At least a few times a week, I study the ADP trend report to see if there's anyone new on the rise, and if so, what are the reasons behind it. Sometimes, if you blink enough, you might miss a few things here and there this spring and not have the most current information on everything such as the scales tipping on a position battle somewhere. That's where the ADP trend report can help you the most. You can look at the risers and see who is trending upwards and then, if you like the player enough, can investigate whether they are worth your time. But be careful, sometimes you see a player on the rise that may not quite deserve it yet. They could in the long run, but certainly not to the point where some of their loyal, hometown fans are suddenly grabbing them in drafts.
Danny Duffy, SP KC (+27.5|PERCENT|) – Sure, manager Ned Yost said that the young lefty, along with teammate Felipe Paulino have a leg up in the competition for the two open spots in the back of the Royals rotation, but the battle is hardly over. Duffy's Cactus League debut was a stellar outing, recording five strikeouts in two innings, but his follow-up didn't go as well. H e coughed up a couple of runs in three innings of work, walked a couple of guys and actually got rattled early by some aggressive base-running and timely hitting from the Dodgers. Duffy definitely has the skill set to succeed, but he struggles with his command at times and could still lose out to a surging Luis Mendoza. He's still nothing more than a late round option in AL-only leagues and is probably best left on waivers in mixed leagues to start the season.
Trevor Plouffe, SS MIN (+12.0|PERCENT|) – Plouffe showed a little bit of power last season and ended up on a number of people's fantasy radar, given his middle infield eligibility. But this year, GM Terry Ryan says that he will be an outfielder and designated hitter. If that doesn't just sap the value out, then I don't know what does. Not that there was tremendous value to be had in the first place. The Twins are already locked into Ben Revere, Denard Span and Josh Willingham as their outfield configuration and Ryan Doumit will handle the bulk of the DH work. That's not to say that Plouffe won't receive his share of playing time, but certainly not enough to warrant an increase in ADP. He's really not going until very late, even in AL-only leagues, but he doesn't quite warrant a roster spot just yet.
Scott Rolen, 3B CIN (+16.8|PERCENT|) – There must be some super-deep NL-only leagues drafting right now for Rolen to see any sort of an ADP rise, let alone a double digit increase. He had a killer first half in 2010 but then all but vanished after the All Star break. In 2011, injuries trashed any sort of value he may have had most people assuming that he would just quietly ride off into the sunset. But he's healthy now and is actually having himself a pretty decent spring. He's hitting .500 in 14 at-bats with a .563 OBP and appears ready to start the season as the Reds starting third baseman. However, you don't want to be fooled into thinking that he could ever go back to the 20 home runs he hit in 2010. He's just not that guy anymore. Not to mention, the Reds are really looking to make a move with Juan Francisco or Todd Frazier, so Rolen could end up losing a lot more time down the road, healthy or not.
Kyle Lohse, SP STL (+14.3|PERCENT|) – So many people enjoyed Lohse as a cheap waiver pick up last year that they tend to forget about his usual track record or even just the 6.34 ERA he posted just the year before. Even in the wake of a subpar spring right now that has him with a 5.19 ERA over 8.2 innings of work, he is still seeing some serious draft love, particularly in the last week. Consistency is not his strong suit, by any means, so his level of reliability is pretty low despite such a strong year in 2011. If he falls far enough to you in a draft, then perhaps he's worth a flier, but he would have to fall pretty far from his current 230.78 ADP in order for that to happen.
Ryan Franklin, RP FA (+10.6|PERCENT|) – This here is an example of the combination of site rankings and auto-drafting. Franklin was released by the Cards late last June and the recent talk has been of retirement. So why the increase? Simple. How many times have you see someone do a mock for just the first few rounds? They want to see where the top tier guys are going, but then lose interest and switch to auto-draft. The site uses pre-season rankings and Franklin is still listed, so if someone lets the computer wrap it up for them, then he's getting selected, thus altering his ADP trend.
Trevor Bauer, SP ARI (+14.9|PERCENT|) -- This one is a bit different from the rest, because if you're in a long-term keeper league, then Bauer's ADP increase is expected. He was the Diamondbacks first round selection (number three overall) in the MLB draft in 2011 and has often been compared to Tim Lincecum when discussing his talents and his future. But if you're in a re-draft league, then he really doesn't need to be on your radar to start the season. The D-Backs rotation is relatively locked, and even if there were a competition for the 4th or 5th spot, Bauer needs some time spent in the minors to work on his overall game. He hasn't pitched above Double-A so there's a strong chance the team sends him down there again to start the season and work himself up from there. He's definitely one to watch and to keep on your radar, but his impact for 2012 might just be non-existent and that ADP increase is likely just for deep keeper leagues.
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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over ten years on a variety of web sites including Rotowire,FanGraphs and The Fantasy Baseball Buzz. You can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or email him at [email protected].