trend | |||
| 1. | Arian Foster | HOU | 1.09 | -2.8|PERCENT| | 1.06 | 0.00|PERCENT| | 1.06 | -2.8|PERCENT| |
| 2. | LeSean McCoy | PHI | 2.18 | -2.8|PERCENT| | 2.12 | 2.4|PERCENT| | 2.17 | -0.5|PERCENT| |
| 3. | Ray Rice | BAL | 3.04 | 2.3|PERCENT| | 3.11 | 1.3|PERCENT| | 3.15 | 3.6|PERCENT| |
| 4. | Maurice Jones-Drew | JAX | 4.29 | 0.0|PERCENT| | 4.29 | 1.9|PERCENT| | 4.37 | 1.9|PERCENT| |
| 5. | Ryan Mathews | SD | 5.28 | 1.7|PERCENT| | 5.37 | 2.0|PERCENT| | 5.48 | 3.8|PERCENT| |
| 6. | Trent Richardson | CLE | 6.90 | -2.2|PERCENT| | 6.75 | 0.9|PERCENT| | 6.81 | -1.3|PERCENT| |
| 8. | Chris Johnson | TEN | 7.72 | 0.0|PERCENT| | 7.72 | 1.9|PERCENT| | 7.87 | 1.9|PERCENT| |
| 10. | DeMarco Murray | DAL | 10.36 | -0.7|PERCENT| | 10.29 | 0.8|PERCENT| | 10.37 | 0.1|PERCENT| |
| 11. | Marshawn Lynch | SEA | 11.62 | -1.6|PERCENT| | 11.43 | -0.5|PERCENT| | 11.37 | -2.2|PERCENT| |
| 12. | Adrian Peterson | MIN | 12.67 | -1.4|PERCENT| | 12.49 | 1.8|PERCENT| | 12.71 | 0.3|PERCENT| |
| 14. | Darren McFadden | OAK | 13.72 | 3.5|PERCENT| | 14.20 | 1.5|PERCENT| | 16.71 | 0.4|PERCENT| |
| 15. | Jamaal Charles | KC | 15.68 | -0.9|PERCENT| | 15.54 | 1.0|PERCENT| | 15.69 | 0.1|PERCENT| |
| 16. | Matt Forte | CHI | 16.64 | -1.1|PERCENT| | 16.46 | 1.5|PERCENT| | 16.71 | 0.4|PERCENT| |
| 19. | Michael Turner | ATL | 18.86 | -0.2|PERCENT| | 18.82 | -0.1|PERCENT| | 18.81 | -0.3|PERCENT| |
| 22. | Doug Martin | TB | 22.35 | -1.7|PERCENT| | 21.98 | 1.7|PERCENT| | 22.35 | 0.0|PERCENT| |
| 23. | Frank Gore | SF | 23.97 | -1.3|PERCENT| | 23.66 | 1.4|PERCENT| | 23.98 | 0.0|PERCENT| |
| 25. | Ahmad Bradshaw | NYG | 26.74 | -1.1|PERCENT| | 26.45 | 1.2|PERCENT| | 26.77 | 0.1|PERCENT| |
| 28. | Steven Jackson | STL | 26.82 | 0.1|PERCENT| | 26.86 | 2.4|PERCENT| | 27.50 | 2.5|PERCENT| |
| 29. | Fred Jackson | BUF | 29.86 | 0.4|PERCENT| | 29.97 | 0.5|PERCENT| | 30.12 | 0.9|PERCENT| |
| 30. | Chris Wells | ARI | 31.74 | -1.3|PERCENT| | 31.32 | 1.2|PERCENT| | 31.71 | -0.1|PERCENT| |
Well, I don't know about you, but the first thing I notice about this list is the draft position (first column) at which each player is ranked. While we may be in an era where committee-approaches are devaluing running backs, it's still pretty obvious who the most coveted players are in the first few rounds of the draft. Twenty of the top thirty picks are all running backs. Only ten players at the other three skill positions have crept into the top 30 overall which means if you want to solidify the position for yourself, you need to act fast.
There's not really a whole lot of movement here at the top. It's early still and this data is coming from just 78 participating drafts, so you would think the swings, both positive and negative, would be a little more dramatic, but, in general, people seem to be of like minds when it comes to your top running backs. The greatest increase you see is 3.8|PERCENT| for Ryan Mathews and yet he's still, pretty much, the consensus number five pick. On the opposite end of that spectrum is the 2.8|PERCENT| drop for Arian Foster who still remains at number one. All that basically means is that in two of the 78 reporting drafts, someone made a different pick at number one. Not a big deal; just a personal preference, obviously.
Even the slightest increase for Maurice Jones-Drew comes as a major surprise given what's happening between him and the Jaguars recently. MJD still has two years left on his deal in which he'll get paid $10 million, but apparently that's not enough for him. He has indicated that he will hold out for a new deal and word is that he will take it into the regular season if he and the team are unable to come to an agreement. The closer it gets to the start of the season, if this doesn't get resolved, you'll likely see him plummet in the rankings. Careful though. Even if we're staring at some ugly holdout, when it does come to a close, MJD will again be a very valuable commodity. Imagine he drops down a round or two and you're able to steal him for a bargain price.
Chris Johnson is definitely a player at a crossroads right now. It's right before him when fantasy owners seem to be considering taking a top QB or a top WR rather than a running back. Will CJ2K ever return to those days when he was a no-brainer number one pick? Can he recapture that magic and make an Aaron Rogers owner regret not taking him? It could be tough when we hear Titans offensive coordinator Chris Palmer talking about game plans that see Johnson getting fewer than 25 touches per game. If the Titans go with a stronger aerial game or Javon Ringer starts seeing a few more downs during the preseason workouts, we will likely see Johnson's ADP rank start to fall.
We're seeing a splash of it early on, but we could see even more movement for Steven Jackson, as we approach the season. While he saw a significant decline in rushing attempts last season, he still managed to rush for 1,145 yards and brought his YPC back up to 4.4, a serious increase from the career-low 3.8 he put up the year before. The guy is a true workhorse and now that he has survived the trade rumors and the talk that the team preferred rookie Trent Richardson to him, he's out to prove to the world that the team made the right decision. A more balanced offense with Sam Bradford another year wiser may keep Jackson's attempts down again, but it could also lead to a strong performance on the field as defense won't be able to just stack the box and force a rookie QB to throw.
Keep an eye on the overall trend for Dallas running back DeMarco Murray. While he is listed as the lead back, the Cowboys still haveFelix Jones who is in the final year of his rookie contract. If he [Jones] steps it up while playing for a new deal, he could start eating into the touches for Murray early on. Of course, health is an issue for both of them, so there are a few red flags to be noticed here.
And finally, Matt Forte is another guy who could start to see a decrease in his ADP if Michael Bush starts getting more work between the tackles and at the goal line. He's right there on the cusp of being leapfrogged by other skill players at other positions, so it might be a situation where it makes more sense to grab a top wideout than Forte in a platoon situation.
Lower ADP Running Backs to Watch: James Starks (46.97), Stevan Ridley (72.41), Mikel Leshoure (140.04)
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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over a decade on a variety of web sites. Follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy and for questions, thoughts, or comments, you can email him at [email protected].