It's the first weekend of March and that means more and more fantasy baseball drafts are happening. Are you prepared? Do you have your strategy laid out? Depth charts? Contingency plans? Unlike in fantasy football where the abundance of injuries spawns a slew of free agents to enable you to get away with having a bad draft, your baseball draft is the key to your impending success. Sure, you can have a bad draft and still recover, but that road is both tedious and time consuming. You'll have a lot more enjoyable a season if you go in fully prepared and ready for anything.
That being said, one of your more helpful tools is the ADP trend report, especially at this time of year. Loads of mock drafts have been completed, handing us plenty of data to incorporate into your draft plan. We've been looking at a number of risers and fallers and different trends, so if you've been reading this series, then you're likely up to date on some of the latest draft movement. Today, we're going to look at some of more notable movement over the last two weeks and what it all means to you for drafting purposes.
Ryan Braun, OF MIL (+97.3|PERCENT|) – Everyone has had a watchful eye on Braun ever since it was announced that he would not be serving the 50-game suspension originally imposed by MLB, including us as we continue with our tri-weekly Braun ADP watch. Gone are the days when you could have had him in the third round as he has returned to his rightful place as a top 5 pick. That has actually opened up a number of options for you if you lucked out and were awarded a top six pick in your draft. If you look at the trend report, you'll see that with Braun's return, everyone in the top 12 has been trending down. But with Matt Kemp (-14.6|PERCENT|) and Miguel Cabrera (-16.9|PERCENT|) taking the biggest hits of them all, it means Braun is going number one in a ton of drafts now. Nothing wrong with that, but it's definitely good to know that the first round gets a little deeper for those picking late.
Phil Hughes, SP NYY (+12.0|PERCENT|) – Two weeks ago, Hughes took a solid 15.5|PERCENT| jump when word broke that he may have the inside track on the 5th starter's job for the Yankees. However, that rumor has since been squelched as manager Joe Girardi turned around and said that if Hughes doesn't win the job, then he could begin the season in the minors to work out as a starter rather than stay in the Yankees pen. Since that comment, Hughes has taken a 3.1|PERCENT| decrease in his recent ADP ranking.
Aaron Harang , SP LAD (+12.8|PERCENT|) – Now is definitely a time of year where you'll see veteran hurlers such as Harang jump up in the ADP rankings as more people end up turning to veteran starters in favorable situations as opposed to some rookie with no big league track record. Harang had a decent year in 2011 posting a 3.64 ERA and 1.37 WHIP and while most people will cite Petco Park as a contributing factor, Chavez Ravine in L.A. doesn't play to hitters very well either.
Will Venable, OF SD (+18.9|PERCENT|) – Venable has been doing extra work with new hitting coach Phil Plantier and has apparently "corrected" his swing. Whether or not that helps him with his plate discipline or ability to hit lefties better is yet to be seen, but it seems to have generated enough excitement to see him climb the ADP rankings. His speed gives him an edge over platoon partners Chris Denorfia and Mark Kotsay, but that might not be enough reason to grab him too early in your draft.
Vinnie Pestano, RP CLE (+11.7|PERCENT|) – With word that Chris Perez is out for 4-6 weeks with an oblique strain, Pestano has actually seen a 20.8|PERCENT| increase in just this past week. The situation in Cleveland is very similar to that in Los Angeles (NL) and Chicago (AL) as Pestano is clearly the better pitcher and should eventually land the closer's job at some point during the season. How soon is still up in the air, but this injury certainly opens the door a little wider.
Todd Helton, 1B COL (-12.5|PERCENT|) – Once a fantasy juggernaut, Helton is slowly slipping down the charts this year. Between a bad back that shut him down late last season, the presence of Jason Giambi and the arrival ofMichael Cuddyer, Helton might be taking a rest more often that his owners would like to see. The team certainly has the flexibility with outfielders like Charlie Blackmon waiting in the wings, so if the team is better off with Cuddyer at first and Helton on the bench, they just might make that decision.
Yuniesky Betancourt, SS KC (+13.5|PERCENT|) – Do not let this rise in ADP fool you. Word came out the other day that the Royals would give Betancourt a shot to win the second base job this spring and suddenly people are drafting him again. Truth is, Betancourt will end up as a utility player with the job going to either Johnny Giavotella or Chris Getz, most likely to Giavotella. Don't let Johnny G's drop in ADP fool you and do not draft Betancourt for even your middle infield slot.
Jon Jay, OF STL (-18.3|PERCENT|) – Hard to say why Jay's ADP is dropping like this, but you'll hopefully be able to take advantage. If others are forgetting about him, that's great. You'll be able to grab him in one of the later rounds and be handsomely rewarded. Jay was given the nod as the Cardinals' starting center fielder and will be able to help you out with batting average, as well as provide you with a little bit of pop and a little bit of speed. He's got "late round sleeper" written all over him.
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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over ten years on a variety of web sites including Rotowire,FanGraphs and The Fantasy Baseball Buzz. You can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or email him at [email protected].