The Old and the Boring
Baseball, like many other endeavors in life, goes through cycles. Whether it's a juiced ball (or juiced body part) era, or a high-mound era, the only constant in the game is change. At one point there was an inefficiency in the game where advanced statistical analysis was being done (and subsequently influencing front office decisions, rather than being tossed to the side) by only a handful of teams. After the A's run of success and the publication of Moneyball - perhaps even before its publication - everybody has a phalanx of number-crunchers, and many of them have risen to the level of GM, or at least are sympathetic to those types.
Another such inefficiency in the game, and in the fantasy game alike, is the valuation of prospects and young players generally. Previously there would be some owners that would overvalue the known, proven veterans at the expense of young players coming up in their own system. Hence, you would see them time-and-again deal away those prospects for mediocre veterans. The canonical example is the Jeff Bagwell for Larry Andersen trade, but there are many others that fit that mold. It now seems as if many teams in Major League Baseball have gone full circle on this issue, overvaluing prospects at the expense of keeping productive major leaguers. Perhaps the A's best fit that mold, though there are extant circumstances like their ballpark situation influencing their decisions. But in trading Trevor Cahill, they dispensed with a young, relatively cheap pitcher in exchange for a pitcher (Jarrod Parker) that might not end up being any better than what they were getting from Cahill. They merely kicked the can down the road, rather than improving their short-term future.
We fantasy leaguers usually don't have to deal with the salary constraints that major league GMs do, let alone notions of media contracts or ballpark concerns. However, many of us in keeper leagues overvalue prospects in trades or young players in the draft process in start-over leagues. The new potential source of bargains often is the old-and-boring types. You won't find them on any breakout or sleeper lists, and they aren't among the elites at the top of your depth chart. Often, however, they are proven players coming off of down seasons - often called "Last Year's Bums." Frequently they get overlooked in your draft queue, or go for less than their projected value. Rarely are they targeted by your opponents, allowing you to get steady production at a discounted rate, allowing you to chase your desired targets elsewhere, even going over your targeted price if need be.
I drafted in the AL version of the LABR draft this past weekend. LABR (League of Alternative Baseball Reality) was the first experts' league in the industry, established by John Hunt of USA Today and Baseball Weekly, and it's in its 19th year. The auction I participated in was a 12-team, AL-only auction, where each team had a $260 budget to fill 23 roster slots. Essentially anyone who is a starting position player gets drafted in this league. Two of the players I purchased in this league fit the Old-and-Boring profile, Carlos Pena and Vernon Wells. Pena is returning from an injury-marred 2011 season that left him hitting just .225/.357/.462. He played through a thumb injury in April that marred his overall numbers, however. Batting average will always be a risk, but he's pretty close to being money in the bank to get you 25-to-30 homers. Likewise, Wells destroyed both his fantasy owners and the Angels with his awful start and a groin injury that landed him on the DL midway through the season. Yet despite all of his travails, he still managed 25 homers and nine stolen bases overall. His batting average has fluctuated wildly over the years, so it's likely last year was a rock-bottom season with a good chance for recovery.
You can land even bigger scores along the way. Think about how well the owners of Lance Berkman and Carlos Beltran did last year after picking them up on the cheap. Similar potential lies with the likes of Justin Morneau, Johan Santana or Jake Peavy. Are there risks involved with each? Of course, but in a market where each owner increasingly knows the younger playing pool and the new analytical metrics in the game, you need to find an edge somewhere. Looking towards the skilled but perceived to be declining veterans is one such potential edge. Try to build your own portfolio of potential options - they may give you that extra budget to land a true blue chip while you get better production than what you spent.