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Early ADP Trends: Top 20 Quarterbacks

Since there's not enough data available to accurately discuss ADP trends in PPR leagues, we're going to stick with the NFL Standard –style leagues and break down some of the ADP trends, by position. It's always a helpful tool for you to use to see if you can really wait on a position and still find yourself a quality later or if you have to act quicker than you may think. Obviously position depth and lineup needs play a major factor as well, but seeing who's hot and who's not in the public eye is almost equally as important.

We'll start with the QBs here today, often considered one of the deeper positions in fantasy. And rightfully so as in most standard leagues you go with one quarterback and are unable to use them in your flex position. One caveat though, and that's with respect to your league scoring. Most leagues score passing TDs at three or four points, however, a number of leagues choose to make the passing TD equal to that of a rushing or receiving touchdown and have them at six points. If your league uses six points for a passing touchdown, you should, in all likelihood, bump up the value of quarterbacks in general, but even more so, the guys at the top of the leaderboards who usually play in some high-octane offenses.

ADP Trends for the Top 20 QBs

Current ADPChange1 Week AgoChange2 Weeks AgoOverall Trend
8.Aaron RodgersGB7.781.9|PERCENT|7.930.0|PERCENT|7.931.9|PERCENT|
13.Drew BreesNO13.460.2|PERCENT|13.49-0.8|PERCENT|13.38-0.6|PERCENT|
17.Cam NewtonCAR17.72-1.4|PERCENT|17.47-1.8|PERCENT|17.16-3.2|PERCENT|
18.Tom BradyNE18.51-0.9|PERCENT|18.340.9|PERCENT|18.50-0.1|PERCENT|
36.Matthew StaffordDET34.571.1|PERCENT|34.95-3.3|PERCENT|33.78-2.3|PERCENT|
51.Michael VickPHI50.070.1|PERCENT|50.10-2.1|PERCENT|49.07-2.0|PERCENT|
52.Philip RiversSD52.630.5|PERCENT|52.88-0.3|PERCENT|52.720.2|PERCENT|
64.Eli ManningNYG65.280.0|PERCENT|65.31-2.3|PERCENT|63.84-2.2|PERCENT|
74.Peyton ManningDEN74.780.5|PERCENT|75.12-0.6|PERCENT|74.67-0.1|PERCENT|
80.Tony RomoDAL81.782.4|PERCENT|83.761.7|PERCENT|85.214.2|PERCENT|
81.Matt RyanATL81.902.5|PERCENT|83.970.6|PERCENT|84.453.1|PERCENT|
86.Robert GriffinWAS88.104.0|PERCENT|91.581.3|PERCENT|92.745.3|PERCENT|
94.Ben RoethlisbergerPIT96.908.5|PERCENT|104.813.3|PERCENT|108.3112.1|PERCENT|
108.Carson PalmerOAK110.4010.1|PERCENT|121.533.1|PERCENT|125.3413.5|PERCENT|
116.Andrew LuckIND120.4710.9|PERCENT|133.634.1|PERCENT|139.1015.5|PERCENT|
118.Jay CutlerCHI129.999.0|PERCENT|134.003.4|PERCENT|138.5912.7|PERCENT|
123.Matt SchaubHOU128.249.7|PERCENT|140.733.4|PERCENT|145.4513.4|PERCENT|
138.Josh FreemanTB143.049.9|PERCENT|157.242.7|PERCENT|161.4112.8|PERCENT|
143Joey FlaccoBAL150.4911.0|PERCENT|167.054.7|PERCENT|174.9816.3|PERCENT|
154.Andy DaltonCIN157.7811.8|PERCENT|176.324..4|PERCENT|184.0316.6|PERCENT|

Overall

With the exception of Aaron Rodgers, the consensus number one pick, the quarterbacks in the top nine, have all seen a slight decrease in ADP over the last two weeks. That drop actually has more to do with the depth at the position and people simply looking for the players at the other skill positions. Running backs, the elite wide receivers and even a couple of tight ends are coming off the board quicker and quicker which is simply pushing the top quarterbacks down. Not a lot, as you can see by the sub-5.0|PERCENT| movement, but enough for you to consider waiting when it comes time for you to draft.

The back end of the group has seen an overall increase in current ADP rankings and that trend has more to do with larger leagues drafting, deeper benches and the desire of owners to grab a decent back-up before they lose out.  The movement within the group isn't that strong, but you'll notice players like Tony Romo and Andrew Luck, jumping over the player above them from two weeks ago. The difference is slight, but probably something just to take notice and file away for later if you notice a larger jump the closer we get to the start of the season.

Notes

You can actually use the current ADP and subsequently the future trends to establish yourself tiers within the position. Obviously, Rodgers sits alone as a first round draft choice, and then from there you can set up breaks based on ADP rank. Drew Brees, Cam Newton and Tom Brady are all second round draft choices in most leagues and are, more or less, comparable to each other. If you feel the need for a top five starting QB and you miss out on Rogers and say, Brees, you know that you'll have to act fast on either Newton or Brady. Otherwise, you're looking at a slight step down in production as the next group of quarterbacks to come off the board is drafted around the fourth and fifth rounds. If you look at the players' current ADP rankings, you'll be able to set up the subsequent tiers from there.

Save for drafts that occurred after the announcement last year, this is the first time we've seen Eli Manning drafted over his brother Peyton Manning. As of right now there's a nine pick differential, but that could easily change as we head into mini-camps and Peyton proves that his neck is okay and he's ready to start hitting his receivers like the old days.

Rookie quarterback Robert Griffin isn't too far behind both Matt Ryan and Romo and it should be interesting to see if, at some point, the hype of RG III carries him over the two veterans. It's too soon to recommend one way or the other asCam Newton proved last season that a rookie quarterback can easily vault into the top three if he can prove to fantasy owners that he will rack up consistent points.

And finally, keep an eye on Matt Schaub, who could easily climb back up the ADP ranks if A. He can prove that he is fully recovered from the Lisfranc fracture in his foot that he suffered last season, and B. His number one target,Andre Johnson can prove healthy as well. Schaub was considered a top 10 quarterback last season and his early ADP rank right now is actually a slight tick higher than that of Jay Cutler, who sits right above him.

We'll hit the running backs, wide receivers and tight ends as the week progresses and hopefully you'll be able to start doing some mock drafts with a better sense of where you should be drafting each of the skill players.

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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over a decade on a variety of web sites.  Follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy and for questions, thoughts, or comments, you can email him at [email protected].